We’ve covered the other conference AFC North , AFC East, AFC South and AFC West.

Now it’s time to cover the NFC, which I think overall is the stronger conference, and where I think the eventual Super Bowl champion will come from, but first we have to get through the dregs of the group.

Starting with the never that good but always somewhat entertaining division the NFC South.

Let’s get into it.

[ This project was started before the regular season kicked off, and I was not able to get through all eight divisions before the start of Week One. Unfortunately, I am just a man with a laptop and other responsibilites so alas, we will do the rest in real time, factoring in the week one results. This is the last division that won’t address what we have seen so far. ]

Atlanta Falcons - O/U 6.5 Wins

Any football team really needs a quarterback. It’s what this all boils down to. Being great isn’t necessarily a prerequisite of success, they can be merely functional, and a team can win. It helps if you have a franchise guy, but even just competent play can get you by. A lot teams win games on their QB not losing games more so than winning them.

The worst place to be is without a plan at QB. It makes people in this profession do weird things.

Back in March of 2024, after luring Kirk Cousins from the Minnesota Vikings with a four year, $180m ($100m of it guaranteed) contract, it looked like the Falcons were going to be set at the position in the near term.

They had really exciting young players, like running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and Drake London at wideout. Cousins veteran prescience and experience would help Atlanta rule a division constantly up for grabs without a bonafide yearly contender. It made sense.

Then former GM Terry Fontenot took a gamble, and drafted quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (who had just led Washington to the national championship game) in the first round at #8 overall. The Falcons opted to draft a quarterback of the future, before they needed to, instead of immediate help at the time, to bolster the team around Cousins and the skill players they already had.

Honestly, there is logic in the move. Sometimes, the best time to draft a QB is when you don’t need one. The Rams did it this year with Ty Simpson. Aaron Rodgers (behind Brett Favre) and Patrick Mahomes (behind Alex Smith) will always be the mold for “draft a QB when you have a starter and let him develop into a franchise guy” roadmap. It even happened to Rodgers in a role reversal with Jordan Love in Green Bay.

The logic is there, but it’s a massive gamble. You better be right, or risk not only your job but the franchise path for the next half a decade at least.

Given Penix’s injury history in college (two ACL tears, two shoulder injuries) it was an even bigger risk. The kind that regimes don’t survive, and lo and behold, there is new football leadership in Atlanta.

This is an extended background into the Falcons situation because 1) it really does weigh on everything about this team in 2026 and 2) I don’t have much to say about this team otherwise.

The Falcons signed Tua for pennies, after Miami decided to pay him $90 not to play for them. Tua is slated to start the season for the Falcons, but he has his own long list of health issues and cannot be expected to play a full season at this point. Penix was average in his starts before injury last year, but the fact he couldn’t wrestle the job away from Tagovailoa doesn’t project well for his job security moving forward.

The Falcons probably have the most depressing QB situation in the league outside of Cleveland, and that is what is going to hold them back this year. New Coach (speaking of Cleveland) Kevin Stefanski is a proven offensive coach that should help players like Robinson, London, and Pitts produce, but with a suspect offensive line and lack of a perimeter threat outside of London, this offense lacks depth across positions.

The defense isn’t much better, with no notable pass rush pressure, and really only Jesse Bates in the secondary as a defensive playmaker.

The Falcons are going to be in prime position to draft one of the signal callers in this year’s draft, and new General Manager Ian Cunningham and President Matt Ryan (yes, that Matt Ryan) are going to want to put their own stamp on the franchise and get out of the mistakes of the other guy. It’s going to be a long year in the ATL.

New Orleans Saints - O/U 7.5 Wins

The Saints, in the second year of the Kellen Moore regime, are hoping they found their QB of the future in the second round last year. Tyler Shough out of Louisville took the Saints by storm to end last year as the Saints won four of their final five games.

Shough wasn’t just a bystander but a major reason why New Orleans was competitive down the stretch. He finished his 9 starts with a 67% completion rate, 13 total touchdowns, and strong advanced metrics especially on third down, giving the Saints hope they found a gem in the 26 year old. Shough being on a rookie contract also gives the Saints the ability to surround him with strong receiving talent like Chris Olave (recently signed to an extension), and rookie wideout Jordan Tyson who (if he can stay healthy, he already is injured from camp and had injury issues in college) gives the Saints offense two very explosive pass catchers.

Outside of Shough and the two exciting receivers, there is not a ton to get excited about on offense. Travis Etienne Jr., signed in free agency, is in to carry the load in the run game while Kamara recovers from a sprained MCL—but the offensive line doesn’t project to be too impressive.

The defense is where things really start to get ugly for the Saints.

Cam Jordan and a deep defensive line should help, but overall a lack of playmakers at linebacker and in the secondary is not ideal in the modern NFL. The Saints scream to me as a team that is in desperate need of building up the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year, and I am lukewarm on the Shough/December hype, which seem mostly driven by playing teams with bad/backup QBs.

Carolina Panthers - O/U 7.5 Wins

The Panthers are on the right trajectory.

Carolina has gone from 2-15, 5-12, and 8-9 over the last three years, and backed into an NFC South division title last year.

The fact that the Panthers gave the Rams, a legitimate Super Bowl contender, all they could handle in the Wild Card round, was one of the more surprising developments around the league last year.

But as always, it comes down to the quarterback position and I am not sure how much I trust Bryce Young as a franchise quarterback. Physical bias aside (Young is 5’10. The list of successful sub 6-foot quarterbacks is non-existent), Young’s stats last year show more development as a game manager than a guy you took #1 overall after winning a Heisman at Alabama. With his fifth year option exercised, and Andy Dalton gone, this is the prove it year for Young, not only as the Panther’s franchise leader but more likely his career in the NFL.

The Panthers are doing all they can to help him, and last year’s first round pick Tetairoa McMillan (who won Offensive Rookie of the Year) is a legitimate star at receiver—the biggest threat they’ve had offensively since Steve Smith Jr. days. They drafted an offensive tackle in the first round, and invested heavily in the defense in the offseason (Carolina was one of the worst sack generating defenses in the league last year). However, the Panthers offense doesn’t reek of difference makers outside of McMillan, and losing Rico Dowdle to free agency won’t help.

Making matters worse, both starting tackles are dealing with season ending injuries (not ideal), forcing Rasheed Walker and aforementioned rookie Monroe Freeling into starting roles. The defense should be slightly better, but there is a lack of star power and depth on that side to truly shift the tide.

There is a world where Young shows another leap, McMillan keeps ascending, the Panthers have some depth players we aren’t talking about that ascend to stardom, and they win a weak division again—I just don’t see that being this world, especially with the schedule of playing the AFC and NFC North throughout the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - O/U 8.5 Wins

I really should have just named this series, “talking about every team’s quarterback situation”, because it feels like that’s all it really ever boils down to. It’s the nature of the league and sport. It’s why these guys get paid the most, and have their own Netflix show.

Had I written this section a week ago, it would have revolved around the uncertainty regarding Baker Mayfield’s contract situation—which ended before the season with a three-year, $165m extension. What’s ironic is, I actually was more optimistic about Tampa with the Mayfield contract drama, which is not something that is wholly logical, but rather about Baker’s superhuman ability to turn any slight or perceived disrespect into cataclysmic fire of motivation that seemingly lifts him to outperformance every step of his career.

Being counted out and disrespected by his own management and ownership?

I could only assume Mayfield would have taken out this aggression on every opponent the Bucs faced and put up elite numbers to show his own organization how badly they messed up.

Alas, the QB got his contract and the Bucs now can focus on the season and the next few years without worrying about a rotating door of QBs. I just would have been really excited to see the natural endpoint of Baker’s revenge ethos.

I guess it’s time to talk about the actual team?

Tampa is the most solid team in this division, but right below the threshold of an actual contender especially in the NFC. Tristan Wirfs is one of the best tackles in the league, and the anchor of their offensive line. One defense, Antoine Winfield Jr. is one of the best turnover creators in the league at the safety position. Defensive tackle Vita Vea received an extension, locking down the anchor of their d-line through 2027. Todd Bowles has shown the ability to get more out of less on the defensive side of the ball, but last year the unit struggled especially down the stretch where Tampa’s division lead collapsed from under them.

Emeka Egbuka, last year’s first round pick, put up a solid rookie season, but with the loss of Mike Evans the Bucs will rely on Chris Godwin (coming off consecutive years missing multiple games with injuries) to be the second perimeter threat. Kenneth Gainwell, signed in FA, proved to be a difference maker for the Steelers last year, but I am not sure he’s a bellwether back.

Ultimately when going through this division, Tampa has the least amount of questions on the offensive and defensive lines—the latter being bolstered with first round pick Rueben Bain out of Miami. With an experienced skill position group (if lacking high end star power), and signing Alex Anzalone in free agency gives their linebacking core a huge boost and also adds areas to like with this team.

No one in this division is a true contender, but I have the least amount of concern about the Bucs and every position group screams “solid to okay”, with the D-line having the chance to be scary if Bain becomes a guy.

We’ve done the AFC North , AFC East, and AFC South. Now, what I think might be the best overall division in the AFC, even with the Raiders in it.

Las Vegas Raiders - O/U 5.5 Wins

The Raiders have, what they hope, is the most important part of a rebuild—drafting Heisman and National Championship winner Fernando Mendoza first overall at the top of this years draft. Mendoza likely will see some playing time this year, but bringing in Kirk Cousins to start and take the lumps is probably best for Mendoza’s long term outlook and development. The Raiders have stocked some exciting young pieces on offense, Ashton Jeanty at running back and Brock Bowers at tight end seem like young stars, but this team needs so much talent across the rest of the roster it is going to be another challenging year. New Coach Klint Kubiak, fresh off a Super Bowl win as Seattle’s OC should help with the offensive development, but putting a first time head coach in this situation isn’t ideal. The Raiders face one of the leagues more difficult schedules (their own division is brutal, and also play the NFC West) so success this year looks more about meaningful development for their key young players, and getting the offense anywhere above last place in the league. Getting Kolton Miller healthy is huge, and acquiring Tyler Linderbaum in free agency will improve the offensive line, and open up holes for Jeanty. Bowers figures to be the main passing target for Cousins/Mendoza, as the Raiders will be praying Jeremiah Smith is available to them in the draft as their receivers are challenging Miami for the most depressing. Maxx Crosby is weirdly enough, still a Raider, but is truly the only bright spot on this defense that overachieved last year and lost coordinator Patrick Graham to Pittsburgh. I could list a bunch of names of guys on defense, but really outside of Crosby its just a bunch of names. The Raiders are going to struggle this year, but if Jeanty, Bowers, and possibly Mendoza show any signs of development and growth and stay healthy that will be a good year in Vegas. This team needs more talent everywhere, and will be in the top five pick conversation and likely taking the best non-quarterback available (either Jeremiah Smith or the best defensive player if Smith is off the board).

Kansas City Chiefs - 0/U 10.5 Wins

It feels crazy to have the Chiefs at third in the AFC West, but there is a realistic possibility the division could produce three playoff teams. Is the Chiefs dynasty done? Or was last years 6-11 just an unfortunate interval in another chapter in the empiric run. It’s odd to feel like we’ve now reached a point where Mahomes is underrated but it feels that way coming off his injury in Week 15 last year tearing his ACL/LCL. Mahomes is ready to start the season, but his mobility is such a massive part of his greatness, the last few years has been necessary as the Chiefs line and lack of receiving talent has forced Mahomes to create more with his legs, that any impact to his mobility will be a concern. The Chiefs signed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker to help boost the run game, and on paper the WR trip of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Tyquan Thorton seems explosive—but the lines ability to protect Mahomes and those wideouts ability to get open will determine if the Chiefs offense can still keep up with the elite teams in the NFL. The defense once again figures to be solid, and they used the #6 overall pick on CB Mansoor Delane tasked with replacing Trent McDuffie. Can Chris Jones still be the interior disrupter at 32? Long time defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has proven his ability to develop a cohesive unit better than the some of its parts, but I am not sure if the offense takes a step back if this group is good enough to make up the difference, especially given the other teams in this division. Is it over for Kansas City? Time comes for all great teams. But one has to feel Mahomes, Kelce, and Andy Reid have a few more good shots left in them before its all said and done.

Denver Broncos - O/U 9.5 Wins

The Broncos finished last year atop the AFC in the regular season, and had a snowstorm not engulfed Denver in the second half could have been representing the conference in the Super Bowl. Had Bo Nix not broken his ankle on the final play of the divisional round, its fair to wonder if Denver would have handled the Patriots fairly easily. The Broncos once again should be one of the conferences better teams, but I do feel like it will be hard to replicate the results from last year, mostly due to a tougher schedule and how may one-score wins they had last year. Their early schedule has the Rams, 49ers, Charges and defending Super Bowl champion rams. Bo Nix is healthy, but if Denver is going to consistently compete for the AFC crown Sean Payton will need him to become more than a game manager that relies on an elite defense. The acquisition of Jaylen Waddle should help with that, giving the third year QB a legitimate outside weapon along with Cam Sutton. Denver’s defense really should be the strength of their team again, as Vance Joseph’s group was one of the best last year. The key to Broncos defensive strength last year was stopping the run, as they proved to be one of the best of league, and were top five in points allowed. If the group can continue to generate sacks at an impressive rate, and generate slightly more turnovers than they did last year, this group can challenge the Texans as the best in the AFC. Pat Surtain may be the best corner in the NFL. It still feels like before we can consider the Broncos a true contender, Bo Nix needs to become a reason why Denver wins games and not just why they didn’t lose them. Broncos defense is too good to have them out of the playoffs, but I think some defensive regression and a tougher schedule bump them down to a wild card team instead of toward the top of the conference.

Los Angeles Charges - O/U 9.5 Wins

This feels out of consensus, and maybe the NFL media circuit is getting to me, but I feel like the Chargers are poised for a breakout year. We have been saying this about Justin Herbert for years, but with the hiring of Mike McDaniel, and smart drafting the last few years, Herbert is poised for a massive year. Herbert was sacked and pressured more than anyone in the league last year, which has attributed to his injuries the last few years. The offensive line is poised for improvement, mainly attributable to both tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater being healthy after missing most of last year. They beefed up the interior of the offensive line in FA, and combined with McDaniel’s quick passing motion game should help keep pressure off Herbert and allow him to take advantage of his arm strength and processing speed. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson provide explosive targets in the passing game, while second year back Omarian Hampton is one of the more exciting young running backs in the league. I really this offense on paper, and despite his tenure in Miami McDaniel is a proven strong offensive coach, and I think he will get the most out of Herbert and allow Harbaugh and Co to focus on the defense. The loss of coordinator Jesse Minter to the head coaching job in Baltimore is tough, but the Chargers defense has enough talent particularly at edge in Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu to make up for it. Derwin James leads the secondary, but the chargers lack a true shutdown corner back which might present some problems against the better teams, although Donte Jackson (arrived via free agency) should help. If there’s one area of concern on defense its the linebacking core here, which leaves a lot to be desired. The Chargers have had back to back 11 win seasons, yet haven’t won a playoff game. Herbert has felt on the cusp of excellence for his entire career, but the hiring of McDaniel could catapult him into the MVP conversation. I think LAC wins the West, and is a serious contender in the AFC if the offensive line can protect Herbert.

We’ve done the AFC North and AFC East , now lets dive into the AFC South…a group with one team I really like and then…three other teams.

Tennessee Titans - O/U 6.5 Wins

Everything about the Titans will revolve around the development of last year’s first overall pick, Cam Ward. Ward started all 17 games last year, and didn’t have much help but was put up respectable passing numbers with 15/7 TD to INTs and an ~80 QB rating. Horrific protection up front and ball security issues plagued the offense and its no surprise the Titans moved from from Brian Callahan and Mike McCoy (interim) after going 3-14.

In comes former Jets coach Robert Saleh, and while I would have preferred an offensive minded head coach to support the young franchise QB, I like the hire of former Giants HC and Bills OC Brian Daboll as the offensive coordinator. Daboll was mixed as a head coach, but he’s proven his offensive development acumen and I am excited to see if he can help Ward take the next step in his development. Saleh and Gus Bradley will hopefully turn around the defense, which has legitimate talent in the defensive front that with Jeffrey Simmons and John Franklin-Myers, but the secondary and linebacking core needs some more depth and talent. Saleh’s defensive knowledge lifting up an average defense talent wise, and if Calvin Ridley, Wandale Robinson, and rookie Carnell Tate can emerge as weapons for Ward, if the defense can be merely competent the Titans should take a step in the right direction. Alas, the Titans are probably still going to be in the Top 10 pick discussion around draft time.

Indianapolis Colts - O/U 7.5 Wins

I really like Shane Steichen as a head coach. I think the Colts bigger issues have been related to general manager Chris Ballard, then anything coaching related. The trade up for Anthony Richardson in 2023 now looks like a colossal swing and a miss.

I support taking a swing to get a franchise guy, but you really have to have confidence that it is going to work out, because not many regimes survive taking a QB top five and having him be a bust. Richardson has struggled with health post his rookie year, but when he has played has showed no evidence he can adapt to the NFL. Taking a big swing on athletic guy with tools in college who had major red flags and only started 13 games was a big gamble that reeks of poor process, and I am suspect Ballard will survive much longer in Indy.

The Daniel Jones acquisition looked like good business, but signing him to a two year deal after an achilles injury seems like another big roll of the dice for a guy who has been inconsistent in the NFL. And then the Colts traded TWO first round picks to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. This is all to say the Colts player acquisition strategy seems to be run by a guy who is trying to save his job, rather than making logical moves for the long term success of the team.

Alas, the Colts seem to be stuck in the bottom-middle of the NFL.

If Jones is fully recovered from the injury, the offense should be able to lean on the offensive line and Jonathan Taylor in the running game, and Tyler Warren as a reliable receiving weapon. Letting Michael Pittman Jr leave will hurt the outside passing game, and I am not sure Keenan Allen, Alec Pierce, and and Josh Downs are enough of weapons. Ward and Gardner give the Colts to shutdown corners, but I don’t see many other difference makers on the defense aside from a healthy DeForest Buckner. If Jones is fully healthy, and the running game is elite the Colts could be a sneaky wild card team, but I think this will be another sub .500 season and the Colts fire Ballard at year end.

Jacksonville Jaguars - O/U 8.5 Wins

Coming out of Clemson, QB Trevor Lawerence had been deemed the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, he showed flashes, but really hadn’t shown at the NFL level he could be elite.

Things might be changing for TLaw. It started rough, but down the stretch last year new coach Liam Cohen seemed to unlock something in Lawerence, powering the Jags to eight straight wins, and Lawerence to a fifth place finish in MVP voting. Acquiring reciever Jakobi Meyers at the deadline proved to be a catalyst, and along with Brian Thomas and Parker Washington this Jags receiving core is really strong. The defense doesn’t have a lot of big names aside from Travis Hunter (who is now a full-time cornerback) but they were quietly one of the best units in the league last year, and powered them to a 13-4 record.

Jacksonville really should have beaten Buffalo in the wild card game, and if a running back can emerge and the offensive line (which has been an issue) stabilizes, the Jags could be an under the radar contender in the conference. I like their offense a lot, and if Lawerence takes a step, this group could challenge the next team for the South crown.

Houston Texans - 0/U 9.5 Wins

We saw it down the stretch last year, but the Texans defense might be the best in the AFC, and has a chance to be the best in the league.

The Texans D ranked second in scoring defense last year, led by game-breaker Will Anderson Jr. Anderson had 12 sacks, 85 pressures, and 20 tackles for loss last year. Derrick Stingley Jr is an elite shutdown corner, coming off back to back first team all-pro selections. The secondary is deep and talented, and they have elite edge rush pressure. DeMeco Ryans is an elite defensive coach, and this team has young talent across the board.

The biggest factor for the Texans is quarterback C.J. Stroud, who shined as a rookie but has not come close to reaching that form again the last two years. Stroud struggled mightily in the Texans playoff loss to the Patriots (a game had he not turned the ball over four times the Texans likely would have won), but if the fourth year QB can merely drive the car, use the talent around him and not lose games for the Texans, Houston will likely be the best team in the AFC South.

On the more optimistic front, if Stroud can get back to his rookie form, and showcase the talent and upside that made the Texans draft him 2nd overall in 2023, and certify himself as the franchise QB, the Texans are a serious contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. At a minimum their defense should be so strong, that barring any serious injuries this group will likely be the best in the conference and keep them in the mix come playoff time.

We started with the AFC North, and now we work our way to division with the defending conference champs, a true Super Bowl contender, and two rebuilds.

Miami Dolphins - O/U 4.5 Wins

“Tanking” in the NFL really isn’t a thing, but don’t tell that to Miami, who after firing Mike McDaniel and paying Tua Tagovailoa a record $99.2m not to play quarterback for them anymore, are entering year one of what looks like a prolonged rebuild. Despite signing Malik Willis (who looked promising for Green Bay in relief of Jordan Love after a rough start to his career in Tennessee), the Dolphins turned around and traded their best wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos for a first, third and fourth round pick. Miami’s wide receiving core is now made up of Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and rookie Caleb Douglas—not exactly a core set up to optimize your young quarterback. The defense is made up of mostly young players in their first three years across the board with developmental upside, but this looks like a group lacking in star power and veteran leadership. Tough situation for first-time head coach Jeff Hafley to walk into. Miami will be one of the teams circling the best non-QB prospects in this years draft (unless Willis is a disaster which is not out of the realm of possibility). The Dolphins are in accumulate draft capital mode, and take your lumps until Tua’s dead cap hit is off the books.

New York Jets - O/U 5.5 Wins

Picking on the New York Jets, the equivalent of drop kicking a toddler on the school playground and feeling good about yourself, is lazy and at this point quite cruel.

So I’m not going to do it. It’s going to be another brutal fall for Jets’ fans, but it might be slightly better. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are legitimate offensive weapons, they seemingly have stalwarts at tackle in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, and exciting tight end prospects in Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq. Will McDonald and rookie David Bailey give them a pair of exciting edge rushers.

