To get ready for the NFL season, I decided to do some quick thoughts on every team. No fancy graphics or analysis this time, just got old fashioned thoughts and updates, about where we stand heading into start of a new year in a few days.
We’ve done the AFC North and AFC East , now lets dive into the AFC South…a group with one team I really like and then…three other teams.
Tennessee Titans - O/U 6.5 Wins
Everything about the Titans will revolve around the development of last year’s first overall pick, Cam Ward. Ward started all 17 games last year, and didn’t have much help but was put up respectable passing numbers with 15/7 TD to INTs and an ~80 QB rating. Horrific protection up front and ball security issues plagued the offense and its no surprise the Titans moved from from Brian Callahan and Mike McCoy (interim) after going 3-14.
In comes former Jets coach Robert Saleh, and while I would have preferred an offensive minded head coach to support the young franchise QB, I like the hire of former Giants HC and Bills OC Brian Daboll as the offensive coordinator. Daboll was mixed as a head coach, but he’s proven his offensive development acumen and I am excited to see if he can help Ward take the next step in his development. Saleh and Gus Bradley will hopefully turn around the defense, which has legitimate talent in the defensive front that with Jeffrey Simmons and John Franklin-Myers, but the secondary and linebacking core needs some more depth and talent. Saleh’s defensive knowledge lifting up an average defense talent wise, and if Calvin Ridley, Wandale Robinson, and rookie Carnell Tate can emerge as weapons for Ward, if the defense can be merely competent the Titans should take a step in the right direction. Alas, the Titans are probably still going to be in the Top 10 pick discussion around draft time.
Indianapolis Colts - O/U 7.5 Wins
I really like Shane Steichen as a head coach. I think the Colts bigger issues have been related to general manager Chris Ballard, then anything coaching related. The trade up for Anthony Richardson in 2023 now looks like a colossal swing and a miss.
I support taking a swing to get a franchise guy, but you really have to have confidence that it is going to work out, because not many regimes survive taking a QB top five and having him be a bust. Richardson has struggled with health post his rookie year, but when he has played has showed no evidence he can adapt to the NFL. Taking a big swing on athletic guy with tools in college who had major red flags and only started 13 games was a big gamble that reeks of poor process, and I am suspect Ballard will survive much longer in Indy.
The Daniel Jones acquisition looked like good business, but signing him to a two year deal after an achilles injury seems like another big roll of the dice for a guy who has been inconsistent in the NFL. And then the Colts traded TWO first round picks to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. This is all to say the Colts player acquisition strategy seems to be run by a guy who is trying to save his job, rather than making logical moves for the long term success of the team.
Alas, the Colts seem to be stuck in the bottom-middle of the NFL.
If Jones is fully recovered from the injury, the offense should be able to lean on the offensive line and Jonathan Taylor in the running game, and Tyler Warren as a reliable receiving weapon. Letting Michael Pittman Jr leave will hurt the outside passing game, and I am not sure Keenan Allen, Alec Pierce, and and Josh Downs are enough of weapons. Ward and Gardner give the Colts to shutdown corners, but I don’t see many other difference makers on the defense aside from a healthy DeForest Buckner. If Jones is fully healthy, and the running game is elite the Colts could be a sneaky wild card team, but I think this will be another sub .500 season and the Colts fire Ballard at year end.
Jacksonville Jaguars - O/U 8.5 Wins
Coming out of Clemson, QB Trevor Lawerence had been deemed the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, he showed flashes, but really hadn’t shown at the NFL level he could be elite.
Things might be changing for TLaw. It started rough, but down the stretch last year new coach Liam Cohen seemed to unlock something in Lawerence, powering the Jags to eight straight wins, and Lawerence to a fifth place finish in MVP voting. Acquiring reciever Jakobi Meyers at the deadline proved to be a catalyst, and along with Brian Thomas and Parker Washington this Jags receiving core is really strong. The defense doesn’t have a lot of big names aside from Travis Hunter (who is now a full-time cornerback) but they were quietly one of the best units in the league last year, and powered them to a 13-4 record.
Jacksonville really should have beaten Buffalo in the wild card game, and if a running back can emerge and the offensive line (which has been an issue) stabilizes, the Jags could be an under the radar contender in the conference. I like their offense a lot, and if Lawerence takes a step, this group could challenge the next team for the South crown.
Houston Texans - 0/U 9.5 Wins
We saw it down the stretch last year, but the Texans defense might be the best in the AFC, and has a chance to be the best in the league.
The Texans D ranked second in scoring defense last year, led by game-breaker Will Anderson Jr. Anderson had 12 sacks, 85 pressures, and 20 tackles for loss last year. Derrick Stingley Jr is an elite shutdown corner, coming off back to back first team all-pro selections. The secondary is deep and talented, and they have elite edge rush pressure. DeMeco Ryans is an elite defensive coach, and this team has young talent across the board.
The biggest factor for the Texans is quarterback C.J. Stroud, who shined as a rookie but has not come close to reaching that form again the last two years. Stroud struggled mightily in the Texans playoff loss to the Patriots (a game had he not turned the ball over four times the Texans likely would have won), but if the fourth year QB can merely drive the car, use the talent around him and not lose games for the Texans, Houston will likely be the best team in the AFC South.
On the more optimistic front, if Stroud can get back to his rookie form, and showcase the talent and upside that made the Texans draft him 2nd overall in 2023, and certify himself as the franchise QB, the Texans are a serious contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. At a minimum their defense should be so strong, that barring any serious injuries this group will likely be the best in the conference and keep them in the mix come playoff time.