To get ready for the NFL season, I decided to do some quick thoughts on every team. No fancy graphics or analysis this time, just got old fashioned thoughts and updates where we stand heading into start of a new year in a few days.
What better place to start than my favorite division, where I think there are two legitimate conference champion candidates (if things go right), a team finally getting a refresh but still poised to be mediocre, and a literal train rumbling off the tracks on fire.
From my anticipated worst to best…(over unders pulled from the interweb).
Cleveland Browns - O/U 5.5-6.5 Wins
The Browns made the worst trade in professional sports history four years ago, giving up six draft picks (three of which were firsts) and handing out a $230m fully guaranteed deal to land embroiled quarterback Deshaun Watson from the Houston Texans. Not even getting into the off the field issues with the trade (which are heinous and awful and show a serious lack of judgement from everyone involved with the Browns), but the on field results have been abysmal.
Watson has only played 19 games in four years after another shoulder injury and tearing his achilles twice (once was a re-tear in the offseason)—but when he has played he has been quite bad, averaging 177 yards per game and well below replacement level metrics across the board.
The only time Watson has been cheered in Cleveland was the last time he was on the field, and tore said achilles. This has all culminated in the QB responding to recent antagonism from home fans by basically telling HIS OWN FANBASE to screw off [paraphrasing, but barely]. So how did the Browns respond? By naming him the starting quarterback besides drafting two QBs last year in Shedeur Sanders and Dillion Gabriel.
To make things worse, the Browns decided to torture their fans even more by trading the best player in the franchise’s history since Jim Brown. Future first ballot Hall of Famer and Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett forced his way via trade to Super Bowl favorite LA Rams. The Browns have a nice group of young players, have restocked draft capital and assets via the Garrett trade—but nothing overshadows the Watson debacle, and the putrid vibes ownership and management have created. The Watson trade has put a dark cloud over new head coach Todd Monken’s first season (coming over after being the OC in Baltimore last season). I do not understand why they spent a third round pick on Dillon Gabriel last year only to never consider him a realistic option to play or develop. I like Fannin (their young tight end), and a staple of wide receivers (rookies KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston). Jared Verse was a solid get in the Garrett trade. Again, there is young talent here, but unfortunately ownership and management decided to double down on one of the worst sports decisions of all time instead of cutting their losses.
Shedeur Sanders will likely play after a few weeks, but the Browns season will be more about getting everyone involved in this mess out of town and starting fresh with a chance at the top quarterback prospect in the draft this spring, and restarting once again.
Pittsburgh Steelers - O/U 8.5 Wins
What more can I really say here that I haven’t already.
After nearly two decades, and two Super Bowl appearances (and one win), Mike Tomlin stepped down after a decade without a playoff win. The Steelers more so than any other team represent the purgatory of mediocrity in the NFL. Mike McCarthy is the new coach, reuniting with his ol’ Green Bay QB in Aaron Rodgers for one last ride, but the Steelers figure to be right where they’ve been.
Not bad enough to land premium capital to acquire franchise type talents at the top of the draft, but not good enough to compete with the upper echelon of teams.
The Steelers will likely go 9-8, be in the wild card hunt and probably lose to the elite AFC teams. Rodgers, a maturing offensive line, and the addition of Michael Pittman Jr should keep the offense slightly above average.
On defense the Steelers have difference makers in TJ Watt, Cam Heyward and maybe Joey Porter Jr (if the contract dispute resolves itself) but overall it figures to be another wilderness year for what was once the most storied franchise in the NFL.
The fact that the entire offseason was spent debating about the third or fourth string QB tells you everything you need to know about where we are in Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati Bengals O/U 9.5-10.5 Wins
The Bengals on paper always seem to be better than they end up being in reality.
A lot of that is attributable to Joe Burrow injuries over the years, and truly awful defensive play.
The fact remains that despite a Super Bowl appearance and an AFC Championship Game loss in 2021 and 2022 the Bengals have largely underachieved under Zac Taylor.
The only thing saving his job has been the Burrow health excuse, but a .453 winning percentage is not going to get it done anymore.
The Bengals are coming off three consecutive seasons in which they missed the playoffs, and with Taylor in the last year of his contract it’s a make or break year in Cincy.
Despite the loss of defensive linemen Trey Hendrickson, the effort to boost the defense was there, acquiring Dexter Lawerence from the Giants for the 10th overall pick at the draft.
The offense is loaded once again with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown all providing explosive plays around Burrow, but ultimately their health will determine how far the Bengals go.
Can Al Golden’s defense rebound from finishing toward the bottom of the league in points given up last year? A favorable November and December schedule sets them up well, but they’ll need to keep themselves in the race long enough for it to matter. I don’t think this team is good enough on defense to be a true contender but they will likely make the playoffs.
How early they get eliminated will determine Taylor’s job, and the conversation we need to have about Joe Burrow.
Baltimore Ravens - O/U 11.5 Wins
The Ravens have quarterback Lamar Jackson, one of the top five quarterbacks in the sport.
If the Incredible Hulk played football, he would be Raven’s running back Derrick Henry - an impossible force of mass and power unable to be brought down by a single defender.
Linebacker Roquan Smith and Safety Kyle Hamilton are two of the best at their positions.
After the weird/strange/fake/fumbled Maxx Crosby trade, the Ravens somehow pivoted and landed elite defensive lineman from a division rival in Trey Hendrickson.
The Ravens moved on from Jim Harbaugh as things had clearly gotten stale, and hired one of the brightest young minds in football in Jesse Minter.
They locked down receiver Zay flowers.
They have Mark Andrews at tight end who remains a matchup nightmare.
All the above is incredibly positive.
Yet it still feels like the Ravens missed their best shot in a Super Bowl window.
For whatever reason this team every year is set up to be the no brainer best in the division and be right up there with Buffalo and Kansas City, but in December and January can never put it together. Now, under the weight of Jackson’s massive contract, Baltimore has had to let go of several productive veterans on both sides of the ball. Baltimore should win the AFC North (comfortably). They should be one of the legitimate AFC contenders to make the Super Bowl. But a new coaching staff, another new offensive coordinator, lack of perimeter receiving options and Jackson’s inconsistencies make me skeptical this is the year the Ravens finally are different.
They will be very good, but have to think they missed a few better opportunities over the last few years to make a run in the AFC.