The secondary and linebacking core, and just overall talent level needs some help, but I like the Minkah Fitzpatrick acquisition, even if he is more of a high-floor type player then difference maker at this point. At quarterback you have the nostalgia reunion tour of Geno Smith after his stints in Seattle in Oakland (can it be a reunion tour if the first time was an absolute disaster but you’re running it back because the alternative was worse? Like if you and your high school girlfriend broke up but got back together after college when you both were still living at home at 23?). Aaron Glenn completely overhauled his entire staff, never a great sign only one year into a regime, and is probably the odds on favorite first coach fired. But idk, I don’t hate this team? I think I like this team to win more than five games if they get competent quarterback play, and the defense is able to create slightly more turnovers (something they literally couldn’t do last year, they didn’t have a single interception). Am I talking myself into the Jets? Time to move on.

New England Patriots - O/U 10.5 Wins

The Patriots shocked the collective football world (besides us ball knowers) last year orchestrating one of the most impressive single season turn arounds, going 14-3 and representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Drake Maye had a true breakout year, finishing second in MVP voting, and the team went out and got Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown to bolster the offensive passing game. We know, despite his off-field judgement, Mike Vrabel will have a solid defensive unit, but the lack of true pressure generators and linebacker depth makes one question if this unit can hold up against a much tougher schedule this year. Will contract extension tension with cornerback Christian Gonzalez drag into the season? He is a player the Pats can ill-afford to not have on the field at 100%. The Patriots will continue to be on an upward trend as an organization but I have a hard time believing they will be able to repeat last year’s success. You could argue they were a CJ Stroud performance away from losing in the divisional round, and certainly if Bo Nix is healthy (and Denver does not get his with a snow tundra at halftime)—the AFC championship game looks very different. Will Campbell and the offensive line were also exposed in the Super Bowl pretty jarringly, but mainly believe Maye and Cambell’s health was the bigger factor there. Despite maybe having a slightly more solid roster top to bottom then Buffalo, my more controversial take for this year is I think the Pats take a step back and miss the playoffs this year, despite the offseason acquisitions on offense.

Buffalo Bills - O/U 10.5 Wins

After failing to make it out of the divisional round in 2025, the Bills fired Sean McDermott and promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to Head Coach (his first head coaching job in football). New coordinators across the board. They traded for deep threat DJ Moore. Signed Bradley Chubb, C.J. Gardner-Johnson to boost the defense. Important stuff. None of it matters. All that matters is Josh Allen. The Bills will go as Josh Allen goes. He is probably the best player in the NFL, and a true unicorn that has broken scouts’ brains. He has done everything on an individual level. But at some point, to put my own spin on one of our most famous scholars Ric Flair the nature boy, if you’re gonna be the guy—you gotta be the guy. Allen was very erratic in the Wild Card round last year against the Jags, and essentially lost the game for the Bills in the Divisional match up with soul crushing turnovers.

The regular season doesn’t matter. He needs those Josh Allen moments in December and January.

After coming agonizingly close, the Bills have seemingly struggled to finally take that leap, and Josh has struggled when the lights are brightest. To truly go down as one of the greats, he at least has to get to the Super Bowl.

I think this is the year the Bills do it, for no other reason than I think Josh finally has his run where the guy we watch all regular season does it in the playoffs. I think his relationship with Brady gives him complete comfort and control on the offense, and the defense is good enough to keep thme in any game. But if Josh has another playoff stinker, you seriously have to start to wonder if he is going to be this generation’s Dan Marino, and if we’ve entered the “post-franchise QB” era in the NFL.

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What better place to start than my favorite division, where I think there are two legitimate conference champion candidates (if things go right), a team finally getting a refresh but still poised to be mediocre, and a literal train rumbling off the tracks on fire.

From my anticipated worst to best…(over unders pulled from the interweb).

Cleveland Browns - O/U 5.5-6.5 Wins

The Browns made the worst trade in professional sports history four years ago, giving up six draft picks (three of which were firsts) and handing out a $230m fully guaranteed deal to land embroiled quarterback Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans. Not even getting into the off the field issues with the trade (which are heinous and awful and show a serious lack of judgement from everyone involved with the Browns), but the on field results have been abysmal.

Watson has only played 19 games in four years after another shoulder injury and tearing his achilles twice (once was a re-tear in the offseason)—but when he has played he has been quite bad, averaging 177 yards per game and well below replacement level metrics across the board.

The only time Watson has been cheered in Cleveland was the last time he was on the field, and tore said achilles. This has all culminated in the QB responding to recent antagonism from home fans by basically telling HIS OWN FANBASE to screw off [paraphrasing, but barely]. So how did the Browns respond? By naming him the starting quarterback besides drafting two QBs last year in Shedeur Sanders and Dillion Gabriel.

To make things worse, the Browns decided to torture their fans even more by trading the best player in the franchise’s history since Jim Brown. Future first ballot Hall of Famer and Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett forced his way via trade to Super Bowl favorite LA Rams. The Browns have a nice group of young players, have restocked draft capital and assets via the Garrett trade—but nothing overshadows the Watson debacle, and the putrid vibes ownership and management have created. The Watson trade has put a dark cloud over new head coach Todd Monken’s first season (coming over after being the OC in Baltimore last season). I do not understand why they spent a third round pick on Dillon Gabriel last year only to never consider him a realistic option to play or develop. I like Fannin (their young tight end), and a staple of wide receivers (rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston). Jared Verse was a solid get in the Garrett trade. Again, there is young talent here, but unfortunately ownership and management decided to double down on one of the worst sports decisions of all time instead of cutting their losses.

Shedeur Sanders will likely play after a few weeks, but the Browns season will be more about getting everyone involved in this mess out of town and starting fresh with a chance at the top quarterback prospect in the draft this spring, and restarting once again.

Pittsburgh Steelers - O/U 8.5 Wins

What more can I really say here that I haven’t already.

After nearly two decades, and two Super Bowl appearances (and one win), Mike Tomlin stepped down after a decade without a playoff win. The Steelers more so than any other team represent the purgatory of mediocrity in the NFL. Mike McCarthy is the new coach, reuniting with his ol’ Green Bay QB in Aaron Rodgers for one last ride, but the Steelers figure to be right where they’ve been.

Not bad enough to land premium capital to acquire franchise type talents at the top of the draft, but not good enough to compete with the upper echelon of teams.

The Steelers will likely go 9-8, be in the wild card hunt and probably lose to the elite AFC teams. Rodgers, a maturing offensive line, and the addition of Michael Pittman Jr should keep the offense slightly above average.

On defense the Steelers have difference makers in TJ Watt, Cam Heyward and maybe Joey Porter Jr (if the contract dispute resolves itself) but overall it figures to be another wilderness year for what was once the most storied franchise in the NFL.

The fact that the entire offseason was spent debating about the third or fourth string QB tells you everything you need to know about where we are in Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati Bengals O/U 9.5-10.5 Wins

The Bengals on paper always seem to be better than they end up being in reality.

A lot of that is attributable to Joe Burrow injuries over the years, and truly awful defensive play.

The fact remains that despite a Super Bowl appearance and an AFC Championship Game loss in 2021 and 2022 the Bengals have largely underachieved under Zac Taylor.

The only thing saving his job has been the Burrow health excuse, but a .453 winning percentage is not going to get it done anymore.

The Bengals are coming off three consecutive seasons in which they missed the playoffs, and with Taylor in the last year of his contract it’s a make or break year in Cincy.

Despite the loss of defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson, the effort to boost the defense was there, acquiring Dexter Lawerence from the Giants for the 10th overall pick at the draft.

The offense is loaded once again with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown all providing explosive plays around Burrow, but ultimately their health will determine how far the Bengals go.

Can Al Golden’s defense rebound from finishing toward the bottom of the league in points given up last year? A favorable November and December schedule sets them up well, but they’ll need to keep themselves in the race long enough for it to matter. I don’t think this team is good enough on defense to be a true contender but they will likely make the playoffs.

How early they get eliminated will determine Taylor’s job, and the conversation we need to have about Joe Burrow.

Baltimore Ravens - O/U 11.5 Wins

The Ravens have quarterback Lamar Jackson, one of the top five quarterbacks in the sport.

If the Incredible Hulk played football, he would be Raven’s running back Derrick Henry - an impossible force of mass and power unable to be brought down by a single defender.

Linebacker Roquan Smith and Safety Kyle Hamilton are two of the best at their positions.

After the weird/strange/fake/fumbled Maxx Crosby trade, the Ravens somehow pivoted and landed elite defensive lineman from a division rival in Trey Hendrickson.

The Ravens moved on from Jim Harbaugh as things had clearly gotten stale, and hired one of the brightest young minds in football in Jesse Minter.

They locked down receiver Zay flowers.

They have Mark Andrews at tight end who remains a matchup nightmare.

All the above is incredibly positive.

Yet it still feels like the Ravens missed their best shot in a Super Bowl window.

For whatever reason this team every year is set up to be the no brainer best in the division and be right up there with Buffalo and Kansas City, but in December and January can never put it together. Now, under the weight of Jackson’s massive contract, Baltimore has had to let go of several productive veterans on both sides of the ball. Baltimore should win the AFC North (comfortably). They should be one of the legitimate AFC contenders to make the Super Bowl. But a new coaching staff, another new offensive coordinator, lack of perimeter receiving options and Jackson’s inconsistencies make me skeptical this is the year the Ravens finally are different.

They will be very good, but have to think they missed a few better opportunities over the last few years to make a run in the AFC.

I owe Mike McCarthy an apology.

The likelihood of him reading this is quite small, but one can dream.

I don’t apologize for being critical of the hire, but with some time for reflection I can see what I wrote in the immediate aftermath of his hiring was emotional, overly reactive, and lacking consideration for the big picture. My frustration at the time was less about McCarthy the coach, and more about what it seemed to suggest about the Pittsburgh Steelers organization.

After a decade plus of mediocrity—the team never being good enough to truly compete for a Super Bowl while simultaneously not bad enough to land the kind of immediate franchise altering difference makers at the top of drafts—the Steelers seemed to be pursuing the absolutely safest route possible in order to avoid a dreaded losing season.

Yes they interviewed a slew of young, innovative, and exciting hires - the type any fan today hopes will turn into the next Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, or Matt LaFleur (worth noting only one of these men have won a championship but Kyle has gotten to the big game twice). For a team and fan base that seemed destined to be stuck reliving the 2000s glory days till the end of time, hiring McCarthy seemed like the option of least risk. He was an established head coach previously, had won a Super Bowl, and was currently unemployed. No one would likely lose their job over hiring McCarthy vs an unproven Chris Shula or Nate Scheelhaase. Retread head coaches rarely have long term success, especially on their third team.

As a fan who has been desperate for this team to be aggressive and admit ‘The Standard’ has been outpaced by the rest of the league, I saw this as an opportunity to finally inject some new and innovative ideas and chart a new course for the direction of the franchise. McCarthy represented more of the same. Highest possible floor, lowest possible ceiling. Win more games than you lose.

So I fired out a reactionary piece.

Besides maybe the Indiana piece (which earned me plenty of hate online and in my DMs), no piece flowed out of me like that one. Is was an experiment in real time writing, letting my personal thoughts and pour out of me in the idea of crafting an engaging and earnest piece of sports entertainment.

The problem with reactionary opinions and stances—and sharing those online—is you don’t leave much room for nuance, or reconsideration.

So with some time and space, and the second preseason game behind us - my views on the McCarthy hire, and the Steelers this season, have changed. I still have issues with the process (it never really seemed like anyone BUT Big Mike was ever a serious candidate, the only one who was granted an in-person interview), but I think I have a better idea why he was hired, and looking through it from that lens, I feel a lot better about the decision, if the process itself still remained flawed.

Let’s discuss this and some more topics ahead of the Steelers season.

Mike McCarthy Isn’t Here to Win a Super Bowl; He’s Here to Find the Next Quarterback

When looking back to the initial moment of McCarthy’s hiring, I was most frustrated with the decision because it felt that it in no way did it move the needle on the Steelers eventually becoming a championship contender. It felt aimed at having the most possible success in 2026, as ownership and the front office want to avoid a down year at all costs.

That was wrong.

Not in the sense of “this new coach will turn them into a Super Bowl team” that any fan hopes when their team hires someone, but in the larger picture.

The true reality is the the only way the Steelers can hope to get back into the elite of the NFL, is by finding a franchise quarterback.

Sure, some teams in recent years have proven and shown that if you have a truly elite defense (the Eagles, the Seahawks last year), you can get by with just an average or slightly above QB. The Steelers tried that model and unfortunately wasted the prime window of what was an elite defense, unable to find even average QB play.

[date of steelers QB play since Roethlisberger retired]

The majority of true contenders (particularly in the AFC) have a difference maker at the game’s most important position.

When looking at the hire through the perspective of being mostly focused on finding that, McCarthy is actually the perfect hire.

Yes, he is the first head coach in Pittsburgh since before the 1970s with an offensive background, but for all the knocks on McCarthy the one thing he does have on his resume is extensive work with elite quarterbacks: Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott.

Obviously his work in identifying and developing Rodgers into a four time MVP and first ballot Hall of Famer carries most of the weight there, but out of any candidate available to them, there clearly was no one else with the kind of experience working with, and developing signal callers than McCarthy had. Sure, a young dynamic coordinator would have been fun, but the Steelers elected to go with someone who not only has extensive head coaching experience—this is a veteran team after all that just made the playoffs—but one who has a proven track record working with the most important position in the game.

Management and ownership rightfully realized until the Steelers figure out who their next quarterback is, their ceiling is only so high. Dak Prescott’s evolution from a fourth round pick into an All-Pro QB who led the NFL in passing touchdowns under McCarthy is probably the most encouraging signal that he can identify and develop a raw prospect into a star, something Pittsburgh will likely have to do given the strength of the defense makes it unlikely they will be picking prospects in the top five of drafts (where the best QB prospects typically go), and they don’t seem to have the draft capital required to trade up next year for one.

McCarthy does not need to be the next coach to lead the Steelers to the Super Bowl.

He probably won’t be, and that’s fine.

The entirety of McCarthy’s tenure in Pittsburgh should be based on one factor alone: did he find and begin the development of the next franchise QB.

Whether that is Will Howard, Drew Allar, or someone to be drafted in the next year or two, when all is said and done if the Steelers either already have a young dynamic and possible star player at the position or at least are bad enough to be in a position to draft one when McCarthy’s tenure is up, it will have been a success.

The Will Howard and Drew Allar Project

The most riveting storyline of the Steelers entire offseason and preseason so far, has been centered around two players who more than likely will not play a single down in the regular season. There was some hope Will Howard, last year’s sixth round pick on the back of a national championship at Ohio State, could ascend to the backup role this year, and he and Allar could both be on the roster, but it is now clear from the two preseason games that neither QB is ready for real game action.

While both showed signs of promise in the preseason opener against Green Bay, the QBs showed equal signs of struggle in the follow up Friday night against the Jets.

Can the Steelers afford to keep two project QBs on the 53 man roster?

Howard as only a sixth round pick, figures to be the odd man out given the Steelers signed Allar to a three year entry level deal. Allar’s physical tools and arm talent will give him a much longer runway to prove himself than Howard will get.

The staff clearly didn’t see enough from Howard to feel comfortable with him as the everyday backup. There are only so many valuable practice reps to go around during the regular season, so splitting those between two prospects who need as many as they can get while also making sure Rodgers and Rudolph are ready to play, seems unwise.

Again, it says something about the state of the Steelers and where they are that the biggest focus of the preseason is around if they will take three or four QBs on the roster.

If either plays a single snap this season things will have gone horribly wrong (or right depending on if it positions them to draft a first round QB prospect), but it will be interesting to see how this new offensive staff treats quarterback development.

Why hasn’t Joey Porter Jr. been signed yet?

The fun thing about football is all 11 players on the field really matter.

The reality is there are a few premium positions that hold outsized weight in the expected value and impact on winning games.

Those positions are widely regarded as: quarterback, left tackle, edge rusher, and corner back.

These can’t be the only good players on your team, but if you have a truly elite player at one of these positions they can elevate the team in a way other positions just can’t.

Even before Ben Roethlisberger retired, the Steelers have struggled to find a number one cornerback; someone who can shut down opposing receivers and limit their passing attack by nullifying their best player (or at least containing him). As passing offenses have exploded in the NFL over the last decade, the need for someone who can come in and at a bare minimum at least manage the other team’s biggest outside receiving threat has become imperative.

Since the retirement of Ike Taylor in 2015, the Steelers spent six draft picks in a four year period on corner, and only one turned into a respectable starter in Cameron Sutton. They didn’t draft a single one from 2019-2022. Also dabbling in free-agency, the result was a revolving door of corners from Joe Haden (good) to Artie Burns (bust) and Ahkello Witherspoon (bad) plagued the Steelers as they lacked someone who could limit opposing receivers.

So when a prospect who had been projected to be the first cornerback off the board in the 2022 draft, and is literally the son of a Steelers legend, fell to them at the first pick in the second round–and then proceeded to blossom into a very good to arguably elite corner it’s an absolute no-brainer they should lock that player down for the long term right?

Young star player at a premium position of need while you aren’t paying a QB big contract money eating away at your salary cap space.

Apparently the Steelers are hesitant to make that commitment.

Contract talks with Porter have reached an “impasse”, and it remains to be seen if he will be signed by the beginning of the season as the corner has not been participating in training camp or the preseason.

In some sense, the Steelers stance makes sense. Porter struggled early in his career, especially with penalties, but over the last few years has truly emerged as a very good defender. Last year Porter’s targeted completion % was below 50%, and he was only targeted 66 times, giving up a measly 333 yards given up to receivers over the course of the season. His completion percentage allowed ranks top among cornerbacks, but the more advanced coverage metrics rank him in the top 20 of his position, not the elite tier.

Porter also only has three career interceptions, a byproduct of not being targeted frequently but something you still hope is higher if paying an CB elite money.

So, I get it, it’s not a complete slam dunk of a decision.

Porter is very good, but debatable if elite–and the fact the Steelers have a new defensive coordinator and totally new scheme makes it all the more difficult to predict how he will perform.

At the same time, the Steelers don’t have much leverage as their cornerback outlook outside of Porter would mostly be classified as a disaster. If they don’t sign Porter you are going to be forced to either 1) sign one in free agency which is often very expensive 2) go through the whole draft and development process again with a position where it normally takes 3-5 years for a player to reach his potential or starting caliber (CB remains one of the positions that is extremely difficult for rookies to come into the NFL and play right away, as opposed to running-back or receiver).

Compounding the fact Porter has never caused any off the field issues or drama, is a local kid, and that the Steelers have handed out money to veterans on the decline (more on this later)—it’s curious the front office is now choosing now to play hardball over contracts.

The longer the contract saga drags on with Porter, the worse for the Steelers in the short and long term.

Offensive Line:Drafted,Not Settled

I have been a Steelers fan for over two decades.

I can count on one hand the number of years where the offensive line hasn't been a concern.

It just seems to be the nature of the sport, where every year in August you read reports that THIS year the offensive line looks to be really strong. Then games roll around, and you immediately realize you are in for another year of your quarterback running for his life, and running-backs having to avoid three guys before reaching the line of scrimmage.

The Steelers offensive line should be good, and unlike cornerback, the O-line room is one where they have invested a significant amount of draft capital.

In the last three drafts alone, they have taken three tackles (all in the first round), and a center in the second round. The front office has also done really good work at finding some under the radar players that seem to be functionally reliable players like Mason McCormick and Dylan Cook.

The tackle situation, those most responsible for blocking the edge rushers of other teams, remains the biggest question marks for the Steelers.

Troy Fautanu looked solid in his first full healthy season last year at Right Tackle, especially in pass protection giving up only two sacks over 634 passing snaps, but he ranks well below average in run grades across the board. At least for the time being, Fautanu has shifted back to his collegiate position at Left Tackle, so can those metrics improve while switching back to his original position is something to monitor.

2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones is recovering from a neck fusion surgery, and is also dealing with a position switch after failing to really prove he can be a trusted LT. So far in both games, and according to preseason reporting, Jones has looked generally out of place and rhythm at Right Tackle and gave up two brutal sacks against the Jets.

The Steelers declined Jones’ fifth year option this offseason, but given his pedigree and the fact the Steelers traded up in the first round to get him back in the 2023 Draft, it would be a huge indictment on the front office and both Tomlin and McCarthy’s coaching staffs if another first round pick in Pittsburgh does not last past his first contract (TJ Watt from 2017 is the last first round pick of the Steelers to receive a contract extension).

The Steelers invested another first round pick at tackle this year in Max Iheanachor, who has tremendous athletic upside but did not start playing football until he was 21, so will need more development time than someone with extensive football experience. Iheanachor has also been sidelined in the preseason with an injury–losing valuable developmental reps, which is not ideal.

With 42 year old Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the Steelers line is going to have to hold up in pass protection if they have any hope of stretching the field and not forcing Rodgers to get the ball out in under three seconds as was the case last year, and given his lack of mobility that was exposed against better defenses last year, the offensive line really needs to take a step forward this year if the Steelers merely want to get back to the playoffs.

The Steelers have invested heavily in their offensive line over the last few drafts, but the group still remains more of a question mark than a finished product at this point.

The TJ Watt Conversation

When I was a kid growing up in the mid 2000s, I had family with New England ties. My grandfather specifically, really enjoyed watching those championship videos of the Red Sox and Patriots teams in the middle of their dynastic runs.

Some in Pittsburgh would consider this a form of child abuse.

One thing I always took away from those documentaries, particularly the Patriots ones led by the heartless genius architect Bill Belichick – was the key to sustaining long term success and keeping a championship window open, was knowing when to move on from certain players.

Success, often begets over-loyalty to players teams win with, and they generally keep players around longer than they should because of the emotion and nostalgia of winning. This leads to overpayments, too much money and space tied up in players whose best days might’ve already happened.

The Steelers should never have really had that problem with any player on the roster given they have not won a playoff game in a decade, let a lone a championship. But their loyalty to star players, even ones who probably deserved it, likely prolonged their mediocrity.

TJ Watt has been one of the best defensive players in the NFL, by and large, since his first game.

He is a likely a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Defensive player of the year award winner.

He is one of those elite players and a game changing position I mentioned earlier.

I believe the Steelers should have traded Watt in the summer of 2025, and they are now paying a player elite money who has not proved to be a difference maker in the playoffs and is in decline.

Last summer, Watt was two years removed from his (at the time) record setting 2021 defensive season, in which he set a league record for sacks and won Defensive Player Of The Year. His 2023/2024 seasons remained elite– registering double digit sacks seasons and leading the NFL in forced fumbles.

He was a true game wrecker and won the Steelers multiple games they had no business winning, simply by making gamebreaking plays through sacks or forced fumbles.

However, by the end of the 2024 season Watt was 30 years old, and it had become clear the Steelers were not remotely close to being competitive. They continued to make the playoffs, where they would lose by double digits to clearly superior teams.

Watt hadn’t been a difference maker in those games, and the 2024 loss to the Ravens Watt registered zero sacks, zero tackles for loss in a largely non-competitive game.

For his career, Watt has played in five playoff games, where he has registered 14 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 1 sack.

The Steelers have lost all those games, except for one, by double digit points.

This isn’t all on Watt, but my point is: Did paying Watt a massive contract at the age of 30 really make sense, when they could have received massive amounts of value for him given his still elite production?

After that 3-year, $123m extension last summer, Watt saw a decline in pretty much every metric across the board.

His sack total tied for the second lowest of his career, with the lowest being a season in which he missed 10 games with injury.

The Steelers season once again ended with a blowout playoff loss, with Watt barely registering as a factor, as the Texans embarrassed the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.

TJ Watt is a great player, but is he still an elite player?

The Steelers are paying him like one, but his playoff performances combined with lackluster back half of seasons and being on the wrong age of 30 gives me serious concerns.

The Steelers defense, under new coordinator Patrick Graham, hopefully is improved from a schematic perspective over the lackluster coaching from Teryl Austin, and can get Watt back into elite form. Ultimately, Watt is the difference maker in this group, and he needs to be that elite player again if the Steelers hope to not have regrets about a missed opportunity to catapult their rebuild with a haul of premium picks and assets they could have got for him two years ago.

The Steelers for the first time in 18 years, have a new coach.

There is change in the air, and that has reinvigorated my interest in the team.

As high as their competitive floor has been, the Mike Tomlin era had grown incredibly stale—you always knew they would win a few games that they shouldn’t, almost lose every game against a better team, and drop some questionable ones in there.

Never embarrassing, but never a serious threat to challenge for a Super Bowl. A sad reality when you made your whole identity around championship and hosting Lombardi trophies.

It was long overdue for a coaching change, and Tomlin stepping down provided that opening.

McCarthy was probably the least sexy hire they could have made, but once the games start none of that matters.

My official prediction for the Steelers is once again they will win more games than they lose, lose in the first round of the playoffs, and find themselves navigating the mushy middle of the NFL for another year.

Honestly, what happens with Drew Allar’s development or lack thereof, the offensive line growth, and the Porter contract situation matter more in the grand scheme of things than any individual wins or losses this year.

Thank god football is almost back.

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For the first time in over a decade, Penn State Football finds itself heading into a new season with more unknowns than familiarity. After going “all-in” for 2025 and falling flat on its face, Penn State made the decision to get out of the James Franklin business. After a tumultuous coaching search, with many twists and turns, the Nittany Lions ended up with someone that should have been at the top of their candidate list from the beginning—Iowa State’s Matt Campbell. Campbell brings a fresh approach, renewed energy, and an embrace of the past that has long been missing in Happy Valley. With under a month until the Lions kick off against Marshall, there is no shortage of questions and unknowns for the start of a new era.

Five specifically are top of mind. Let’s get into it.

Can all these new players and coaches come together and form a playoff team?

Even in a sport that now features dramatic annual roster turnover, Penn State is dealing with a complete roster overhaul following the dismissal of James Franklin last October.

Only 22% of Penn State’s 2025 snaps were played by players who are returning, but with Campbell bringing 24 former Iowa State players with him to Happy Valley, Penn State’s transfer-adjusted returning production is 52%, right around the national average.

The most interesting part of Matt Campbell’s first season is that this is an almost entirely new Penn State team, but one that is made up of players with experience. 39 transfers in total joined the Lions from the total, with 24 coming from Iowa State. The offense figures to mesh rather quickly, as quarterback Rocco Becht, running back Carson Hansen, tight end Ben Brahmer, and a trio of wide receivers are included in that group of Cyclone transfers. The fact that offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser also followed Campbell makes a smooth transition even more viable. This is a sizable chunk of an offense, playing in the same system they have for the last few years.

The defensive side of the ball is a different story. In addition to a heavier combination of existing Penn State players and former Cyclones. Penn State must replace 75% of last season’s defensive snaps under an almost entirely new staff. That is no easy task. If star linebacker Tony Rojas is fully recovered from an ACL tear, that should help, but PSU needs its defense to gel fast, and does not have the benefit that the offense does with a large group of players who have played together in the same system before.

A forgiving opening schedule against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo should help, but the warm ups end quickly when USC comes to town in October for Campbell’s first ‘White Out’ game.

If Penn State can ultimately make the playoff in year one under Campbell, it will be because its experienced offense led the way while the defense found cohesion quickly.

How good is Rocco Becht?

Football analysis always starts with the quarterback. Aside from the truly elite teams, it is hard for a team to perform above its quarterback play.

Becht is interesting because the Lions are not getting a total question mark, but he is not a total safe bet without any downside either.

Before the shoulder injuries last year and for most of his career, Becht produced like a perfectly capable college quarterback. You’d be forgiven for seeing a little Trace McSorely in his game - mobile enough to avoid sacks, dangerous enough to use play-action, and productive enough to rack up above-average passing statistics, but never really being in elite quarterback discussion. That mobility should be highly beneficial in Mouser’s offense, as it helps open up the passing game in ways Penn State could not consistently do in the Drew Allar era.

The biggest question is Becht’s health and how high his ceiling ultimately is.

Becht had two shoulder injuries last season that required offseason surgery, so it is a viable concern whether his body can hold up in the Big Ten for a full season. Can Becht look like the 2024 version of himself against better defenses than he saw in the Big 12? His numbers against winning Power Four opponents last year leave a lot to be desired: 6 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a sub-60% completion rate. The numbers after the injuries are worse, with his completion percentage falling by 10 points and his QBR dropping nearly 40 points.

Once conference play starts, even the lower-tier Big Ten opponents will represent a stronger challenge than the defenses Iowa State frequently played, and if Penn State is truly going to contend for the playoff, Becht and the offense will need to lead the way.

Penn State does not need Becht to be a Heisman candidate, but it does need the healthy version of the quarterback who already has 39 career starts and more than 9,000 passing yards. It will need a signal-caller who plays his best against the best, something they have lacked since Trace McSorely.

Can Penn State’s tight ends be the best group in the country?

Tight end was one of the strongest position groups under James Franklin, and the good news for Penn State fans is that seems to be the case again at the start of the Matt Campbell era.

Proven production, huge talent ceiling, and overall depth make the group the easy pick for strongest position group on offense. An offensive scheme that heavily features them figures to also provide the opportunity for this position group to be one of the best in the country.

Ben Brahmer leads the way, with the former Cyclone coming to Happy Valley after registering nearly five hundred receiving yards, six touchdowns, and a Mackey Award semifinalist nod last year. His massive 6-foot-7, 250-pound frame and familiarity with Becht and the offensive system set him up well to become one of the best tight ends in the country.

Returning junior Andrew Rappleyea represented one of the few bright spots after Franklin was fired. Deciding to remain in the blue and white, Rappleyea shone down the stretch in 2025. In my opinion, he actually stood out more than former five-star recruit Luke Reynolds at the position, and keeping him at Penn State was a huge win for Campbell and Co.

Having two extremely athletic vertical threats in the middle of the field creates a matchup nightmare for defenses. While Brahmer and Rappleyea give the group upside, another former Cyclone, Gabe Burkle, adds a physical blocking presence that should help Penn State in the run game. Burkle also has shown competence in pass-catching, allowing Taylor Mouser even more versatility in scheming all three tight ends for Becht to target.

Which brings us to the question I asked earlier: can this group be one of the best in the country?

The floor looks plenty high, but it will fall on Mouser, who, in addition to being the OC, is also the tight ends coach, to get the most out of the group and take advantage of its strengths.

If he can figure out ways to get both Brahmer and Rappleyea involved in the passing game in multiple-tight-end sets, it will create problems for the defense and should open up things for the receivers and running backs.

If this group is going to be not just really good but truly elite, Brahmer and Rappleyea will have to build on their previous production, take advantage of an offense built around them, and become legitimate offensive weapons that linebackers can’t cover.

Can the a completely new group learn the system, and figure out a way to generate pressure?

Where Penn State’s offense can lean on familiarity between players and scheme, the defense has no such luxury. Campbell hired former Penn State defensive back D’Anton Lynn from USC, bringing in a letterman with a resume of turning around struggling defenses at his previous stops at UCLA and USC.

Installing and teaching new schemes on defense are challenging enough (see last year with former coordinator Jim Knowles), but Lynn needs to find a way to get 25 new defenders on the same page and comfortable as quickly as possible.

So far, Lynn has preached “obnoxious communication,” and has talked about wanting to avoid putting players in a position to make an assumption on the fly, leading to an explosive play against (something that too often happened last year).

The results of his ability to quickly improve a defense can be found at Lynn’s previous stops—improving first-year scoring defense by 10.6 fewer points at UCLA and 10.3 at USC.

No matter how good a teacher Lynn is, he is not going to be able to teach his way to an effective pass rush.

The Lions should have a strong secondary with returning Penn State stars and Iowa State transfers, the biggest question mark for the Lions will be at edge rusher. Yvan Kemajou and Max Granville return to Penn State, and Ikenna Ezeogu joins from Ames. Granville represents the highest upside, but someone out of this group will need to elevate his play.

Gone is Dani Dennis-Sutton, who led the team with 8.5 sacks last year.

After registering 0 sacks against Ohio State, Iowa, and Oregon in 2025, Penn State needs someone out of this group to emerge as a pressure creator. Too often opposing quarterbacks last year found themselves comfortable and able to make progressions unimpeded on third-and-long—who among this group can rise up and fill that void in 2026?

Lynn’s history of getting defenses to improve quickly at USC and UCLA should ease concerns for the Lions, and evidence suggests a quick transition is realistic.

A talented linebacker corps (led by returning playmaker Tony Rojas) and secondary (star safety Marcus Neal Jr., an Iowa State transfer) cannot compensate for a lackluster pass rush, something Penn State learned all too well last year.

By the time the Nittany Lions face the back-to-back games against USC and Michigan —someone out of this group of edge rushers and defensive linemen will need to be the difference-maker.

What would be a successful first season for Campbell?

Coaches are usually granted a grace period in their first year on the job. The coach needs time to establish their own culture and standards, bring in their own recruits and players, and develop a cohesive staff that can carry out their vision.

Matt Campbell has done a great job endearing the fan base to his cause, preaching the importance of “values” and “character.”

However, when the ball is spotted on September 5th for the first game against Marshall, all of those mantras and soundbites become “nice-to-haves” and the results take precedence.

Campbell has the challenge of going from being a program builder and savior in Ames to being in charge of steering one toward a national championship.

He is replacing a coach who routinely won double-digit games, but seemed incapable of figuring out a way to get Penn State in the upper echelon of college football.

Given PSU’s fairly weak schedule—which avoids Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana— the absolute floor for this team should be 9-3 (assuming losses to USC, Michigan, and Washington).

Given the continuity on offense and the talent and experience on defense, Penn State should be able to challenge for a playoff berth—which would be a tremendous accomplishment in the first year of a new coaching era.

I fully expect the Lions to be in the mix at 10-2 for one of the lower playoff positions.

If Becht and the offense can be better than expected and some young returning Penn State players reach their projected ceiling under a new staff known for development, Penn State could flirt with 11 wins.

If the Nittany Lions finish below 9 wins, it will likely be because the sheer amount of change causes the team to never figure out an identity, Becht and the offense aren’t able to elevate in conference play, and the defense never finds its difference-maker.

After twelve years, the James Franklin era needed to come to an end. It was clear to anyone with a pulse that after a heartbreaking loss against Oregon last year, the Franklin era was effectively over. That the team lost back-to-back games against winless UCLA and Northwestern as 20-point favorites merely shows how fragile the program was with elevated expectations. Campbell’s hiring has generated a wave of optimism and excitement, but in a few short weeks, we will get answers to the questions above and many more, and the results will speak for themselves.

Matt Campbell, after a circuitous coaching search to bring him in, has done and said all the right things. He has made a career out of being a guy “who does more with less.” He will now be expected to do “more with more” and elevate one of the most historic football programs from the really good to the great.

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Quarterback Nico Iamaleava was not the first player to take the world by storm out of high school recruiting camps, but he may go down as one of the most important. Iamaleava was a consensus top five recruit in the 2023 class, rocketing up the rankings with a 6-foot-6 frame and an arm that snapped like a whip. Clips of Nico, clad in pajama pants and a beanie cap, making all types of insane throws were impossible to miss on social media. Timing is everything in life, and the Polynesian recruit had the luck or misfortune to be a high-profile quarterback recruit at the dawn of the NIL era. Committing to the famous University of Tennessee Volunteers, Iamaleava reportedly signed a four-year NIL agreement worth up to $8 million with Spyre Sports Group, a Tennessee-aligned collective, shortly before committing to the Volunteers, an earth-shattering number for a high school kid. Although NIL had been in place a few years prior, this represented the first instance where a major program flexed its financial muscles on an elite quarterback prospect in this new era where paying players explicitly was legal.

Iamaleava spent two years in Knoxville, leading the Volunteers to a berth in the first 12-team College Football Playoff. After the Vols lost to Ohio State in the first round, reportedly unhappy with Tennessee’s efforts to improve the team around him, and feeling like his $2m/year compensation was now below market for starting quarterback, Iamaleava’s camp (his father, a personal California based coach, one lawyer but no certified agent) reportedly contacted other programs to gauge their interest. The Volunteers coaching staff was notified by Oregon that the quarterback’s representatives were making overtures to test the market, while he remained a member of and the starting quarterback of an SEC playoff team. The situation reached a point of no return, and Iamaleava left Tennessee in the spring of 2025, eventually agreeing to a deal with UCLA for reportedly less than or equal to what he was making at Tennessee (all of this is not publicly available so it is impossible to verify).

Regardless of the financial piece, Iamaleava heading into his third year, chose to leave a program where he was the starting quarterback of a playoff team in one of the most storied programs in the country. Iamaleava ended up at UCLA, one of the worst teams in the country. The Volunteers, fresh off a playoff appearance, found themselves in quarterback turmoil well into the offseason. Given the initial claims that Iamaleava’s camp was dissatisfied with the Vols’ efforts to improve the team around him, for him to go to one of the weakest teams in the sport, despite later claims familial proximity drove the move, is a curious decision. Nico’s third season ended with 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions and the team finished with a 3-9 record. For a player who topped recruiting rankings, was a consensus top prospect, Iamaleava has fallen into day three range on some early 2027 draft boards. His story is not over, but as of now it’s hard to argue that despite the financial windfall, Nico is better off.

Iamaleava’s journey so far is just one of many examples over the last few years that show the changing landscape of college football. In 2024 after winning the Sun Belt Conference championship, Marshall had to withdraw from its postseason bowl game after twenty-five players entered the transfer portal after their coach was hired by Southern Mississippi. In preparing for their first playoff game in the new era of the expanded playoff, Penn State found itself without its backup quarterback as the player was forced into entering the portal because of the aggressive market for transfer quarterbacks. A high school recruit flipped from Miami to the University of Florida, yet he never played a down for the Gators and a protracted legal dispute over a $14 million agreement was confidentially settled in 2026, while the original coach was fired and the recruit is on his fourth team in four years.

Five years into a new era, player compensation and movement, conference realignment, and record-setting media rights deals have transformed the sport. Without proper guidance and leadership, college football risks collapsing under its own weight as athletes, universities, conferences, and decision-makers rush to protect their short-term interests.

Continuing to list everything wrong with the current landscape without proposing solutions is a waste of everyone’s time. What follows is my attempt to save college football.

An Open Letter to the Powers That Be of College Football

To the NCAA, Conference Commissioners, University Presidents, Athletic Directors, and other decision-makers and stakeholders for the current state of the sport of college football:

What follows is an open letter where I hope to establish a discussion around a sustainable path forward for the sport that remains one of the most unique and beloved across America. With the fifth anniversary of Name, Image, and Likeness going into effect upon us, a reconciliation with the sweeping changes that have overtaken the sport—and consideration of what it has become and where we seem to be headed—is needed. I, just one simple fan, am among the many concerned with the direction the sport seems to be headed in.

While many will blame the transfer portal or NIL for the current issues, the ability of players to earn income and proper compensation for the value generated for programs and universities, as well as the freedom to “transfer” and change situations and the ability to realize market value, were logical and necessary changes.

The failure, for which decision-makers across the sport bear responsibility, was not preparing for an outcome in which athlete compensation and freedom of movement came to reality. At least a plan for things like clear and enforceable contracts, collective bargaining and certified representation for players should have been prepared. Things like a clear and coherent calendar for recruiting and transfers, and an organized, unified body governing the sport and enforcing these guardrails were your responsibility.

While the players have gained far greater rights in regard to compensation and movement, it has led to an erosion of the stability of the sport. Conferences, deciding to focus on maximizing revenue and controlling media distribution, blew up the regionality of the sport to form super conferences to squeeze more millions from television networks and media conglomerates.

For so long, you fought to preserve “amateurism” that when the courts began dismantling your compensation restrictions, and state laws forced the NIL issues, you threw your hands up in metaphorical exasperation and now skirt any sense of duty to the students and athletes you claim to serve.

Anyone who can spell “college” knows that athletes can now be paid, and players can transfer almost yearly.

I know you, the decision-makers, with the power to make changes, have remained adamant that the courts have limited your ability to govern and enact proper regulation.

I believe that though the sport of college football looks incredibly different now and unintended consequences have morphed NCAA Football into a David Cronenbergian body horror of a pseudo-professional sports league, something can still be done. We cannot retroactively go back and change the past, but we can take the lessons learned half a decade into this new era and chart a better path forward.

We can still save the game that is a part of people’s lives from birth. Fight songs, chants, and colors are as much a part of their genealogy as hair and eye color. Crisp fall Saturday mornings, tailgate lots filling around stadiums, generations young and old coming together to share something that bridges generational gaps. Sports, at their best, bring us together. They create shared moments and identity and allow us to be a part of something bigger than ourselves. No sport creates that more than college football in America. Much like with the broader country, we—and you, the ones with the power to do it—need to take dramatic action before it collapses under the failure of inaction.

The sport means too much to too many people to let unfettered greed, complacency, and apathy stop us from fighting for it.

Fight for the fan who was born into a generational rivalry, the family who spends all year thinking about the one day out of three hundred and sixty-five where they get the chance to knock their cross-state team off their perch.

What follows are the points I would encourage you to consider to stabilize the sport of college football.

Football Carveout

College football has gotten so large and drives so much revenue, it is almost impossible to convince yourself it remains an amateur sport. The guise of “amateurism” grows more laughable by the year as more and more details become public about NIL valuations and television contract details. Football and basketball require so many resources and attention now from these athletic departments and universities, it has taken away from every other sport. The nationalization of football and expansion of conferences made business sense, but now the athletes competing in track and field or rugby have to figure out cross-country travel and reduced budgets as the football behemoth continues to grow.

A football-specific carveout from the NCAA should be established, allowing universities to remain a part of the NCAA for other sports, while football exists as a standalone entity.

This allows for the centralization of a governing body (more to come) that controls scheduling, competition, media, player movement, enforcement of rules and regulations, and the postseason.

Universities would retain ownership in the venture through their conferences, while a national players’ union sets up a Trust for players to earn an economic stake. Outside investors own minority stakes with non-controlling interests, and the NCAA owns a non-controlling economic position to fund the other sports that football had previously helped support.

Players are now able to be classified as employees, providing them with salaries, structure, and benefits and, most importantly, allowing for collective bargaining, which makes the transition to the NFL model—and its clarity around contracts, negotiations, and other problems—easier.

Transparent contracts, clear market information, public financial information about programs and schools also follow, creating a more sustainable path forward for the players, teams, universities, and sport overall. Hundreds of thousands of other student-athletes are now able to truly be the focus of an amateur athletic department and are no longer forced to operate under the shadow of the semi-professional league. The sport of football and its athletes, coaches, and staff finally get the full focus and operational expertise of one centralized entity focused on the growth of its own sport and ecosystem.

Establish a New Governing Body

A new governing body (president, commissioner, board) is elected and established, and leadership changes on an ongoing basis.

Once the legislation was established in favor of the players regarding name, image, and likeness as well as player movement - it almost seemed as if the NCAA and you decision-makers, having been publicly humiliated, decided that you were going to pout like you did when you disappointed your dad in middle school.

You guys wanted all this. Congrats. You deal with the problems.

The burden of legislation and determining how the new era of collegiate sports fell to conferences and universities, who immediately prioritized revenue and maximizing short-term financial windfall without the overbearing NCAA enforcing what they could do. A lack of accountability led all groups to act in short-term self-interest and self-preservation over the health of the whole. Conferences collapsed because of backroom deals led by power brokers, as television revenue became more important than the sanctity of competition.

Decisions regarding everything from NIL, player movement, compensation, rules and regulations, realignment, and negotiations of media rights are made by this group, and membership is elected and voted on by universities and the players. This new governing body also establishes a more formal postseason competition process that does not boil down to twelve angry men sitting in a room lobbying on behalf of their own personal conferences or schools so they receive a bonus payout.

Imagine if the NFL owners and Goodell got in a room every January to vote on who the playoff teams should be. Adam Silver of the NBA would have the New Orleans Pelicans playoff-bound yearly, one would have to assume.

Restore Regionality

What you, the people who have been running college football, have consistently failed to show you understand is that you have virtually eliminated what makes college football great and different from the NFL through dreaded “realignment.”

The sport of college football is special because, at its heart, it has always been a regional sport. It was built and expanded in places too small to have a professional sports team; the local university became the uniting force, becoming a symbol of that part of the country. For most of the U.S. for a period of time, the identities of the demographics of these regions were inextricable from the teams themselves. Roll Tide in humble and polite Alabama. Go Blue in blue-collar northeastern Michigan. Fight On in the glitz and glamor of Southern California. Winning championships was and remains the goal, but beating your rival is more important.

This sport is special because team rivalries and animosity transcend generations and only grow deeper with time. Realignment has pushed cultural touchstones such as Washington-Washington State and Oregon-Oregon State out of their traditional conference foregrounds, while the iconic Notre Dame-USC game is entering an indefinite hiatus. Florida vs. Georgia or Texas and Oklahoma remain too big a part of the media rights deal to touch, but these rivalries are no less important. Talk to anyone who participated in an Apple Cup about how much that game meant. As someone who grew up in the middle of the Pitt–WVU rivalry, I can tell you that though those schools rarely competed for championships, the game itself every year was its own Super Bowl, fueling the fan base and programs on a yearly basis. Ask anyone in Western Pennsylvania or West Virginia what significance 13-9 has, and they’ll tell you.

The new entity would reestablish the major geographic/regional conferences: Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Pac-12, and the Big 12.

Your representatives and officials promote pageantry, yet they killed what actually built the tradition and rivalries that were the backbone of the sport by allowing regional conferences to fall apart as bigger brands like Texas, Oklahoma, Washington, and Oregon defected from their regional conferences for more money in the SEC and Big Ten, respectively.

Every game matters, but nothing so much as that one shot a year you have against the team you hate most. For 364 days out of the year, you will have to either soak in the glory of victory or eat crow in defeat. It’s your annoying cousin who went against the family and went to Tech instead of State.

It is hard to create the regional intensity and history when half your games every year are against teams in a different time zone. The Pac-12 is gone; so is the Big East. The ACC remains on life support. The Big 12 has gone as far as to sell regular season naming rights to an energy drink company.

The new league, now in a position to negotiate its media deals across the entire sport, is able to effectively revenue-share and balance out the discrepancy. The existing media rights are paid out pro rata to universities that are a part of the original agreements, and going forward the new entity negotiates the value of its media deals on a league-wide basis and each school earns an equal portion of the media rights. This likely upsets certain programs and universities in the short term, but in the long term the value of the league and sport makes up the difference.

The regional heart starts beating again, and the sport is better for it.

Establish Clear Transfer and Recruiting Timelines

The calendar for roster changes is a major issue. Before the season is over, teams’ players are either being poached by rival teams to enter the portal or renegotiating their own deals; the high school recruiting roller coaster is in full swing; and there are still postseason games to prepare for.

Immediately set transfer and recruiting windows where contact is permitted with transfer-eligible players only after they have officially entered the portal.

High school recruiting periods are offset from those windows.

Most importantly, any breach of these terms is strictly enforced (something the NCAA and your entities have made a laughable effort at doing consistently). Failure to adhere to these rules and regulations would result in severe financial and recruiting penalties, and possible postseason bans.

A constant cycle of never-ending player movement destabilizes programs and the sport at large. While the NFL is a cold and calculating business, college football players form a special relationship with their programs and their fan bases, as they literally grow with them. Saquon Barkley showed up in Happy Valley as a four-star recruit out of eastern Pennsylvania, and left as one of the biggest stars in the sport. I am not sure that, if the current environment had existed then, he would have been able to stay, because an SEC program, Oregon, or Ohio State would have come calling before his sophomore season had even finished.

Transfer Limits

In addition to clear windows and operating procedures regarding recruiting, the current dynamic of yearly and unlimited transfers has hurt the sport.

All athletes are granted one transfer to use per four years of eligibility. A second transfer shall be granted: a) if the head coach to whom they committed is fired or leaves for another job or b) upon receiving an undergraduate degree.

The previous transfer limitations were authoritarian and widely anti-player, but a total 180 has created different problems. While I support a player’s ability to change situations and realize their market value, constant labor shifting and renegotiation of contract values on a yearly basis has destabilized the sport, weighed on programs, and alienated fans.

There is a reason that, with collective bargaining and players’ unions, contract negotiations happen in a more streamlined fashion and during the offseason, with occasional overlap into the start of the season. Players deciding in the middle of the season to sit out, transfer, or renegotiate rarely if ever happens for these reasons.

For programs, it makes planning for the long term a nearly impossible feat, and while I credit the Hoosiers of the world for being able to effectively build championship rosters overnight, a world of unlimited and unpredictable transfers will fundamentally continue to erode the sport. If we cannot find a middle ground where players have the ability to realize their market value while also committing to programs for longer than a year, how can we have a stable ecosystem?

A lot of college football coaches will preach the line “transformational, not transactional,” and while they are using it as sales propaganda—the ethos is correct. The sport, at its best, has allowed millions of young men not only to change their families’ lives financially but also to form and develop a brotherhood they can be a part of for the rest of their lives. A world where market forces force them to become mercenaries on a yearly basis, falling victim to unbridled capitalism before they can legally purchase a beer, has wider implications than just what logo is on their helmet.

I think the proposal above is a reasonable compromise that benefits the stability of the sport, creates a more predictable and steady labor environment, increases the fiscal and media value of the sport, and still allows players the ability to change their situation or test their market value.

Conclusion

I acknowledge these are aggressive and optimistic proposals, but I also believe the roadmap for what is possible looks not that dissimilar from the suggestions I have made here. The NCAA, conferences, universities and other power brokers in the sport have told us it is impossible. However, when the sport inevitably collapses, they will try to say they told us so.

It is a starting point from which to reclaim organization and guardrails for the sport that I—and we, if you made it this far—love. That’s the difference, and what is missing with the people running the sport and conferences now. Their indifference and lack of proactive thinking make it hard to imagine that they love the sport we grew up on: fall Saturdays spent grilling outside before heading into a modern colosseum to watch the gladiators of our childhood do battle. They have probably never sat in the bleacher seats, only private suites.

I am willing to admit college football is flawed, but I still love it and still believe it can be saved.

This is not meant as a diatribe arguing, “Well, if everything went back to the way it was when I was a kid, it would be better.”

The world has changed; players should be paid and able to transfer. For too long, labor was exploited to the benefit of universities and power brokers, and kids they made millions from were left with nothing.

I am glad it has changed. I am glad programs like Indiana, even though I have given them grief, can be a realistic contender. The old system had too few haves and too many have-nots with no realistic path to contention or long-term sustainability.

Players should be able to make as much money as they can from their likenesses and talents, but there needs to be clarity, transparency, structure, and clear rules and regulations—and consequences for breaking them. Compensation around likeness and personal brand should not be cover for explicit pay-to-play without any clear transparency, structure, or protection on both sides.

College football is not dead. I am not even sure it is dying.

It is making more money and being watched more than ever.

But I am reasonably confident that on this current trajectory, if stakeholders do not step in and enact proactive changes, the sport is going to self-destruct.

Slowly, then all at once, as all great empires fall.

I hope I’m wrong.

— Sincerely, an obsessive and loving College Football Fan

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Maybe it has to do with the fact that the National Football League, and the sport of football in general, has such a cultural stranglehold on American interest that basketball and hockey often find themselves in discussion against one another. Every argument a pundit would make for what is wrong with the NBA — player selfishness, massive egos, lack of loyalty to teams and fans, personal ambition over collective success — is what a hockey fan would say is right with the sport. Hockey’s ethos, and by proxy its highest professional league, the NHL, has always believed in the “We” over “Me”, the collective over the individual, playing for the logo on the front of the jersey, not the name on the back. As with most mythos, it doesn’t hold up under scrutiny, but for a long time across the history of the sport there was some truth to it.

With an unprecedented amount of star player movement, most of it being directed by the players themselves, the summer of 2026 represents an evolution of that mythos. The NHL is taking cues from the NBA whose landscape shifted almost two decades ago.

“Player Empowerment” entered the zeitgeist around the NBA in the mid 2010s, where players used unprecedented financial and social leverage to take control of their careers. LeBron James’ “decision” to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat in the summer of 2010 via free agency, teaming up with Team USA basketball pals Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in Miami, will forever be the crystallizing moment for the new landscape of the league. LeBron, after taking the league by storm, was frustrated with the inability of Cavs ownership and management to surround him with enough support to achieve his championship dreams. After winning a gold medal with some of the other best players in the world, the opportunity for James to play with them full time was too good to pass up. LeBron risked his legacy for a chance to win a championship with fellow stars.

The years following The Decision would see star players no longer sitting back and letting team decision makers drive their career. Now, a star would take an active role in not only where they would play, but who they would play with, and how often. Contract status and term left be damned. The balance of power shifted from organizations, brands, and owners to the players themselves.

The NHL has roughly lagged the NBA by roughly a decade and a half. But a recent unprecedented swirl of star players driving trades from the teams that drafted them in the middle of their primes signals the NHL is finally entering its own “player empowerment” era. Funny enough, just as LeBron, Wade, and Bosh ruminated on the idea of being teammates after the Team USA basketball gold medal in the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the gold medal winning USA Men’s Hockey team resembles a similar catalyzing moment for reshaping the NHL.

Why then suddenly are star players finally exerting more pressure on front offices and driving their own changes of scenery? Nick Zararis at recently explained that finally after several work stoppages and labor disagreements throughout the 2000s, and the COVID pandemic (the NHL relies on a much higher percentage of their revenue from ticket sales than the NFL and NBA due to the disparity in TV deals), the NHL finally was able to achieve significant revenue growth and a rising salary cap.

The Theory of Hockey

The New World: Labor Stability Brings the NHL's Player Empowerment Era

The NHL’s winding road out of financial wilderness took almost 20 years. The NHL lost the entirety of the 2004-2005 regular season because owners locked out the players. The result to bring the game back in the fall of 2005 was a salary cap that’s lagged far behind the other three North American sports leagues…

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3 months ago · 6 likes · The Theory of Hockey

Naturally, player salary growth would follow – that explains rising contract values, but not explicitly player movement. That has more to do with changing values, a rapidly shifting hockey landscape, and the modern athlete.

Over the last six months, elite stars Quinn Hughes (traded from Vancouver to Minnesota), Brady Tkachuk (traded from Ottawa to Florida), and Dylan Larkin (still waiting to be traded from Detroit) have all in one way or another forced their way out of a middling situation with the team that drafted them. This follows the path set by fellow Team USA teammates Jack Eichel (Buffalo to Vegas), and Matthew Tkachuk (Brady’s brother, Calgary to Florida) who took control of their own situations and drove trades to new surroundings, and enjoyed almost immediate success.

For the longest time, NHL stars rarely changed teams, and almost never in their prime. If a true superstar did finally don a new jersey, it was in the twilight of their career in an effort to fight off father time and reality of their declining impact. Wayne Gretzky, most often cited as the greatest hockey player ever, was traded to Los Angeles from Edmonton mostly because ownership had driven the franchise into dire financial straits, and would be unable to afford Gretzky’s next contract (to give you a perspective how far the league has come business wise, Edmonton had won four Stanley Cups in Gretzky’s time there, so this was not an example of a team being bad and having no revenues). The Gretzky situation aside, true elite players have historically never changed teams in the primes of their career. In the modern era, Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Toews, and Patrick Kane all signed long term, team-friendly extensions to the franchises that drafted them. All could certainly have commanded higher compensation had they gone to free agency; all embodied the hockey ethos that you did the right thing and sacrificed somewhat for the betterment of the team.

Today’s modern athletes, particularly American ones, have grown up in a rapidly changing world. Social media, the idea of an athlete as a brand, things like The Decision, have all forced the mentality that a player can care about the team, but they must also do what’s best for themselves and families. A player now in his late twenties grew up with travel teams and all star squads, the idea of your teams not being defined solely by geography and regionality as they have historically been, but by talent and more often money. The Canadian Major Junior that often attracts the best Canadian talent resembles the NHL, where players are selected and drafted to certain teams who own their rights for that league (despite them not being paid or compensated outside of a small living stipend). The American sports ecosystem, like the country itself, revolves more around free market capitalism.

Whether it is weaponizing a ‘No Movement Clause’ (a term in a player’s contract in which they cannot be traded unless explicitly waiving said clause), or refusing to sign a long term extension with a team trying to trade for them (essentially nuking leverage in negotiations), star players disappointed in the trajectory of their current teams, are taking action.

Some recent examples:

The second overall pick in 2015, Jack Eichel, after spending six playoff-less years as a Buffalo Sabre and being named Captain, requested a trade after disagreeing with the organization’s medical handling of a severe neck injury. Agreeing to sign a long term extension with the Las Vegas Golden Knights, he was traded in late 2021 to the team that had taken the league by storm and was already considered by many a Stanley Cup contender (they had already been to a final in 2018). In his first full season with the Knights, Eichel led all players with 26 playoff points, and hoisted the Stanley Cup as the team’s number one center.

Son of a Hall of Famer, former top ten pick Matthew Tkachuk spent six years in the Calgary Flames organization, and became one of the most exciting young players in the league with his brash physical play and elite offensive skillset. The summer after his second contract expired, and Tkachuk became a restricted free agent, he informed Flames management that he did not intend to sign a long term extension when his contract was up the following year. Never being explicitly stated, Tkachuk clearly wanted to play closer to home and family rather than western Canada. Unlike Eichel’s situation, a star that was stuck on a team that showed no hopes of getting closer to a postseason let alone a championship, Calgary had been to the playoffs multiple times with Tkachuk, and looked poised to contend. Personal desire to play in the U.S. won out, and Tkachuk was traded to the Florida Panthers and in his first three seasons with the team he went to the Final and proceeded to win two Stanley Cups. The move is credited with completely shifting the identity of the organization and turning the Panthers, long a basement dweller, into the perennial aggressive contender they are now.

In Vancouver, after the Canucks fell apart and learned their young superstar Captain Defenseman Quinn Hughes would likely not re-sign at the end of his contract term (1.5 years) – the Vancouver Canucks proactively dealt the defenseman back to the United States to the Minnesota Wild (led by Team USA general manager Bill Guerin, teammates Matt Boldy and Brock Faber) less risk losing him for nothing or deteriorating their leverage over another fifteen months. It had widely been reported Hughes wanted to play in the U.S., and possibly with his star brother(s). The Canucks did not want to see a star walk away for nothing, or have this weigh on the franchise for another year and a half, despite having recently achieved the best record in the league and making it to the second round.

Detroit Red Wings’ Captain and Michigan native Dylan Larkin (under contract with a full no movement clause), frustrated with lack of progress in ending the Wings’ decade long playoff drought, recently requested a trade from his hometown team. The list of teams he reportedly submitted: Minnesota (with Hughes), Florida (with Tkachuk, recent Cup winner and finalist), Tampa Bay Lightning (perennial Cup contender in the 2020s), and Vegas (with Eichel). Larkin has yet to be dealt as of this writing, but all reporting points to him going to one of these teams. A hometown kid requested a trade from the team he grew up rooting for, to chase a Cup with another star filled team.

The younger brother of Matthew, Captain Brady Tkachuk informed the Ottawa Senators that he would not commit to a long term extension with the team the next time his contract was up, after a season in which the team finally made it back to the playoffs after years of drafting and developing a stable of young talent (of which Brady was the first piece). While also submitting an approved trade list, it’s clear Brady’s intent and preference was always to join his brother Matthew in Florida. Rather than continue to commit and lead his own team, Brady chose to join his brother full time.

Additional Team USA stars have either publicly put pressure on their teams (goalie Connor Hellebuyck), or communicated they won’t be re-signing (defenseman and current Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski).

A lot has been made about the most frequent destination teams - Vegas, Florida, Tampa, and the Dallas Stars - playing in no income tax states, and that is the reason these players want to go there. While certainly a nice benefit, most likely the strengths of these teams are what is driving these players’ desires to go there. A few more dollars in the bank is nice, but as these players have toiled away, most lacking any tangible postseason success – the experience of winning the Gold medal and playing together, combined with unprecedented leverage in their contracts, has created a rush of player movement to existing contenders with other stars.

Could Canadian stars like Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon follow suit if their recent playoff shortcomings continue? McDavid recently, when able to sign another max term contract extension, chose instead to only re-sign for two years, effectively putting an hourglass on Edmonton Oilers’ management.

Star NHL players have sent the signal that this is a new era. A team no longer gets a ten year window to hope for some success, or the expectation that their homegrown star player will always be there. Players want to see tangible results quickly, and they want to play with other star players. I’m sure playing in nice weather states, and away from Canadian market pressure also helps, but this seemingly is more about players wanting a better chance to win and being aggressive about changing their situation.

Could this be an isolated example, extrapolating a small sample size of a few players who happen to all be American? Sure. But I suspect this is the start of a new era, where players will now take more agency over their careers, and teams will need to be more aggressive in how they plan and build around their young talent. Roughly twenty years after a lockout forced a whole season to not be played, the league’s business has never been better. Stability and financial prosperity have benefited the league and owners, but it also allowed the players to accumulate more leverage than they have ever had. The new age modern athlete has also seen the benefits of taking control of their situation and is using that leverage.

Will the NHL resemble the NBA where parity has been a real struggle, and teams are struggling to be competitive consistently, or will it force managers and teams to adapt and become smarter and more aggressive in the pursuit of talent and championships?

It won’t be boring to watch.

Taking his talents to South Beach, LeBron James ushered in the player empowerment era to the sports lexicon. Nearly two decades later, the NHL player is finally joining in.

Almost ten years ago to the day, I moved to New York City. By unofficial terms, I believe I have earned the right to call myself a real “New Yorker”. Personally, I will always view myself as a midwest kid, and save coveted true “New Yorker” status for those that were born and bred in one of the five boroughs (you don’t get to claim this if you were born in Westchester or New Jersey).

Coincidentally, it is a really fun time to be living in New York City (spoiler alert: it’s always a really fun time to be living in the greatest city in the world). My personal anniversary, and the Knicks championship moment this past Saturday, made me reflective on my home for the last decade, its basketball team, and what it all means.

Sports provide a backdrop for the best of humanity, a canvas for the beauty around us.

After fifty-three years, the New York Knicks ended the longest active drought between titles in the NBA, the majority of those years not just being championship-less but downright tortuous for fans. The Knicks frequently and often either provided heartbreak or outright embarrassment for over five decades. For the City that is the mecca of the sport of basketball, that is a difficult existence.

The thing is, that futility never caused fandom to waiver. Madison Square Garden, the most famous arena in the world, was still at capacity regardless of the team’s record. You only had to go a block or two until seeing a jersey. There was never a mass exodus of representation to the Nets.

The Knicks, either in spite of or because of futility, became a part of the city’s identity.

The only team in the New York area that doesn’t split fandom (Jets or Giants, Yankees or Mets, Devils/Rangers/Islanders). When the Knicks were/are good, the energy is different. The buzz is palpable, the energy infectious.

They do not practice or play in New Jersey or Long Island like other teams. They play in the center of New York City, the eye of the entertainment capital of the world, the heart of the city.

The Knicks are the city’s team.

Ever since I was a kid – I wanted to live in NYC. ~Henry Hill voice~

It was probably the movies — it seemed a right a passage that you had to earn your stripes in the concrete jungle, in the mecca of the world regardless of vocation. If you wanted to make art, or be a star, you went to Hollywood. If you wanted to be in the energy, if you wanted to participate in the greatest capitalistic engine in the world, or if you just wanted to have a good time – you needed to go to New York City. If you were not sure what you wanted to do — you’d figure it out or fall into it in Manhattan.

I would visit nearly annually, awed by the bright lights and billboards of Times Square. Broadway shows, sporting events, the pace, the sheer volume of people and real estate crammed into the island — everything about New York seemed bigger, brighter, and faster.

If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere. Ol' Blue Eyes really cooked with that one, as the kids would say.

When I finally was able to call this City my home, it couldn’t have felt more real. All that cliche stuff you hear about “energy” “pace”, it’s all real.

The city that never sleeps doesn’t just sound good as a tag line, it’s a real thing.

Whether you are waking up at 5am to be the first one in the office, or stumbling home from a night out at the same time (or if you are really lucky you get to do both in a twenty four hour span) stuff is always happening.

The streets are alive, people, cars, trains are mulling about. Before we all wore headphones 24/7 you could appreciate the soundtrack of people, cars, trains and activity at all hours of the day and night. Some people would find that unbearable, for some of us though, it’s what powers us to keep chasing.

There are prettier places. The weather is better in California. If you’re an outdoorsy person, you probably wouldn’t like it here. But there’s no place where more stuff is happening, or things to do, than in New York. Everyone’s in a rush. People can be rude. It’s go go go. But that’s because people are working hard. They want something. They’re going after it. The city forces that out of you. People go to retire in Florida, they move to LA when they’re already rich.

New York? That’s where you come to make it. It’s where you come to work, live, share, and be apart of the hardest workers and the most fun. It’s where you can find your people if you couldn’t anywhere else. That soul that was created on Ellis Island still lives on.

The city goes through ups and downs. Covid threatened to permanently alter it. But like always, New York finds a way. It’s now better than ever. I think it made everyone love and appreciate it more. You don’t know what you have until its gone kind of energy.

Finally — the basketball team gave the city something to celebrate.

Finally, they were the ones delivering the heartbreak.

They were the ones defying the odds, mounting a historical comeback in the greatest arena in sports.

That’s magic baby. The miraculous, historic, unprecedented Game 4 victory would’ve been remembered forever, but it hits different because it was in the Garden.

I’m not one to write about the journey of this Knicks team. I’m not claiming a seat on the bandwagon; that would feel disrespectful to fans who have earned this with heartbreak scars (you know how I feel about that).

Maybe why it all worked was because this team and its identity represented the city perfectly. There was not a single game in the finals where it seemed like the Knicks were the more talented group of players. But they were the better team. Guys like Mitchell Robinson and Josh Hart knowing their roles and embracing them fully. Rebounds, extra hustle plays, stuff that might not make TikTok edits or highlights but what wins championships. Cliche to say but that’s New York baby. There’s no quicker way to endear yourself to this City then doing the dirty work.

There's probably no better star to represent the City and its’ team than Jalen Brunson. 6’2 guard picked in the second round? Too small doesn't have the metrics, fringe rotational player at best. Even after he had proved himself in Dallas all the media talked about was how the Knicks overpaid and he couldn't be “1A” player.

Forget about the fact that he won a high school state championship and two national championships at Villanova. Well he's not a Wemby. He's not Donovan Mitchell. I don’t think he can be the best player on a championship team. He responded by putting up 40+ in a clinching Finals game and now joins a group of people that includes Magic Johnson and Kareem as the only players to win a championship at the High School, College, and now professional basketball level.

Again, New York loves nothing more than the narrative of being the gritty underdog (in Brunson’s case it does hold true, most of the other time it's myth making but as it goes: when the myth is better than the truth, print the myth).

We live in an age of isolation. Algorithms, Ai, mobile phones all forcing us out of the present and into digital amalgamations of unreality, future and past. There is no longer a monoculture. Everything is hyper niche and specific to your feed and interests. There are rare collective moments that tie us to one another — that create a shared experience that binds us to our humanity. Moments that give us a sense of belonging, place and time bringing us together and making us feel something bigger than ourselves.

Sports can still give us that.

In the aftermath of the Knicks championship, the scenes of euphoria were awe inducing. People flocking into the streets celebrating together.

Yeah they might’ve been filming it, but at least they / we weren’t scrolling and were doing it with other people, with their neighbors and friends. They were hugging and kissing strangers. Dancing, singing, celebrating in the streets. Together. That’s what sports can give us. Collective moments, a shared joy after decades of pain and heartbreak or even if a casual fan, pride in your city.

I thought about my Knicks fan friends who have waited their whole lives for this moment. They grew up with their father’s stories of the last championship in 1973.

When the Garden was Eden.

They watch highlights of Ewing, LJ and ‘99.

They were in high school for “Linsanity”.

They deserve this.

They never waivered.

The shared suffering was the point. It seemed as if they would go their whole life without this moment, something to tie themselves to generations past and future.

Being a Knicks fan (before Saturday) was often how I probably felt about living in New York City. Sometimes its huge pain in the ass, way too expensive, people could be assholes. But then I always find myself coming back. Missing it, feeling like the luckiest person in the world I get to live here. The beauty of the hustle and bustle, the noise of the busy subway stations and street vendors. All different types of people coming together to make the most beautiful melting pot of culture and energy you can ever experience. You’ll never be bored here. There’s magic all around.

There’s something everyone here shares, a collective ideal of striving, of chasing something that resembles your own version of the American Dream. New York is the city where dreams are forged through effort, capital, and that aforementioned energy.

The Knicks championship felt like a moment for the city - my city - of pure joy and celebration. Of people coming together to have that moment, to celebrate their home and each other. It was a reminder that no matter what else is going on, whatever things we are arguing about, or whatever the algorithms are pushing us to engage with – there are things we can experience and feel that are bigger than ourselves.

There are moments that make you see the good in humanity again, what real love looks like. Love between people, a city and its basketball team.

Ten years in and I’m getting overly romantic about sports and my own anniversary. I refuse(d) to hop on the proverbial bandwagon but I unabashedly admit it was impossible not to root for the Knicks because it felt like rooting for the city, my city now. I wanted to experience that moment, I wanted to be reminded why I loved this city since I was a kid.

Sometimes being sports obsessed can feel stupid, a waste of time and energy and needless suffering.

You dwell and focus on the lives and performance of athletes you will never know, whose actions and influences you cannot impact.

At their best, sports can give us moments like last weekend a collective celebration of a team and city releasing fifty three years of trauma and pain. A reason to come together, to share something, anything that is real with other people.

I love New York.

Hello family, friends, casual acquaintances, random internet bypassers - spring has fully sprung, and we are in what I consider to be the second-best period of the year for a sports fan (September - November is unquestionably the best). Spring gives us the NBA and NHL playoffs, baseball in full swing, and the NFL offseason’s biggest moment the annual draft. The weather is improving, vibes are high (or low depending on the current status of your team), and there’s plenty to talk about.

Let’s get into some topics, working backwards chronologically, that have been on my mind the last few weeks.

Connor McDavid, is Straight Up Not Having a Good Time

Aside from the Florida Panthers, no team in the NHL has had more success over the last three years than the Edmonton Oilers. After a decade as one of the worst teams through the mid-2000s to the 2010s, the Oilers were rewarded by the draft lottery gods for the fourth time in 2015 when generational prospect Connor McDavid was available. “Generational” is a term that gets used far too often with prospects, but in McDavid’s case, he has lived up to the billing.

He is without a doubt the current best player in the league and will almost certainly win a fourth MVP trophy this year. Edmonton also had the fortune of finding another home-grown superstar to be McDavid’s running mate, and incredibly Leon Draisaitl has also become a superstar.

The hardest thing to do in sports is draft and develop a legitimate superstar franchise player, capable of carrying your team to a championship(s). The Penguins did it with Malkin and Crosby, the Blackhawks dynasty with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, and Edmonton, despite years of futility, found themselves with McDavid and Draisaitl. The dynamic duo has almost single-handedly brought the Oilers a championship - coming within one shot in Game 7 two years ago (after being down 3-0), and getting back to the final round last year before losing in six games to the Panthers yet again.

Look at the breakdown in the teams results with McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice versus when they are not, per recent post on McDavid.

McDavid signed a two-year extension right before the start of the season, below market value to commit to Edmonton. However, a two-year term clearly sent a message to management and ownership that at nearing thirty and having achieved every individual accolade possible, McDavid will not give Edmonton unlimited chances to keep trying and failing to build a true championship contending team around him and Draisaitl. The team chose to employ disgraced former Blackhawks’ general manager Stan Bowman, whose moves to improve the team this year consist of a whole lot of nothing (hyperlink) and trading volatile goaltender Stuart Skinner for *checks notes* extremely volatile, injury-prone goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry also has another two years on his contract at $5.5m per year, while Skinner is an unrestricted free agent after the year. Bowman also included defenseman Brett Kulak and a second-round draft pick to get Pittsburgh to give them Jarry - who clearly had worn out his welcome in the Steel City and whose contract had become a massive burden on the Penguins.

Unsurprisingly, Edmonton’s lack of depth around their two superstars, their volatile goaltending, and the fact they have played more games than any team besides Florida (whose injuries and fatigue resulted in them not even making the playoffs this year) caught up to them, and they were quickly eliminated in the first round against the young, upstart Anaheim Ducks.

Immediately after being eliminated, McDavid had some revealing words about his team.

We were an average team all year. Um, you know, um an average team with high expectations. You're going to be disappointed.

Emotion can get the best of a competitor, especially right after a defeat that ends their season. Surely, with a day or two to let the emotions subside, McDavid and Draisaitl would be a little more optimistic.

Nope.

Yes, I am concerned because we're not trending in the right direction. We've taken big steps backwards, and we got to get a grip of this and head back in the right direction.

McDavid and Draisaitl, in extremely honest and candid fashion that is rare for professional hockey players, essentially said they are not happy with things. Draisaitl is signed long term, but McDavid’s contract expires in two years, and if both are unhappy, could ask out sooner than later. Edmonton would not allow either to go into the the final years of a contract and risk losing them for nothing via free agency (ala Mitch Marner in Toronto). Some difficult conversations need to be had. Edmonton, after continually going all-in to try and surround their superstars with immediate help, have almost no high-end draft capital to work with.

They do not have a first round pick until 2028. It is going to be difficult to swing any sort of big time trade for an immediate difference maker, without any high end draft picks. Their salary cap situation is less than optimal, especially with multiple free agents and a less than ideal free agent pool to go after with said money.

McDavid will be 30 the next time the Oilers play a playoff game. Leon is already 30. The alarms should be ringing off the hook in Edmonton, and you have to seriously wonder if the team needs to either accept it has mismanaged the primes of its superstars, and make some miracle moves, or try to get what would certainly be the biggest haul of a return ever and start this whole process again (for the third time).

McDavid also needs to consider if he’s willing to waste another two years, while he is still elite, metaphorically skating into a brick wall while the people in charge of running the team make unforced error after unforced error.

It will be fascinating to watch it play out. He should probably give his team Canada Captain and Director of Player Personnel a call, who also happen to have a plethora of draft capital and salary cap space. Just a thought.

The Pittsburgh Penguins eliminated by the Philadelphia Flyers

After a completely unexpected, entertaining, and overall great regular season, the Penguins were eliminated by cross-state rivals in the first round of the playoffs in Game 6, losing 1-0 in overtime. After completely no-showing games 1-3, the Penguins mounted a respectable effort to get back into the series, but left themselves no margin for error for the rest of the way.

Despite failing to win a playoff series once again (they have failed to advance past the first round since 2018) - this season was unquestionably a success for the black and gold. The only contention the Penguins we’re expected to compete for in the preseason was the lottery for top prospect Gavin McKenna. There we’re questions about Crosby’s future in Pittsburgh, and the team responded by finishing second in the metropolitan division, bringing in young talent such as Ben Kindel, and having their “Big 3” future Hall of Famers provide a proper send-off.

TBD whether it truly is the end of the era - Malkin is an unrestricted free agent and curiously has not been offered a contract after a very good season. Letang has two more years on his contract and played well in the back half of the Flyers series, but whose on-ice play has trended in the wrong direction more dramatically than his counterparts. If this is the end, a great season and a spirited almost comeback against their biggest rivals is a better send off than tanking for the top pick would have been. Even with a new Malkin contract, the Penguins have the most cap space of any team, and plenty of draft picks.

I suspect General Manager Kyle Dubas will make a big move this summer, and the Penguins will be back in the playoffs again next year.

Drew Allar is a Pittsburgh Steeler

The most interesting, for better or worse, development for myself personally over the last few weeks is that Steelers selected Quarterback Drew Allar out of Penn State with one of their third round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. There was no world in which the Steelers didn’t draft a quarterback this year in one of the middle rounds. After first overall pick Fernando Mendoza, this was a less than desirable quarterback draft, with pretty much every prospect after Mendoza coming with serious question marks or red flags.

When the Steelers hired Mike McCarthy this offseason, after the surprising departure of Mike Tomlin, the decision makers pretty much said it was because of his history of working with Quarterbacks. Whether Aaron Rodgers decides he is not ready to become a full-time conspiracy theorist ayahuasca salesmen, or last year’s sixth round pick Will Howard takes the reins - it made sense to add another developmental quarterback. I have always subscribed to the belief that especially with quarterbacks, given how impactful they are to the success of your team in the long and short term, you really need to just keep rolling the dice until you hit on one.

In that vein, I actually think the Allar pick is the right one to make. This is not “high floor/low ceiling/safe starter” pick, it is long tail outcomes either way. Either he ends up being really really good, or really really bad. There is no in-between. Allar has all the physical tools you would come up with if asked to design an ideal quarterback. He is everything traditional “football men” have preached about the position for years.

The reason the Steelers were able to select him, and why he was available in the third round, was because throughout his four years at Penn State, Allar failed to put it all together, and take the step from highly touted prospect to elite performer. He never lived up to the billing as the #1 quarterback recruit in the nation, never was able to use those dreamlike physical traits in a way that resulted in wins to get Penn State over the top against the Michigans, Oregons, and Ohio State’s. He continually struggled with accuracy, consistency, and footwork. That is not typically what you look for when drafting a quarterback in the NFL. However, if McCarthy and staff can fix those things, which most draft experts say is fixable - then the upside is worth the swing. If you are going to roll the dice on a quarterback with flaws, the upside needs to be worth it.

You cannot coach a rocket arm, you cannot develop a guy into having a 6’5 frame. In this sense, the pick is the right move. I am not convinced a Carson Beck or Garrett Nussmeier would have been any safer a pick than Allar, and at least he has higher potential to be a difference maker at the game’s most important position, given his physical skillset. Allar should have the luxury of sitting and developing behind the scenes this year, whether Rodgers comes back or not. At this point, I am skeptical it is all going to come together in the NFL as someone who watched every single one of his college snaps.

However, I will admit, it will take me exactly one good throw in a meaningless pre-season game to get irrationally optimistic and believe they have found their next franchise quarterback after wandering in mediocrity after Ben Roethlisberger retired.

I am ready to get hurt again.

Author Note: When I first came up with the idea for naming this publication “Pressure Point”, I wanted to write about moments, stories, and the people behind them. I have always loved reading profiles, articles or pieces of writing telling another person’s story or providing a snapshot of a moment in time. I could write about well-known people, including athletes and coaches, or maybe even performers or executives. However, the idea of writing about someone who isn’t widely known, but still has a great story, appealed to me. I connected with , and once I learned about his journey, it resonated with me and felt like the perfect first profile to feature here. Kevin writes his own Substack , which you should check out for much detail on his journey and his current adventure.

The sunlight reflecting off the snow-covered hills, the sharp cuts audible across the Telluride mountains from skiers and snowboarders making the most of the beautiful landscape. Many come here looking for fun and enjoyment with family and friends, a bright winter oasis centered on the outdoors and connection. As far as places to spend a weekend with your girlfriend’s family --- this was a great one. Kevin Martin, now over a decade into his career at Apple in their supply chain logistics department, was working remotely for the week. It would be the perfect break to recharge, get outdoors, and spend some quality time with loved ones.

At least that’s how it was supposed to go. The notifications started to build up slowly, and by Friday they were an avalanche rumbling down the mountains. Apple was scrambling from the impact of tariffs enacted by the Trump administration. While the family and friends were enjoying the holiday weekend, Kevin toiled away on his laptop. He hopped on call after call, trying to put out one fire after another. Things grew worse as the week went on; he fell back into the familiar cycle: available, on-call, wherever, whenever. In the worst moments Kevin saw another few years, more life moments missed, more difficult conversations with loved ones about why he was never really “present”.

The first holiday Kevin spent with his girlfriend’s family, the questions flooded in --- ‘Don’t they know it’s a holiday?’ ‘Can’t it wait until after dinner?’” Now, thirteen years later, there were no questions. This was how it was. The rest of the family connecting and enjoying the holiday, Kevin working.

My days at Apple are numbered, he thought, I just have to get through this, I am almost there.

The plan had been set in motion years earlier, but he still had to wait until he was 40. That was almost three years away. Another thirty-six months of constant stress and anxiety, of nonstop notifications pinging his iPhone. More internal meetings.

As he poured himself a cup of coffee, trying to rouse himself for another day, he watched the others head out to enjoy the mountain. The joy on their faces, their breath visible in the air from the laughter. Kevin had come to Telluride to connect with his partner, her family, and ultimately himself. Instead of being out there, in the place where he felt the most clear and at ease, with people he loved, he once again was stressed, angry, anxious. As someone so intently focused on planning and systems, Kevin knew his own system needed improvement.

The Telluride weekend wasn’t an unfortunate inconvenience; seemingly every day over the following weeks panic ensued, a new catastrophic problem identified. The COVID work craziness had been one thing, everyone was struggling to navigate the uncertainty of a new global pandemic, and honestly Kevin had just been happy to have a job. Now though, almost five years later, the rollercoaster ride was exhausting.

The decision that set Kevin Martin down his path toward the biggest moment of his life started nearly ten years before the Telluride weekend. It took place on a different mountain weekend, in the hills of Blue Ridge, Georgia.

In his words: “I was living for the weekends, and the weekends were mostly just recovery from how much I hated the week. Counting down to five o’clock, drinking until Sunday, repeat. A pretty hollow cycle.”

Like all great plans, it came together in the best or worst way imaginable depending on who you ask. A few too many beers deep, with some friends, in front of a burning fire pit. Maybe it was the alcohol talking (it most definitely was), but Kevin felt instantly compelled to answer the call to action his fellow inebriated compatriot was proposing to him.

You want to climb this?

The friend threw his iPhone in Kevin’s face, a picture of a massive mountain on the screen.

“Hell yeah, let’s do it”, Kevin responded.

The “this” in question was a mountain peak reaching fourteen thousand feet in elevation, one of the most challenging climbs in the United States. Sitting about sixty miles southeast of Seattle, Mt. Rainier represents a challenge for even the most experienced climbers. The decision to take this journey is not made under the most steadfast of mindsets, let alone mid drunken weekend. Kevin ignored all sense of logic and practicality and followed his intuition.

First though, he had to figure out how to not embarrass himself, and also not die.

We’ll probably forget about this tomorrow anyway.

Fighting the urge to back away from his drunken commitment, Kevin remained all-in, his heart racing as he submitted the $1,500 non-refundable deposit to the guide group who would lead his group up the mountain.

“My buddy had attempted something similar the year before with the same guiding company, hadn’t trained, and his whole group had to turn back because of him. I knew I didn’t want to be that guy. So I trained seriously for the first time --- bought the training bible for high-altitude mountaineering, built a plan, scared myself into shape.”

His passion reignited, the frustration and aimlessness gone. It was hard to dwell on his career path or frustrations with work when he was spending weekends building his physical and mental capacity. Those weekends filled with Bud Lights and hangovers? A distant memory.

“All of a sudden I had a reason to be awake that had nothing to do with Apple.”

Eight months after committing, Kevin traveled to Washington, proud of his consistency but apprehensive about the journey in front of him. Thirty pounds lighter, the by-product of thirty-two weeks of training, and clear-eyed about his purpose. None of which would help him much on a fourteen-thousand-foot climb in sub-zero temperatures and skin-tearing winds.

Why couldn’t I have taken up golf instead?

Steam coming off the coffee of his fellow climbers, getting ready to ascend to the summit --- Kevin found himself wishing he had been attracted to more easy-going hobbies. “Remember why you are doing this. Every part of you is going to want to quit, my job is to make sure you don’t,” the mountain guide reminded him. The climb to the top was excruciatingly difficult, his legs and back screaming out in pain. Kevin found himself constantly waiting for the guide to check in so he could ask to stop, but they soldiered on.

He thought about the months of training and reflected on how far he’d come to power him through the trip to the peak. His legs ached from the climb. One step at a time, the fear of falling or making a misstep kept him focused. “Here we are,” the guide finally said. Reaching the summit, exhausted and altitude-drunk, was euphoric. Looking out with mountains appearing above the clouds the realization hit Kevin:

I can’t believe I’ve worried about so many things that don’t matter. No one is going to care if their iPhone is a day late.

The years after Rainier were the best of Kevin’s life. He found meaning outside of work --- embracing yearly challenges that pushed and developed him mentally and physically. With the pressure of finding meaning eased, he actually excelled at work, steadily rising in stature and earning more responsibility. He became infatuated with the idea of financial independence, and the ability to live life on his own terms. The plan worked, almost too well. Money, as Kevin describes it, became a mental cage. Dramatic personal cost cutting, constant checking of Apple stock price and brokerage accounts, living and dying by the day’s market moves. The number Kevin started with that he would need to retire, replaced with constantly changing targets. He wondered about the people around him, and why everyone else wasn’t doing the same:

Kevin watched his colleagues and wondered why no one else was getting out. The answer, he says, surprised him: “slowly you find out --- no one had millions. They’d spent it all“. For Kevin, the rapidly appreciating stock price was his exit lever, but for others it was justification to themselves. “You walk through the Apple parking garage and it’s Porsches, Rivians, BMWs. The lifestyle creep is total and invisible from the inside. I don’t judge it --- there are real reasons people spend that way. But I just kept my life simple.”

Almost five years after looking out from the summit of Rainier, Kevin was back in a dark bar.

PING

The notifications kept hitting his phone, but Kevin left it in his pocket. His eyes glazed over, the neon haze of dive bars in Central Pennsylvania. Few more years, Kevin thought. Almost there. He checked his phone, ignoring the notifications, but scrolling to his financial accounts. The numbers stopped really having much meaning to him. The goalposts always felt like they were moving anyway.

Pennsylvania was supposed to be a promotion. The elevation in responsibility, the sheer amount of attention, the massive number of moving parts in the warehouse created pressure that was agonizing.

In 2018, with life trending in his direction, he agreed to an opportunity to lead a warehouse build-out in Pennsylvania. Leading the operations, being the self-described ‘boots on the ground’, he was ready to bring everything he’d learned on the mountains and the trails to the job.

Two years of missed deadlines, finger-pointing, and budget overruns followed. The project failed. Kevin’s professional identity had been built around solving and optimizing systems. Being flown up to Pennsylvania to lead a major effort, and then have it fail, was shattering to his self-image. The culture in the group became extremely negative, with stress and resentment surging. Burnout ran rampant; most people were either fired or quit. Kevin shouldered a lot of it internally, struggling to bear the responsibility of such a high-profile internal mess. Far from his home in Nashville, Kevin fell back into old habits.

After the trip with his girlfriend’s family to Telluride, Kevin drowned in work from January to April as Apple figured out how to navigate the impact of the Trump tariffs. Kevin, his girlfriend, and their dog loaded the car in Nashville and drove to Utah. Three weeks in a Park City Airbnb. No phone, no constant pings, just the three of them. Testing out what life post-Apple could actually feel like. Kevin’s head was clearer than it had been in years. On April 19th, 2025, he wrote himself a note he can still pull up: I AM LEAVING APPLE.

He told his plans to his parents, and expected at least one of them --- probably his dad --- to tell him he was crazy. Everyone agreed: he needed to leave. His dad told him to wait for the the last stock grant in a few months, then go.

October 15th - the day Kevin received his final Apple stock grant and the day he turned in his resignation to Apple. That afternoon, he finally communicated his decision in a one-on-one with his boss. When Kevin had quit previous jobs, superiors had been confrontational. This time was different. His boss was blindsided --- Kevin was ‘the one guy always kind of positive’ on a team where everyone hated their lives --- but supportive. In the weeks that followed, leaders Kevin barely knew opened up to him. Senior people making millions confided they were jealous, that they wished they could do the same. They just needed three more years.

Three more years. The same number Kevin had been telling himself before Telluride.

Kevin gave Apple a few more months, wanting to help his team manage the holiday rush before departing. His last official day was December 23rd, the Christmas holiday providing the first few days to enjoy his life without Apple for the first time in thirteen years. No more 4:30 AM wake ups, rushing from the gym to the office; getting pinged for calls after work.

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A few weeks later, Kevin was sitting at home on a Sunday night. He didn’t know what day it was at first. Then he realized --- it was Sunday. For thirteen years, Sunday nights had meant dread, the countdown to Monday morning already ticking. This time, nothing. Just a quiet evening. If anything, he was excited about the week ahead.

Kevin woke up without an alarm for the first time in years. He and his girlfriend developed a morning routine, walking trails together without their phones. Never thinking of himself as a creative type, suddenly with time and space to think, Kevin realized he had a lot of things he wanted to write about. Days now starting with creative thinking, writing, and leaving his phone at home.

“When I left, I was swarmed with people asking how and why, some told me I needed to document my travels on YouTube etc., but I hate social media. It’s really bad for me. Writing on Substack seemed like a better way, and it’s grown rapidly and has been a way for me to connect with new and interesting people.”

Kevin says he doesn’t know what comes next professionally. Every time the question comes up, he circles back to the same frame: one chunk at a time. He named his publication ‘Unmapped’, because it’s how the rest of his life feels.

“I’m hoping the trails surface what’s next”.

After Colorado, he realized that “I don’t have the time to do that” was an excuse. The dream, the one he’d shared with friends and family for years, didn’t have to die just because he was older.

It’s the same approach he’s taking to the Appalachian Trail. He started 2026 aiming to hike a thousand miles --- a dream he’d buried, thinking he’d missed his window. Now he’s doing it 150 miles at a time.

Last month he met a seventy-five-year-old man, BT, who hands out snacks to hikers on the trail, “the least I can do is make sure they get a cold drink and treat along the way”. Then there was James, a twenty-year-old junior at Kevin’s alma mater who was considering opting out of the entry level business career path for working in a national park. The people he’s met are just as important as the miles he’s traveling.

A forty-seven-mile stretch of solitude forces him to step back, take a breath, and work through everything in his head.

He’s prepping for the next stretch --- 300 miles, three weeks, the longest consecutive section he’s done. Kevin is heading into the first stretch, a twelve day trail of solitude, carrying everything on him that survival will require. It’s hard to reconcile the man he describes himself as before Rainier with the one speaking now.

A few weeks into his new life, Kevin and his girlfriend went back to Telluride. One morning, Kevin awoke and looked at the clock: just before 7:00 AM. He got up and made coffee, the aroma filling the room of their small Airbnb. There weren’t any skiers out and about this time, but Kevin took in the scenery, thinking about how different his life was now from four months ago. When asked, the contrast is stark:

“The previous year was like being waterboarded in front of family members. This year felt like unlimited creative abundance.”

His girlfriend woke up, they shared coffee, and headed out for a hike with the dog. Kevin didn’t even check his phone before leaving the house. It was still plugged into the wall charging beside his bed.

When asked what comes after this 300 mile section he’s about to hike, Kevin answers:

“I’m not sure, I guess I’ll take it 150 miles at a time and figure it out”

Unmapped

Left Apple after ~13 years to backpack 1,000 miles. What happens when you stop optimizing and let the trail shape what’s next?

By Kevin

The first beautiful day of spring is a momentous occasion; a time to celebrate the transition from winter, especially in New York City. I spent the first 70+ degree day after a long cold winter doing what anyone would hope to be doing on a sun-filled spring day: serving jury duty. While sitting in the drab, soulless federal building - wishing I was enjoying the first beautiful spring day, the fact struck me that it had been roughly a year since I published my first post on Substack. Sitting bored on an anniversary, waiting to find out if I would be required to report to court for multiple weeks is a great time for reflection on a year of writing.

• First, and the most important - I found something that scratches my “creative” itch, and I was able to stay consistent with it. For the last several years I found myself interested in finding a creative outlet, but always would fail to sustain any prolonged interest. I took the leap of not only writing, but actually sharing online. I came to the realization that I love writing, and stuck with it somewhat consistently for a full year. That is something I am proud of and excited about. Sometimes just finding something you are excited to keep doing is a win in and of itself.

• One area that anyone who creates anything will tell you is that consistency and repetition are a massive part of improvement. While proud I stayed with it for a year, my output could be described as “scattered”. I averaged about a post a month, but the gaps between writing could be weeks, sometimes stretching to a month or longer. A few months had multiple essays, some had none. A big focus for year two is being more consistent with writing and sharing, because the only way to become a better writer is to write more.

• I have a desire to improve, and to keep writing. A reliable signal that I can stay consistent with any endeavor is if I have a genuine interest in the process of improvement. From constantly thinking about different topics to write about, to reviewing ways I could have improved pieces I had already published, to formulating new experiments or formats to try – I felt a drive to push myself. Seeking constant improvement and development is usually a high-quality signal you will be able to stay with an activity for the long haul.

• Writing consistently has changed the way I read. As a voracious reader since childhood, I’ve found writing on my own has allowed me to approach the material from a more analytical perspective. While I will always read for enjoyment and leisure, I find my mind now filled with questions like “Why did the author structure this sentence in this way?” “Why are scenes constructed in this manner?” “How do they develop their writing from beginning to middle to end?” Writing has cultivated a greater appreciation for how words come together and has expanded my admiration for talented authors, and made me want to read not only for enjoyment, but for skill development as well.

• I’ve written on this before here and here, but one of the largest benefits of writing for me has been forced clarity of thought. In the age of relentless stimulation, clarifying my own thoughts in a cogent manner is a constant struggle. Writing forces me to organize and outline points, and when I know I am going to be publishing words into the world to be read, I’ve had to become direct, clear, and concise – resulting in becoming a stronger communicator overall.

• Creating something that other people enjoy is incredibly rewarding. Pouring my heart, soul, and scars of a decade-plus of fandom into an essay about Penn State football resulted in a piece of work I am proud of. It was the “thing” I had craved to write, and when friends or family told me how much they enjoyed it, I felt a flow of gratitude. All the time I spent revising and editing felt worth it when genuine support came in and I could see people choosing to share it with others. You ultimately need your own guiding light in any pursuit, rather than creating to please someone else, but anyone who tells you they are immune to the reception their work receives is lying.

• Constraints direct focus and expand creativity. When first starting this, I was not sure what to write about. I experimented with different topics from sports, to my own personal endeavors, to broader cultural insights. This goes against the grain of modern media or content which rewards hyper “niche’ing” – i.e. picking one thing and sticking to it. One of my biggest inspirations in writing and media at large is Bill Simmons, and his ability to paint different topics together through sports, movies, and culture. I want to create my own version of that, where I won’t be constrained to writing about one thing. This is not a job, so I crave the freedom to chase the sources of inspiration. Sometimes that feels too broad, and like Thor needing his magic hammer Mjolnir to channel his lightning powers, I needed a throughline instrument to tie everything together. Suddenly a new name not only brought a cohesive vision, but a clear direction on where I want to explore further.

• Experimentation is necessary for evolution and passion. I’ve played around with numerous types of posts, mainly in an effort to see what types I enjoy writing. These varied from classic “lessons from” essays, to post-game recaps during the Stanley Cup Final, to massive narrative journeys through a decade of a Penn State football program. It helped reveal the types I like to create and spend time on, and more importantly the types I do not. There will be more experiments in the future, but I have a much more solid idea than I did a year ago about what kinds of things I want to write about.

• Metric tracking is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it is helpful to have tools and data to measure and track “improvement” over time, but therein lies the problem: What constitutes “improvement”? I found myself struggling with this battle often. If I feel I wrote something strong, but it didn’t get as many “opens” or “shares” as previous posts - was it worse? If I purposefully aimed for something that was more “engaging” or “viral”, but I wasn’t proud of the quality, or didn’t enjoy the process of writing it - was that really an improvement? It can be difficult to not focus on chasing these metrics - more followers, subscribers, clicks, views, shares. These are data points of “growth”, and the conditions that equal success today. Letting that focus become too central, however, I found myself shifting away from “I want to write about and explore this topic” to “this is really topical right now I should write about it because people will engage with it and share it”. Swimming in the waters on X/Twitter, I learned after a few nasty comments and DMs that engagement for engagement’s sake was a game I had no interest in playing.

• As I enter the second year of this publication, the focus will continue to remain on quality over quantity. I will aim to write in a more consistent manner, but never at the expense of quality. There will be more depth into the “pressure point” theme - the nexus of important and interesting stories, and the people involved in them. I want to meet and spotlight interesting people doing cool things. Some new experiments will be coming, but I will continue to write about topics that I am passionate about, and share some more personal stories. I believe now, more than ever, authenticity is valuable.

I don’t really know where this is going, or where year two will bring me, but I am committed to staying the course and writing one word at a time. The last year has been filled with breakthroughs, frustration, bursts of creativity, fits of writer’s block – but ultimately joy, clarity and excitement for what is yet to come.

Thank you for reading!

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For whatever reason, whether quality, tone, cast – these films immediately get added to an internal watchlist that I keep that revolves around the fact that I will one day watch said movies on an airplane. I call these movies: plane movies (this is the high level writing you come here for – I know).

These movies usually sit between 90-120 minutes in length, are of middling quality, but crucially not bad enough that I wouldn’t want to watch them. They also aren’t good enough to either: A) go and see them in a theater or B) command my undivided attention while sitting at home.

All this to say, I found myself on an airplane recently scrolling through the list of available movies on Delta’s seat-back entertainment screen – and landed on a recent entry to the “plane movies” list; 2025’s musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere.

The film is not particularly good; it’s a fairly cliché rags-to-riches biopic journey. However, I want to be upfront: this is not a piece of writing about the film, Springsteen’s music, or one of the relevant things a viewer usually considers when watching a two hour music biopic about one of the most famous rock-stars of all-time.

This is about how this seemingly mundane airplane entertainment helped me come to grips with the ever-increasing omnipotence of artificial intelligence in our daily lives.

Yes, you read that right. I just provided a 273 word intro about a mediocre music biopic to relate it to my feelings on the artificial intelligence wave.

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Unless you have been living under a rock for the last few years, the rapid development of artificial intelligence and its impact on the economy, jobs, career paths – basically life – has been impossible to ignore. Every day a new deluge of headlines “AI is going to replace [this field]”, “If you are not learning how to automate your job, someone else will”. The hysteria can border on overdramatic, but the impact from this technology is starting to take real shape in reality. Last week, Jack Dorsey’s company Block laid off approximately 40% of its workforce, citing AI’s ability to increase productivity without human expense (paraphrasing mine). Its stock shot up 25% on the news – the voting mechanism that is the stock market effectively applauding 4,000 people being suddenly unemployed.

Being a part of the generation that has spent the first decade of our careers looking to find some place in the world, we’re now experiencing that everything we learned or have been trained on is about to be ripped out from under us. Perfect timing as late stage millennials or early Gen Z approach the time in our lives we should be starting families, buying a house, reaching peak earnings power – you could forgive one for experiencing a little stress about the outlook of things.

There is one specific scene within the first hour of Deliver Me From Nowhere – Bruce is taking his new-found love interest out for a late-night joy ride, basking in the euphoria and excitement of new found love, driving in a new sports car (a symbol of his new found fame and success post The River album). Immediately the scene and the actors’ performances helped me make peace with humanity’s place in the world on the cusp of a new technological revolution.

As “The Boss” and his newfound love interest speed down the late night New Jersey streets with the windows down, the radio blasts some classic 80s rock music. Bruce and our female lead exchange momentary glances at each other, streetlights reflecting in their eyes illuminating their profound infatuation and attraction to one another. Incredible lighting and emotive performances from Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen) and actress Odessa Young communicate everything without a single word of dialogue. Their facial expressions, sly smirks, the look in their eyes saying “God, what did I get myself into here”. The full gamut of emotion in four quick cuts. The scene evokes the rush of promise, hope, longing and feeling you have at the beginning of a courtship where you think to yourself: “I am completely raptured by this person”. The rush of “butterflies” in your stomach, your mind starting to plot out a future with this person you barely know, but quickly found yourself falling for.

The scene immediately transports the audience to that moment in time when they themselves felt that way about someone or something.

How is this possibly related to artificial intelligence? The reason the moment was effective, the reason the audience can buy into the look and feeling of the love between the two characters, is because it is a distinctly human experience. Watching two people, experience and take part in that moment, only works because the viewer sees and relates to two other humans operating in a distinctly human fashion. Even me writing these words now renders them less effective, but a machine literally can’t comprehend or create that moment because it will never know that moment or have the ability to experience emotional depth. It will never find itself falling stupidly, deeply, irrationally in love with another human being while a Little Richard record blares out of the stereo, cruising down the late night backroads with wind in your hair.

Artificial intelligence can write a scene in the sense of putting the correct series of words together based on past iterations. It can describe it in detail, producing a sterilized output portraying the activity. There will be a point where the models or tools create video and image aimed at driving the same outcome. No matter the technical quality, an audience can’t resonate with it because we inherently know it’s not the creation of a human being. AI can create words and output - but it can’t fall or be in love. The machines will never have that feeling of early relationship euphoria. ChatGPT or Claude or Grok will never have its heart broken, or look at someone and against all better judgement allow itself to fall for them.

Because of this, no matter how good it is delivering a structured output, what will hold AI back is what will continue to save humanity. It can’t experience human emotion.The end consumer or viewer inherently knows this, it’s in our DNA, so we inherently reject it.

Does this matter? Shareholders, corporations, and global powers aren’t going to slow the development of new technology because it can’t feel or generate emotional pathos.

It’s ultimately up to us, as society, as individuals, to determine how much it matters.

As good as Artificial Intelligence has and will continue to get, there is a natural paradox. It’ll always be artificial. That’s fine when you’re automating spreadsheets and purchase orders, or reviewing legal documents. It doesn’t work when you are trying to make someone feel something. When you are trying to drive connection and meaning. When you are trying to make something human.

I am not sure why a scene in an otherwise middling Bruce Springsteen biopic made me feel a little better about humanity’s outlook, but it did.

We all could use a few reminders that what makes us valuable and human are the same things that OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and even Elon Musk can’t recreate. No matter how much money they are going to throw towards it.

One great scene made me feel something, it made me come to grips with our place in the world, and maybe, just maybe, we’re going to be alright. I just wish the rest of the movie had been as effective.

But hey – it was a plane movie for a reason after all.

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Winter in New York City can be unforgiving. Freezing temperatures forcing you inside cramped dwellings. The minimal sunlight you do get, unable to be enjoyed because of the frostbitten climate. While most of the northeast was engulfed last weekend in negative temperatures, trying to find the will to survive through winter, I, like many others, thought through ways to pass the time inside.

Figuring out ways to keep yourself busy, or entertain yourself, is a problem few people spend much energy on these days. I myself have spent countless hours scrolling, streaming, binging, gaming – all in an effort to cognitively disassociate after long days.

Apps, social media, iPhones - a never ending buffet of dopamine that masks passive consumption for activity.

The end results of which leaves you feeling more tired and stressed than before. Cortisol spiked and dopamine depleted.

Alas, with the benefit of an empty apartment (my fiancée was traveling for work), and after my two-year-old golden retriever and I survived a jaunt into the polar vortex; I did something I had been avoiding. I did something I too often use the aforementioned distractions to avoid.

I actually sat down, with a pen and a piece of paper, turned my phone off – and spent time writing by hand.

Now my personal impetus was of the self improvement variety (I found a simple pdf “workbook” aimed at pushing you to reflect and clarify your own intentions, limitations, and goals) – but any version would have sufficed. Journaling, coloring, note taking, doodling.

Now why did I do this? Was I struck by some sort of inspiration for self improvement? Did being locked in an apartment, unable to leave because of negative temperatures, drive me to look inward? Was I struck by a need to confront my deep rooted issues so strongly I couldn’t help but write thoughts out by hand?

Hardly. I, like many a modern person, had a backlog of articles, videos, activities, tasks saved “for some later time”. A growing pile of mental loose ends that in the moment I deemed important, but not important enough to stop whatever I was doing.

I finally decided enough was enough, and freezing temperatures, an empty apartment (aside from a snoozing puppy) was enough impetus to say ‘you know what – I’m actually going to do one of these things’. I didn’t have anywhere to be, and instead of snacking on attention junk food, I was going to write with a pen and paper.

By the end, I felt completely invigorated and refreshed.

I feel little need to go into the specifics here regarding the self improvement stuff, you probably have your own backlog of articles, exercises and activities you can work through.

What blew me away about this specific exercise was the clarity with which it presented, and required you to actually write the words by hand. The magic of holding a pen in your hand, thinking through what you actually want to expend energy putting on a piece of paper sharpens your thoughts and output.

In an age where everything and anything can be created by technology, when your hand is actually sore from writing it forces you to figure out what matters.

In an ever increasing world of speed, optimization, efficiency - the deliberate art of slowing down, and physically grounding yourself in something is a relic of bygone times.

But maybe our boomer parents were on to something - as my hand grew sore from the pen in my hand, writing down ten sentences on “the ideal version of myself” and “what limiting beliefs I tell myself” I realized that, yes, the exercise was stimulating. But the real value was forcing myself to clarify what I actually wanted, what matters to me, and steps I can take to get there.

As the hours passed, I found myself getting deeper and deeper into my answers, approaching views and thoughts I had never sat with before.

The exercise also helped me anchor to the present moment, and ultimately to myself. I wasn’t rotting away on the couch watching someone else do something, I was actively using my own mind and skillset.

It brought me back to why I enjoy writing in the first place. It’s great to create something sure, and my mom gets a lot of enjoyment out of these articles, however ultimately it’s a way for me to take unlimited external stimuli and make them into something of my own.

Maybe it has been the artificial intelligence boom, or just my own inability to stay offline, but I increasingly find myself stressed, exhausted and overwhelmed with external stimuli. The latest viral thread, trending topic, hot tea, controversial sports take. Not even to broach things like political scandals, economic concerns. All of it creates a constant sense of mental nausea, your brain sick from constant stimulants and overindulgence.

Find something that allows you to unplug from the matrix–to use a cliche analogy.

Maybe for you it’s listening to music, exercising, catching up with friends, it can literally be anything. We all need something that allows us to disconnect from the attention machines, telling us what to think and what to do.

I now grasp why people got into gardening, or why my dad liked using tools and fixing things.

Maybe it can be something as simple as going for a walk (except when it’s -15 degrees out but you get my point), and not listening to a podcast at 1.5x speed or anything at all.

Because that’s the thing - when you’re constantly being stimulated and force fed inputs externally, it’s impossible to generate thoughts of your own. Your internal operating system can’t come up with outputs if it’s expending all its energy on processing inputs.

After about three hours, my puppy woke up, and it was almost time for a second bathroom break.

It felt great to finally sit down and work through something I had saved in the “do later” digital pile.

The real benefit was sitting down and writing by hand, and clarifying my own thoughts.

Back out into the frostbitten wind we went, but I felt mentally a thousand pounds lighter. I didn’t know how long the dog and I were going to be out, but I felt closer to knowing where we were going.

Photo: CBS Sports, Getty Images

In the middle of a quiet Saturday, while most of the east coast braced for a historic blizzard, the Pittsburgh Steelers announced they were hiring Mike McCarthy. A sixty-two-year-old, currently unemployed, and not seriously on any other teams’ radar (despite the Titans interviewing him as well).

Since his father, legendary owner Dan Rooney, passed, current Pittsburgh owner Art Rooney II has made decision after decision with one priority: what increases the likelihood of not losing more games than winning.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a beacon of consistency in the NFL, bucking every conceivable trend. Three head coaches in 56 years. Six Super Bowl championships. Chuck Noll won four. Bill Cowher added a fifth. Mike Tomlin, a relatively unknown defensive assistant when hired, delivered a sixth by 2008.

Tomlin went on to become the symbol of modern coaching excellence. Nineteen consecutive seasons without a losing record—a mark that will likely stand untouched. Even after Ben Roethlisberger retired, Tomlin kept the ship above .500, something not even Belichick managed post-Brady.

But excellence and winning championships are not the same thing. Somewhere along the way, the standard shifted. Super Bowl or Bust became “make the playoffs and hope for the best.” Seven consecutive postseason losses. Blowouts at home against Mahomes and Allen. A franchise that never misses an opportunity to trot out its Super Bowl past was becoming defined by January humiliations.

When Tomlin shocked the sports world by resigning the Monday after the latest playoff exit, the reaction was twofold: surprise that one of the longest-tenured coaches walked away on his own terms, and relief that change was finally coming.

Tomlin’s resignation provided an opportunity for a much-needed reset. The operation had grown stale—you could take it to the bank the team would finish slightly above .500 and lose in the playoffs in non-competitive fashion.

Playoff loss after playoff loss built mounting frustration for everyone who cares about the team. So much so that during a home loss to Buffalo late in the season, fans began chanting to fire a coach who had never had a losing season.

Finally it seemed there would be a catalyst for change. A new coaching staff, possibly filled with young and bright minds seemingly elevating teams across the league to new heights. As much as Tomlin was beloved by players, schematic excellence and strong coordinator hires were never highlights on his résumé.

Young schematic geniuses like Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, and Mike McDonald were becoming the faces of their franchises and elevating them to elite status. The Mike Vrabel type could create an inspired culture while assembling strong staffs. Steelers fans couldn’t help but get excited about the possibilities.

When the interview candidates started trickling out, the thesis was validated. Chris Shula, the fast-rising Rams defensive coordinator. Nathan Scheelhaase, an elite offensive mind under McVay. Brian Flores, who had rebuilt his reputation as Minnesota’s DC. This was still one of the best jobs in the league—a position that comes open once every twenty years.

Everything was lining up. It legitimately seemed as if the path back to contention would start here.

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Mike McCarthy is not a bad coach. He won a Super Bowl in Green Bay and made the playoffs twelve times. He was also fired by two historic franchises—Green Bay and Dallas—for the same reason: failing to win in the playoffs with MVP-caliber quarterbacks.

McCarthy took last year off. Nine of the ten teams with head coaching openings this offseason passed on him. His only confirmed interview was with the Steelers—apparently because he worked with GM Omar Khan in New Orleans twenty-five years ago, and because he grew up in Pittsburgh.

The official announcement of his hiring sent shockwaves through sports circles, and has almost immediately been met with frustration and anger from Steelers fans.

After a decade without a playoff win—frustration and resentment finally boiling over—the Steelers decided to hire a coach who (checks notes) was fired from his last two jobs at historic franchises for being unable to win in the playoffs.

The Steelers could have hired a young architect—someone to tear down the walls and rebuild from the foundation. Instead, they hired a contractor to patch the drywall.

The Steelers apparently have no interest in doing anything but operation business as usual. McCarthy certainly gives them the highest floor in 2026, but at 62 and with a less than inspiring postseason record, how is this hire supposed to meaningfully inspire any confidence the organization is any closer to a Super Bowl than it was when getting blown out in the wild card playoff round by the Houston Texans?

For some reason, despite initial reports the team was “going to take their time with this search” the Steelers rushed to hire McCarthy before they could even speak with the Rams coordinators in person — when literally no other team was interested in McCarthy.

It’s hard to take this as anything other than organizational malpractice and laziness—opting for a safe retread with ties to the city, as if being from Pittsburgh is a qualification for running a football team.

Maybe this was done to convince forty-two-year-old Aaron Rodgers to return for another season. If so, that’s its own problem. Rodgers elevated the Steelers offense this year, but against elite defenses the former MVP looked like Superman plagued with Kryptonite—his signature escapability and arm strength finally surrendering to Father Time.

In what world does it make sense to let your biggest organizational decision be driven by a player who might play one more season? Because it might help them win two more regular season games.

Setting aside best-case scenarios, Rooney, Khan, and everyone running the team had a unique opportunity to re-engineer the direction of the organization. They were let off the hook not having to fire a Hall of Fame coach. Fans would have been rejuvenated by a new voice and perspective, paving a path for the team to climb back to the top of the NFL, even if there were some short-term pain.

Gone are the days of focusing solely on winning Super Bowls. Rooney II, despite his script in press conferences, is running the Pittsburgh Steelers as if they are a low-margin small business. Keep the bottom line in the green (win more games than you lose, make the playoffs), with the lowest possible costs (the Steelers have had some of the smallest staffs in the league, along with the worst-rated facilities).

Photo: NFL.com

I mean we are talking about a franchise that has won as many Super Bowls as any team in the league, but inexplicably still shares a practice facility with a middling ACC collegiate team.

An opportunity to go from just being invited to the table, to sitting at the head of it.

Instead, they took the same course of action they have for the last decade. A low risk, high floor decision — wasting any optimism and excitement generated with the possibility of change back towards that Super Bowl standard.

It also can’t be ignored: a sixty-two-year-old coming off a year on the couch costs less and demands less change than a thirty-five-year-old with a vision. Shula, Scheelhaase, Flores—they would have wanted to rebuild. McCarthy just needs to keep the lights on.

There was a dream of a new innovative voice coming in to revamp the entire coaching paradigm, installing diverse schemes and bringing in young talent, setting up the Steelers to finally rise from purgatory and get back into Super Bowl contention.

But hey, at least he is from Pittsburgh, and worked with the GM twenty years ago.

“The Standard is The Standard.” One of Tomlin’s favorite sayings, plastered everywhere in the building.

Once again Art Rooney II has shown that Standard doesn’t exist any longer.

“The Standard” is now mediocrity.

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Photo: USA Today

I read something long ago, along the lines of “sports fandom isn’t about shared joy; it’s mostly about shared suffering” - and I’ve never been able to get that out of my head.

Surrounding yourself with the fan bases of the final two teams standing as they prepare to face off in the National Championship (while you’re trying to enjoy a relaxing vacation in Miami) — can leave you bitter and vindictive.

It’s pretty obvious in 2025, Indiana University had the best collegiate football team in the country. Despite having less talent on paper than roughly 70 other teams (with an all time low % of players who were 4-5 star recruits coming out of high school) they became the first team in the modern era to win 16 games, lose none, and beat multiple top 10 teams on the road to the school’s first national title in history. Curt Cignetti told us “I win — google me”, then he literally went out and rattled off a 27-2 record and won a title in two years at one of the historically weakest programs of all-time. It’s one of the most incredible and unfathomable Cinderella stories in the history of sports; a script that would be deemed too cliche for a movie.

There is plenty of media discussing the game, framing Indiana’s incredible journey and turnaround in its proper history. Celebrating the incredible achievement and story for a new program at the mountain top.

This is not that.

I am tired of pretending this is all fine and good and special.

Indiana, and their fans specifically, do not deserve this happiness.

Dante — are you crazy? Indiana literally had more losses than any other program before this season. Shouldn’t that amount of losing mean celebrating that they won a national championship?

No. No, we should not be.

Indiana fundamentally broke the equation of sports fandom: a prolonged period of suffering, followed by an adversity filled journey, where they overcome battles and demons and rise to the top.

The goal is to go from the bottom to the top — eventually.

The team is really bad. They undergo some change, and slowly but surely turn their fortunes around and rise to the top, and finally achieve their championship dreams, battling adversity along the way and forging a legacy.

Fans, players, the community get to revel in the fruits of the journey. Pain, heartbreak making the joy and euphoria of victory all the sweeter.

Indiana skipped all that. They quite literally went from awful to complete juggernaut in the span of two years.

Before Curt Cignetti’s hiring in December 2023, Indiana football was college football’s ultimate doormat: the FBS program with the most all-time losses (717 by 2023), a .427 winning percentage overall (.365 in Big Ten play), only two conference titles (1945, 1967), seven final AP rankings in 125+ seasons, and a 3-9 bowl record with no postseason wins since 1991.

The 2000-2023 era was especially dire—102-172 record, just three winning seasons (peak 8-5 in 2019), multiple 0-win conference campaigns, a 28-game skid vs. ranked foes, and institutional neglect prioritizing basketball over football facilities/recruiting. Indiana football was, without a shadow of a doubt, one of the worst programs in division one college football.

So Indiana was historically terrible - and now they’re GREAT. Don’t their fans deserve this after being awful for nearly a century?

No. No matter what any die hard fan will say, the hardest part of being a fan is not when your team is awful. It’s when your team is good — but not quite good enough.

When a team is legitimately terrible, it’s a chore to watch and wholly unenjoyable. However, it becomes much harder to get emotionally invested when said team is terrible.

You never allow yourself the possibility of dreaming because you know your team isn’t very good and is going to lose.

When your team is awful, you emotionally tune out on disappointment. You check out.

There have to be SOME life long Indiana fans, who watched every game and suffered decades of losing and deserve this? You’re telling me there aren’t fans of awful teams?

Sure, I am sure there is a very small cohort who were absolute die-hard Indiana football fans for decades before Curt Cignetti showed up and turned them into “Georgia North”. And I am happy for all 23 of those people.

Back to reality — it was frequently observed how much Indiana dominated attendance during the playoff run. Kudos to them — but their stadium was legitimately empty for Cignetti’s first game (apparently there were ~45,000 people there but see for yourself).

Photo: From X.com (twitter). Apparently this was during warm-ups. I don’t care.

The absurd ticket prices and travel to multiple playoff games goes down a little easier when you have had nearly a century to save.

Indiana fans do not deserve to be experiencing the joy of winning a national championship because they were able to somehow skip the most traumatic part of being a fan.

The shattering climb where your team endures repeated heartbreak and devastation before finally exorcising demons, conquering foes, and reaching the championship peak.

Ask a Buffalo Bills fan if it’s more painful now with crushing playoff loss after playoff loss — or when they were last place in the AFC East getting dunked on by Tom Brady. Seeing Josh Allen fail to exorcise his playoff demons year after year, either losing to Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, or Lamar Jackson; or turning the ball over in the most crucial moments. Failure to finally deliver the championship moment Buffalo fans have been wishing for.

If the Bills, and Allen, do ever overcome their playoff demons. It will have all been worth it, all the pain and suffering will be forged into tears of joy.

An awful team is a tough watch; a really good, almost great one, rips your heart out from your chest and leaves scars for years to come.

Indiana, somehow, completely avoided being pretty good. They were awful. Then they were an absolute juggernaut.

Hell — even the Georgia Bulldogs had to endure some heartbreak (losing in dramatic fashion in overtime of a national championship game) before their own dynastic run.

So yes — Indiana engineered a storybook rise to incredible highs in rapid succession.

But that’s my whole point — they skipped the very part that makes it all worth it.

The thrill of victory is so strong because of the pain of defeat.

Indiana never lost to Ohio State when leading by double digits in consecutive years, forced to sit with the sting of defeat for 364 days.

They never blew leads at home to rival teams costing them a shot at the playoff, watching rival teams fight it out for immortality and their fanbases celebrating.

They never spent a year believing this was finally the team to get them over the top — only to be crushingly disappointed with a loss to a team they should have beat by double digits. Wondering, how did it all go so wrong when we were so close?

Indiana was simply awful. A school and community who had accepted their position as a basketball powerhouse. Then they increased their investment in football, hired a 62 year old who had never been a Power 4 head coach, signed a bunch of experienced players from smaller schools and then proceeded to absolutely steamroll everyone and win a national championship in 24 months.

Photo: Michael Hickey/Getty Images

So congrats on being the first team in over a century to go 16-0. Heisman quarterback, dream season.

My extremely petty and biased self will always mark it with an asterisk because they (the fandom) didn’t earn it.

The only championships that count are the ones raised with scar tissue.

Epilogue:

It’s absolutely ridiculous to say who “deserves” to win a championship and who doesn’t. However, I stand by my thesis and will embrace being petty and biased as the freaking Indiana Hoosiers celebrate a national championship. At least Cignetti is from Pittsburgh.

He could only watch. After Lamar Jackson hit Isaiah Likely for 26 yards on fourth-and-7 to drag the Baltimore Ravens past midfield, the season—and maybe the franchise’s championship window—came down to the leg of a 24-year-old kicker.

Seconds earlier, it felt over. Jackson kept it alive anyway, the way he has for years: one impossible play, one more chance.

Tyler Loop’s 44-yard attempt sailed wide right. On the other sideline, the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrated a division title. Jackson and the Ravens stood still, watching another season end the same way so many of his have: with the margin thin, the stakes enormous, and the result empty.

It didn’t feel like only a season slipping away. It felt like time—and Lamar’s prime—slipping with it.

The myth, especially in the Tom Brady era, is that quarterbacks can play into their 40s and keep the whole thing going. The reality is simpler: even for elite quarterbacks, the number of truly dominant seasons is finite. In two days, Lamar Jackson turns 29.

He’s already built a generational résumé: Heisman winner, two-time NFL MVP, the youngest quarterback to win a unanimous NFL MVP, and the fastest player to reach 5,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards. Drafted at the end of the first round in 2018, Jackson didn’t just become a franchise quarterback—he redefined what one could be, becoming the first QB in league history to post multiple 1,000-yard rushing seasons.

The regular-season success is unquestionable. But in Jackson’s seven seasons, the Ravens have one AFC Championship Game appearance to show for it. They still haven’t reached a Super Bowl in the Lamar era.

Despite record-breaking regular-season numbers, the playoffs have proved a tougher stage for Jackson.

Lamar’s postseason record sits at 3–5. His efficiency drops in January, and the possession-killers pile up—interceptions, fumbles, the kinds of negative plays that decide playoff games. In his lone AFC Championship appearance, against Kansas City after the 2023 season, he threw for 272 yards with one interception in a 17–10 loss. It wasn’t a total no-show. It was something worse: close enough to make it hurt, not clean enough to win.

The story has repeated in different forms. In the 2019 Titans upset, Derrick Henry ran for 195 yards while Baltimore’s defense caved. Other years, the breakdowns have come from dropped opportunities and mistakes around him. The feeling persists anyway. For all his generational talent, Baltimore hasn’t capitalized when the stakes rise and the field shrinks.

And 2025 stings worse because it feels like the type of season contenders are supposed to cash. The AFC has felt as open as it’s been in years. The Ravens still came up empty. The best shot he’s had ended the same way the season ended—pushed wide right.

The urgency isn’t just narrative. It’s physical. What makes Jackson brilliant also makes the window fragile.

The injuries have added up. An ankle injury cost him the final stretch in 2021. A PCL sprain ended his 2022 season and kept him out of the postseason. This year, he missed four games, including a multi-week absence with a hamstring injury, and late-season back and knee issues have visibly complicated the way he wins. The point isn’t that Lamar is no longer elite. It’s that the margin that separates “elite” from “unstoppable” is getting harder to guarantee year after year.

You can see it in the shape of the season: fewer of the effortless, game-breaking runs; less weekly inevitability; more games where he has to be perfect because the rest of the roster can’t afford a single crack. Every hit matters more. Every small limitation changes the math.

And the precedent is unforgiving. Quarterbacks who rely on mobility don’t usually fall off all at once—they lose a half-step, then a second reaction, then the ability to erase mistakes with one play. Cam Newton is the cautionary tale everyone remembers, but the league is full of versions of this story: dynamic quarterbacks whose prime advantage shrank the moment injuries and mileage started stacking.

The roster math is tightening, too. Jackson’s 2026 cap hit is projected to be massive, and even if Baltimore reshapes it, the pressure doesn’t disappear—it shifts. The Ravens will have to make real decisions on who they can keep, who they can extend, and how deep the supporting cast can stay when the quarterback occupies that much of the budget. In a league where depth wins in January, that matters.

Jackson is only 29, and maybe this was just bad luck. But between the injuries, the cap squeeze, and an AFC that’s getting younger and hungrier every season, this might have been their best shot—or at least one of the last “clean” ones where the Ravens could count on having every advantage at once.

Sunday night, the kick sailed wide right. And Jackson might have watched another year of his prime disappear the same way.

40 seconds left in the game. Tie score. A spot in the national championship on the line—a chance to reach the title game for the first time in nearly forty years. Fifty yards, two timeouts, and a single swing of a kicker’s leg stand between you and glory.

The chosen one. The prophecy foretold. The missing link to elevate a starving program and community to greatness.

These are things kids dream about in their backyards. Drew Allar, the quarterback of the Penn State Nittany Lions, had surely played this exact scenario out a thousand times in his backyard—game on the line, the chance to orchestrate the drive of a lifetime.

Everything that had come before—a high-profile recruitment, the turbulence of his first year as a starter, and the steady climb of a strong junior campaign—led to this.

Of course it would happen this way.

With their backs against the wall, Allar would lead the Lions into field goal range. He would provide the walk-off winner. He would secure a rematch with the hated rival Ohio State Buckeyes in the national championship.

The most hyped recruit in a decade—the quarterback who stayed loyal to Franklin when the world came calling—was about to have his “Tom Brady” moment. He would orchestrate a historical moment, then finally slay the hometown team that had overlooked him and deliver a championship.

Dreams are fragile. In sports, they usually end in the dirt.

Allar drops back to pass and lets fly a desperate, ill-advised ball across the middle of the field. In the glare of the stadium lights, the “missing piece” melts. A Notre Dame defender steps in front of the route, snatches the ball out of the air, and silences the Penn State sideline.

Notre Dame converts a field goal shortly after, leaving Head Coach James Franklin, the Penn State community, and the college football world at large in a state of collective shock.

Allar slowly trots to the sideline, hands clamped to his helmet, as if trying to hold his world together. Tears stream down his face—a raw, public outpouring of emotion that continues into his post-game press conference.

“I should’ve just thrown it away…we didn’t win the game, I wasn’t good enough” Allar delivers the standard leadership cliches, his eyes darting from side to side in the post-game press-conference. The quarterback avoids eye contact, looking toward the floor. The weight and expectation of a decade’s worth of promise and disappointment become too much to hold back.

A haunting image. The quarterback, the coach, and one of the most storied programs in the sport, left to ponder the same agonizing questions: What happens now? How did we get here?

The image of Allar walking off the field that night in the Orange Bowl—head in hands, emotion pouring out of him—serves as the defining portrait of an era.

No team provides a more stark examination of the binary of success and failure than Penn State. This was a team who came into this season with legitimate national championship expectations – and ended a decade journey with a fired coach, a mass of players leaving having failed to live up to expectations, and a fanbase forced to reconcile how a program on the precipice collapsed into the pit in a single year.

How did a seemingly perfect path to a storybook ending turn into despair? How did a team, so close to the championship game a year ago, fall into the abyss? Why did the relationship between a 104-win coach and his fanbase fracture so severely? And why did the quarterback, whose potential seemed limitless, end his career in tears?

The story is ultimately one of unfulfilled promise, the weight of expectation, and two men.

Quarterback Drew Allar and Coach James Franklin, two figures whose careers and fates would ultimately be defined by the other.

A plot that seemed plagiarized from a Hollywood script by the end resembled a Greek tragedy. But to understand how Penn State’s most promising team in generations ended in despair, you have to go back further.

Back to where the hope began.

A Miracle Worker

Turning the clock back over a decade, nestled in the hills of central Pennsylvania, Penn State Football was a program existing in the shadow of its own survival. Former NFL coordinator Bill O’Brien had spent two years stabilizing a program spiraling from scandal and tragedy, keeping it above .500 despite crippling sanctions—a feat that felt miraculous given the circumstances.

In December of 2013, O’Brien was ready to return to the NFL after a taxing two years, accepting the Houston Texans head coaching job on New Year’s Eve. Penn State—located in State College, Pennsylvania, a place known as Happy Valley—found itself searching for a leader for the second time in four years—a jarring reality for a program that had previously employed one man for nearly five decades.

Enter: James Franklin.

Franklin arrived in State College branded a ‘miracle worker’ from Vanderbilt, a label he was more than happy to wear. Employing a borderline delusional optimism, dynamic personality, and ability to identify under the radar recruits, Franklin led a historically weak program to consecutive nine-win seasons in the famed South Eastern Conference.

Young, high energy, from Pennsylvania – Franklin embodied the type of leader Penn State desperately required as it found itself in the midst of the ramifications from the scandal. A postseason ban and a decimated scholarship count threatened the program’s very ability to compete. On paper, the fit seemed perfect from all sides; however, the promotion to a bigger job, with more recent success, came with pressure. It’s great to build a Cinderella, but can you do it at the highest level? Franklin succeeded at Vanderbilt—a program where success itself seemed miraculous—but in the cutthroat world of major college football, past performance was only proof of concept, never proof of permanence. At Penn State, he would need to prove it against the best of the best, again. And again. And again.

O’Brien had provided the foundation; Franklin was hired to build the house. Emulating the blueprints of Alabama and Ohio State—the gold standards of the era—Penn State sought a CEO-style leader who could weaponize recruiting and drag the program out of the shadows and back into the national elite. At the time, college football had entered the era of the CEO coach—men like Nick Saban and Urban Meyer who controlled every facet of their programs, from recruiting to game planning to media strategy. Franklin embraced the model completely.

The first two years of the new regime were defined by mediocrity: back-to-back 7-6 finishes in lower-tier bowls that suggested a program treading water. And midway through the 2016 season, Franklin’s pivotal third year, things seemed to be stuck in neutral.

Then, in the span of one October night, the trajectory shifted.

The football gods finally looked toward Happy Valley. Hosting the 2nd ranked and undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes, the Nittany Lions rallied as massive underdogs when defensive back Grant Haley scooped a blocked field goal and sprinted not just into the endzone, but into Penn State lore.

It wasn’t just a touchdown; it was a program-defining exorcism. Franklin and the community would finally have their program defining win after the darkness of the last four years.

Students and fans flooded the field of Beaver Stadium against the backdrop of Penn State’s famed “White Out” night game, to celebrate a win over a top-five titan—a moment that announced the Nittany Lions were ready to ascend. Parlaying that momentum into a division championship, the Lions would end up winning the Big 10 conference in dramatic fashion. Despite being left out of the four team playoff that year, the Lions played in the famous and storied Rose Bowl. Against the horizon of the famed Pasadena background, sun setting into the mountains, Penn State and the Trojans of Southern California staged one of the most entertaining games of the season. In what would become an ominous sign, Franklin and the Nittany Lions lost to USC that night, but all prognostication was pointing up.

The Ohio State win acted as a propellant for Franklin and his program. A coach who was on the hot seat in early October was holding the Big Ten Championship trophy in December. Young, exciting players like Saquon Barkley (a generational talent) and Trace McSorley (a scrappy, underrecruited quarterback) who committed to the program in the middle of the heaviest impact from the sanctions would lead the Lions back to greatness.

The victory along with a Big10 conference championship provided validation for Franklin’s program. His approach had been methodical, bordering on obsessive. Every detail mattered—from recruiting scripts to practice schedules to media talking points. The 2016 breakthrough felt like vindication: his system worked.

What couldn’t be seen yet was the same control that built consistency would eventually suffocate freedom and growth.

In the aftermath of a turning point season, those “Fire Franklin” chants that echoed in the stadium in mid-October seemed far away now.

They would, in time, return.

Always Bridesmaid, Never a Bride

The 2016 season had been written for a Hollywood screenplay; in the rise from the ashes the program would be lifted by heroes who came in the darkest hour. The man hired after drastically outperforming at a historically weak program would bring a national championship back to a storied program, taking his place among the all-time greats.

As in life, College Football reality is messier and more unpleasant than Hollywood films.

The next three seasons established Penn State as one of the strongest programs in the country. Franklin utilized the 2016 momentum, stacking top-tier recruiting classes and wins—31 victories from 2017 through 2019. But the 2016 Ohio State upset that was supposed to launch a dynasty became an apparition. Penn State lost heartbreaking games to the Buckeyes in both 2017 and 2018 by a combined two points. The annual ritual of falling short against elite opponents became a sword hanging over the Franklin era: questionable coaching decisions, physical failures at critical moments, and gut-wrenching ‘what ifs’ that would linger for years.

The pattern was set: Penn State could beat anyone they had more talent than on paper, but they were paralyzed when facing their equals. When the lights were brightest, facing an elite opponent, Penn State lacked the execution or difference making performances to win.

In 2018, Penn State once again found itself on the precipice of greatness – only to fall victim to a coaching miscue in the biggest moment. Trailing by a single point with two timeouts in hand, gunslinger Trace McSorley orchestrated a drive into Buckeye territory. With less than 90 seconds remaining and a timeout, the Lions offense found itself roughly 15 yards from comfortable field goal range. 45 feet was all that separated Franklin from a second win against a top five Ohio State in three years –a victory likely locking up another Big10 Championship game appearance.

Fourth down, possibly the final play, five yards to go. McSorley unexpectedly handed the ball off to running back Miles Sanders who was stuffed immediately.

Roughly 108,000 people fell silent, utterly shocked by the final play call. Ohio State took over, ran out the clock, and walked off the field with another win over Penn State. A pattern becoming a curse.

After the loss, Franklin, caught up in the emotion and frustration of the moment, delivered a post-game press conference that would define the rest of his tenure.

It was here he laid the ultimatum that would determine his legacy and longevity.

"We’ve gone from an average football team to a good football team to a great football team... but we’re not an elite football team yet. We’ve gotten comfortable being great. We will no longer be comfortable being great. We’re going to find a way to take that next step... because we’ve been knocking at the door long enough."

In the immediate wake of the sanctions, mere survival—just being competitive again—had been a triumph. No longer. Penn State, and the man leading the team, would no longer be content to simply bully inferior opponents. The new standard was narrow and unforgiving: wins against the best of the best. The program, the community, and the man in charge were finished with moral victories. They were tired of being “close”.

Success would be defined not just by number of wins, but wins against Ohio State and Michigan. Franklin, and by proxy the fans, wouldn’t be satisfied with just being a “good” coach – he needed to be “elite”.

Seeds of Discontent

Cracks began to form in the marriage between Franklin and Happy Valley long before the October 2025 collapse. Between 2019 and 2021, the program entered a state of gilded stagnation. While an 11-win season in 2019 kept the critics at bay, Franklin’s name became a permanent fixture in rumors for premier openings at USC and Florida State. To the Penn State community—a fanbase that values loyalty as much as yardage—his silence felt like a leverage play, a way to extract more resources without commitment.

The breaking point wasn’t a loss, but a contract. In 2021, coming off a mediocre 7-6 season, Franklin secured a massive 10-year, $75 million contract extension with a staggering buyout if he was ever to be fired without cause. The massive commitment wasn’t just about money—it was about leverage. Franklin and his agent had negotiated a buyout so massive, and the terms so favorable to the coach, it effectively gave him ironclad job security. He’d built the program his way; now he’d ensured no one could take it from him. But in seizing total control, he’d also accepted total responsibility. There would be no excuses left.

Message boards and social media sites lit up with frustration. Franklin’s flirtation with other jobs, his complaints about lacking resources—it all rang hollow without ‘elite’ results to back it up.

The “Fire Franklin” chants of 2016 were replaced by a cold, transactional resentment. He was now a CEO with a massive salary and a “Great” product, but no “Elite” results. The man and his supporters stayed optimistic and persistent, others felt he would always be asking for more – resources, players, staff, money – without delivering his end of the bargain and shopping for his next gig.

Franklin knew that despite financial security, the seat was getting warm. He had the money, the facilities, and the security—but he still didn’t have a championship.

To save the marriage, he needed a difference maker. He needed divine intervention.

He needed a quarterback.

The Prince Who Was Promised

Just 100 miles from Columbus, shrouded by the overbearing shadow of Ohio State, lies the birthplace of Drew Allar. Initially overlooked by the hometown juggernaut as a mid-tier prospect, Allar spent the COVID pandemic transforming himself into a phenomenon. In less than two years, he charted a meteoric rise from a forgotten three-star recruit to the No. 1 quarterback in the nation.

For Franklin and Penn State, Allar was the missing evolutionary link. The Nittany Lions had won plenty of games with gritty overachievers like Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford, but they had never possessed a true “unicorn”—a prototype field general capable of going blow-for-blow with the NFL talent at Ohio State. Allar was that dream. Standing 6’5” with a rocket arm, he was straight out of central casting. The comparisons to Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen were immediate and intoxicating; the kid from Medina possessed the physical traits that made scouts salivate and social media accounts explode.

The true victory for Franklin and his staff wasn’t just securing his talent; it was Allar’s loyalty. When Ohio State finally panicked and offered him a scholarship late in the recruiting cycle, the quarterback didn’t flinch. He rejected his childhood dream school to stay with the coach who believed in him before anyone else.

When asked why he turned down Ohio State, Allar was diplomatic but firm:

“’I have a great amount of respect for the Ohio State coaches and their program, but I just didn’t feel like it would be the best fit for me, personally. I feel like Penn State is a better fit for me.’”

Before he ever took a snap, Drew Allar had already delivered Franklin a win over the Buckeyes.

Finally, the Nittany Lions would have the elite quarterback required to be the difference-maker in the biggest games. The 2022 recruiting class, led by Allar, offered the newly extended Franklin the firepower to finally clear the hurdle that had defined his career.

Allar’s commitment was a line of demarcation for Franklin and the Nittany Lions.

The future, for both the program and the man in charge, would be tied to the success of their prized recruit from Central Ohio.

A Glimpse of Potential

Penn State fans wouldn’t have to wait long for a glimpse of their dream. An appetizer arrived on a humid Thursday night in West Lafayette, Indiana, midway through the 2022 season opener against Purdue. When veteran starter Sean Clifford retreated to the locker room with an injury, the “Allar Era” began not with a gradual introduction, but with a sudden, high-stakes thrust into a hostile environment.

Allar navigated the pocket with a surgical, statuesque calm.

On the first meaningful drive of his collegiate career, the eighteen year old avoided the chaos of the Purdue pass rush with the poise of a fifth-year senior. Then came the throw that would provide an allegory for the next three years of Penn State football.

Dropping back in shotgun formation, navigating the collapsing pocket, Allar effortlessly lofted a ball downfield. With a flick of the wrist that looked almost indifferent, he lofted a twenty-five-yard crescent through the Indiana night. The ball tracked a perfect, smooth arc, clearing the fingertips of an outstretched linebacker and splitting a pair of lurking safeties to find tight end Tyler Warren in a window that shouldn’t have existed.

The pass hit Warren’s hands and fell to the turf—an incompletion that was entirely irrelevant. The stadium, and the thousands watching on national television, had seen a unicorn.

It was a pro throw, a physical manifestation of the “Elite” standard Franklin had promised years earlier. The fact that the drive eventually stalled at midfield, and Allar’s next pass was wildly incomplete, mattered less than a glimpse of the potential: if a true freshman could manipulate a defense and make a throw like that, what would the finished product look like?

For a fanbase that had grown weary of game managers like Clifford and McSorley, that single incompletion was more intoxicating than a decade of safe completions. It was the lightning bolt of hope and promise that would sustain James Franklin’s credit with the community for the next thirty-sixth months.

Growing Pains

By 2022, Penn State had become firmly entrenched in the upper-middle class of college football. An eleven-win season capped by a Rose Bowl victory provided a glossy finish, but the sheen was deceptive. Once again, the Nittany Lions had surrendered second-half leads to Ohio State and Michigan. The victories were enjoyable and consistent, but the losses felt defining. Hope remained an intoxicating drug; the optimistic part of the fanbase convinced itself that Allar, after a year of seasoning behind the veteran Clifford, was the missing ingredient required to finally reach the summit.

The following year proved that hope, while intoxicating, is often a cruel mistress.

Allar’s first season as the starter was characterized not by the “pedal to the metal” aggression fans craved, but by a program stuck in neutral. While Allar set records for consecutive passes without an interception, the milestone felt more like a condemnation. On the surface, sure, the offense looked efficient and avoided turnovers. However, those watching closely saw a unit and a quarterback who looked timid, out of sync, and paralyzed in the biggest moments.

The pivot points the community expected never arrived. Against the measuring-stick defenses of Michigan and Ohio State, the unit looked less like a national contender and more like a mid-major program overwhelmed by the moment. Allar finished the year with an astounding 25-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, yet his shallow yards-per-attempt told the real story: a Ferrari being driven like a minivan. A horrific performance in the Peach Bowl against Ole Miss turned whispers of doubt into a roar.

The question that haunted Happy Valley was whether Allar was playing scared, or being coached into submission. Franklin’s offensive coordinators had built a system designed to minimize errors, not maximize explosiveness. For a quarterback with Allar’s arm talent, the scheme felt like a cage. He wasn’t learning to process chaos and make off-script magic; he was checking down to safe, short throws and avoiding mistakes. In big games, when the conservative script was exposed, Allar had no improvisation or aggressive muscle memory to fall back on.

Franklin had protected his quarterback from failure—and in doing so, prevented him from developing the scar tissue elite quarterbacks need.

That pattern ingrained in the program’s reputation; Penn State shrinking in the biggest moments. Multiple blown leads against Ohio State. An offense that went conservative when aggression was needed. Had Franklin’s vice-like grip on every aspect of the program stifled the creativity and freedom required to win championship games? After almost eight years, the Lions were always on the wrong side of the big play.

Franklin’s response to media questions about his tactics rarely satisfied—always some version of (paraphrasing) “Obviously, we will look to evaluate everything and get it fixed." The questions had no easy answers. Was it coaching? Player development? Or was Franklin simply a great builder without the killer instinct to finish?

The flip side over having total control of a program is that when it goes well you can earn a $75mm contract. When it goes badly, there is really no one else to blame. The proverbial monkey on the back of big game failures would follow Franklin until he finally won one.

The season leading up to that Orange Bowl game against Notre Dame, as the Nittany Lions prepared for their first true playoff run—highlighted by a grit-and-grind overtime win at USC and a bruising encounter with Oregon—the old ghosts remained.

Penn State was at the table – thanks to an expanded twelve team playoff field – but the team, and Allar himself, didn’t look like they belonged at the head of it.

By the time Penn State reached the Semifinal Orange Bowl, Franklin and Allar were trapped in a cage of their own making.

Franklin’s need for control and fear of upsetting the consistent standard had created a risk-averse culture. A conservative philosophy had been coded into his quarterbacks’ decision-making. His coordinator choices, and the staff at large, had prevented Allar from developing the improvisational skills and aggressive mindset elite quarterbacks need. And beneath it all, Franklin’s need for validation meant he could never simply coach the game in front of him; he was always coaching against the criticism, the doubt, the ‘not elite’ label.

When the moment arrived—40 seconds, tie game, championship on the line—Allar was asked to do something Franklin’s program had never equipped him for: abandon the script and trust chaos.

The interception wasn’t just a bad throw. It was the inevitable result of a philosophy that had brought them 99% of the way to the summit, but could never carry them to the final step. When the ball left Allar’s hand, ten years of questions were answered.

A Shot at Redemption

It’s easy to look back now and point to the heartbreak in Miami as the moment the dream died—the moment the promise of James Franklin leading Penn State to a championship on the back of a prolific quarterback finally evaporated. That is the portrait history will likely draw; history rarely has time for nuance. But the reality was more complicated. The Nittany Lions actually returned the majority of their starters in 2025, led by Allar, who turned down the NFL Draft for one final run.

The “unfinished business” angle was espoused hard.

Even before the season began, however, something seemed amiss. Franklin’s pre-season comments carried an edge that betrayed something festering beneath the surface. ‘Most programs would be envious of the success we’ve had here,’ he said, repeatedly.

The man who’d once preached 1-0 mentality—focus only on the next game—was now looking backward, cataloging achievements, seemingly exhausted by the burden of never being enough. The community had given him time, resources, and a $75 million contract. But they hadn’t given him what he truly wanted: recognition as an elite coach. And in college football’s binary world, “very good” was just another word for “not good enough”.

Penn State stumbled to a rocky 3-0 start against inferior opponents. Allar did not look like the senior leader or projected top draft pick who was supposed to “take the next step” with a new trio of transfer receivers. Nittany Nation collectively held its breath, but the cracks in the facade were impossible to ignore. The weight of a decade of expectation and promise seemingly formed an anvil over the head of the coach and his quarterback.

Allar had entered his senior season as a projected first-round pick, but failed to look the part. Three years in various systems had made him efficient but not dynamic. The transfer receivers Franklin brought in—supposedly the missing pieces—only highlighted the problem: Allar had the weapons, but couldn’t make the most of them. Perhaps, after three years of being taught to avoid mistakes above all else, he’d internalized the fear so completely that freedom wouldn’t have mattered. The freedom and aggressiveness he showed at Medina High, neutered by the pressure of being labeled a “savior” for not just thousands in a stadium, but an entire fanbase.

A kid who had a thousand watt smile and rosy cheeks when he arrived in State College now looked exasperated; weighed down by the eyes of the college football world expecting a championship run and a Heisman trophy.

The Nittany Lions heartbreak would not have to wait until Ohio State this time.

The End

Everything had built to this: early October, primetime, 107,000 fans packed into Beaver Stadium’s famed White Out to watch two undefeated teams. Penn State versus Oregon—a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship loss. A chance at redemption.

For three quarters, doubt crept through the stadium like fog. Allar struggled to find rhythm, frequently sprinting to the sideline in frustration. Franklin battled with officials, unleashing a decade’s worth of pent-up anger. When a fumble return touchdown was overturned—a blade of grass the difference between euphoria and dread—the entire stadium seemed to collectively recognize the moment. They’d been here before.

Then the fourth quarter arrived, and hope returned. Trailing by multiple scores, Allar suddenly came alive. Forced to abandon caution by desperation, he threaded passes through the autumn night, rallying the Lions to tie the game with thirty seconds left. Overtime.

Penn State struck first, a bruising touchdown drive that felt like the entire community willing the ball forward. Up seven, they needed one stop. One play to exorcise a decade of demons. One play to prove they were finally different.

Oregon converted on fourth down to tie it. Double overtime. Penn State’s ball again. Allar had forty seconds in Miami; now the clock was irrelevant. Just get the ball into the endzone.

He dropped back and forced a throw into triple coverage. The Oregon safety stepped in front—the same setup, the same mistake. The interception floated into the opposing safety’s hands. Game over.

Allar collapsed to the turf, staring into nothing. Franklin stood frozen, the thousand-yard stare of a man who’d just watched his fate sealed. There were eight games left on the schedule, but the looks on their faces told the story.

The dream was over. Everything that followed would just be the aftermath.

The Oregon loss resulted in a psychic fracture within the team. The following week, the Lions collapsed against a winless UCLA squad on the road, then followed it up with a loss to a sub-.500 Northwestern team at home.

The football gods are cruel writers, particularly around endings.

Midway through the Northwestern game, Drew Allar fell to the grass with a twisted ankle. The quarterback who had been delivered to Penn State with the pressure of driving a program to new heights, carted off the field with tears once again streaming down his face. After the game, Franklin announced the inevitable: the quarterback’s season, and Drew’s college career, were over.

Frustration erupted down upon the man who had been greeted as a savior ten years prior. The “Fire Franklin” chants that had echoed through Beaver Stadium in October 2016 returned, louder and more certain. They’d been temporarily silenced by hope. Hope that with an elite quarterback, surrounded by more blue chip talent, Franklin’s program would finally reach that “elite” standard he set after the second consecutive loss to Ohio State in 2018. That hope had finally run out.

Franklin was fired less than twenty-four hours after the loss. The $50 million buyout and the remaining term of his contract be damned. There would be no saviors. There would be no happy endings in Happy Valley for the coach or his quarterback.

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New Chapters and Fresh Starts

Time heals all wounds, and history will likely be kind to the legacy of James Franklin and Drew Allar. Allar ends his career as the program’s all-time leader in completion percentage. He won more games in a single season than any other signal-caller in Nittany Lion history. Despite his season-ending injury, the quarterback remained a fixture on the sidelines, helping his backup guide the team to a 4-3 finish. His NFL story has yet to be written.

For Allar, the ending was particularly cruel. Four years of carrying expectations that would have broken most 18-year-olds, and what does he have to show for it? Program records that feel hollow, a college career that ended on a cart, and the knowledge that he’ll forever be the ‘what if’ quarterback in Penn State lore. The kid who rejected Ohio State to stay loyal, who returned for his senior year when he could have left for the NFL, who did everything asked of him—and still couldn’t deliver the moment everyone dreamed of. That’s the weight he’ll carry into the League.

Emotions remain tense—a consequence of Franklin immediately hitting the national television circuit to espouse a desire to coach elsewhere, yet refusing to issue any genuine sentiment of gratitude towards Penn State and the community. It didn’t help matters that a few weeks later, Franklin and his new staff lured the majority of the 2026 signing class with him to Virginia Tech.

Regardless, History will reflect positively on the coach. Franklin took a program that was barely surviving and turned it into a perennial Top 10 mainstay. Penn State won nearly every New Year’s Six bowl game under his watch and won multiple playoff games for the first time in school history. He leaves for Blacksburg with 104 wins—tied for second-most in program history—having won nearly 70% of his games. The fracture between Franklin and the fanbase, the transactional nature and mutual feelings of lack of appreciation, only would have been resolved with a championship.

As Penn State turns the calendar to 2026, it is forced to reckon with what could have been. Before the program can begin a new era with a new coach in Matt Campbell, it needed a final chapter for the coach and quarterback who were supposed to lift the program to the summit.

In the end, it was fitting that Franklin’s tenure ended alongside Allar’s. Both arrived in Happy Valley carrying the weight of immense promise; both accomplished great things. However, since that ‘Great to Elite’ declaration, it would not be enough for either man to simply win more than they lost. They needed to win the biggest battles. Now both start new chapters, a cloud of “how did it all go so wrong” hanging over their legacies.

In 2026, all parties receive a fresh start—Franklin in Blacksburg, Allar in the NFL, and Penn State with Campbell. The marriage had become a cycle of anger, frustration, and disappointment. It had to end.

There is a saying I heard once:

“If you can sell hope, you can usually keep working. When you run out of hope, you get run out of town.”

Ultimately, the story of Franklin and Allar is one of two fates intertwined. They needed each other to reach the mountaintop, and they came agonizingly close to the peak. But despite the achievements along the way, time simply ran out.

Hope had run out.

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Acquired, hosted by former venture capitalists Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal, is one of the most popular podcasts in the business niche. Leveraging their natural chemistry and expertise, Ben and David publish exhaustive deep dives, weaving the history of an enterprise from its inception to the present day.

The episodes routinely exceed four hours and occasionally span multiple parts. Alongside David Senra’s Founders, Acquired has become a global benchmark for business media. In the last eighteen months alone, they have interviewed Daniel Ek, Jensen Huang, and Mark Zuckerberg, and hosted Jamie Dimon for a live event at Radio City Music Hall.

This preamble is necessary to establish the show’s immense popularity and its staggering reach across business and technology.

Though I am not a routine listener, I tuned in when I saw the famed author Michael Lewis was interviewing Ben and David for the show’s tenth anniversary. Through Lewis’s skills, I gleaned fascinating insights into the creative process of building a brand and product.

What initially blew me away was the amount of iteration the show endured before it achieved the level of notoriety required to interview the creator of Facebook in a live arena. The hosts knew they wanted to explore their love of business, but the exact execution took several forms.

When the show first gained moderate traction, they maintained a higher cadence of shorter, shallower episodes. While the metrics were appealing, the hosts were savvy enough to realize this was drifting away from their core mission. The increased cadence left less time for research, and the quality of the end product dropped.

The subject matter also shifted. Initially, the focus was strictly on companies that had been successfully acquired. Later, in an attempt to be topical and chase immediate listeners, they covered younger institutions that lacked the history to sustain a deep narrative. They even experimented with formats like “Taylor Swift,” covering the business model of her career. All of this occurred while the show was already considered “successful” by normal metrics.

Ultimately, I find it fascinating that both hosts were willing to experiment with format and focus to find the perfect fit. They didn’t abandon the show when it failed to generate income for three years—far past the point most creators would quit. They didn’t rebrand the core concept when certain episodes failed to resonate the way they hoped.

Instead, they used feedback to iterate. They didn’t start a different show or retreat to venture capital; they stayed until they found the perfect alchemy of cadence and structure.

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They realized that while interviews created spikes in listeners, those audiences rarely subscribed. Instead of abandoning interviews, they pivoted to a live-event format to supplement the show rather than define it. They understood that while the news cycle drives listeners today, it does nothing to create a timeless archive. A company dominating the headlines today could be irrelevant in five years. Ben and David aren’t interested in the temporary; they were building a foundational cohort of listeners who valued deep, four-hour deep dives.

By watching the market, they discovered their focus: historic companies with intricate backstories. They moved toward creating “audio documentaries” rather than a weekly news show. They weren’t trying to make another 60-minute tech podcast; they wanted to create the definitive, timeless history of business.

Why did this jump out to me? Every day we are inundated with the demand for “more” and “new.” We are encouraged to start fast and pivot quicker. I have been guilty of this myself: if something doesn’t work immediately, I stop trying. If I don’t get the response I want, I rebrand or start something else.

It is rare that a breakthrough comes right away. More often, it comes from sticking with a project and being willing to experiment until it gets just a little closer to what you want. Then doing that again. And again. And again.

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Ben and David didn’t pivot to the “hot” names in tech when growth plateaued. They didn’t launch a crypto show at the height of the bubble. They stuck to the core idea: two people researching historic companies and publishing long-form deep dives.

The lesson isn’t just about persistence; it’s about choosing to iterate and adapt over a full pivot when things get difficult.

In a world that tells us to “fail fast,” Ben and David chose to “fail slowly”—iterating within their niche until the market finally caught up to their vision. They didn’t change the show to find an audience; they refined the show until it became the only place that audience could go.

Why compete with a hundred average, short-form shows when you can be the best long-form deep dive show in the industry?

Identify the core mission. Iterate and adapt relentlessly. Don’t chase short-term wins or the direction others are pushing you if it deviates from the main thing.

That’s how you end up with Michael Lewis interviewing you about your own show.