To get ready for the NFL season, I decided to do some quick thoughts on every team. No fancy graphics or analysis this time, just got old fashioned thoughts and updates where we stand heading into start of a new year in a few days.
We’ve done the AFC North , AFC East, and AFC South. Now, what I think might be the best overall division in the AFC, even with the Raiders in it.
Las Vegas Raiders - O/U 5.5 Wins
The Raiders have, what they hope, is the most important part of a rebuild—drafting Heisman and National Championship winner Fernando Mendoza first overall at the top of this years draft. Mendoza likely will see some playing time this year, but bringing in Kirk Cousins to start and take the lumps is probably best for Mendoza’s long term outlook and development. The Raiders have stocked some exciting young pieces on offense, Ashton Jeanty at running back and Brock Bowers at tight end seem like young stars, but this team needs so much talent across the rest of the roster it is going to be another challenging year. New Coach Klint Kubiak, fresh off a Super Bowl win as Seattle’s OC should help with the offensive development, but putting a first time head coach in this situation isn’t ideal. The Raiders face one of the leagues more difficult schedules (their own division is brutal, and also play the NFC West) so success this year looks more about meaningful development for their key young players, and getting the offense anywhere above last place in the league. Getting Kolton Miller healthy is huge, and acquiring Tyler Linderbaum in free agency will improve the offensive line, and open up holes for Jeanty. Bowers figures to be the main passing target for Cousins/Mendoza, as the Raiders will be praying Jeremiah Smith is available to them in the draft as their receivers are challenging Miami for the most depressing. Maxx Crosby is weirdly enough, still a Raider, but is truly the only bright spot on this defense that overachieved last year and lost coordinator Patrick Graham to Pittsburgh. I could list a bunch of names of guys on defense, but really outside of Crosby its just a bunch of names. The Raiders are going to struggle this year, but if Jeanty, Bowers, and possibly Mendoza show any signs of development and growth and stay healthy that will be a good year in Vegas. This team needs more talent everywhere, and will be in the top five pick conversation and likely taking the best non-quarterback available (either Jeremiah Smith or the best defensive player if Smith is off the board).
Kansas City Chiefs - 0/U 10.5 Wins
It feels crazy to have the Chiefs at third in the AFC West, but there is a realistic possibility the division could produce three playoff teams. Is the Chiefs dynasty done? Or was last years 6-11 just an unfortunate interval in another chapter in the empiric run. It’s odd to feel like we’ve now reached a point where Mahomes is underrated but it feels that way coming off his injury in Week 15 last year tearing his ACL/LCL. Mahomes is ready to start the season, but his mobility is such a massive part of his greatness, the last few years has been necessary as the Chiefs line and lack of receiving talent has forced Mahomes to create more with his legs, that any impact to his mobility will be a concern. The Chiefs signed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker to help boost the run game, and on paper the WR trip of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Tyquan Thorton seems explosive—but the lines ability to protect Mahomes and those wideouts ability to get open will determine if the Chiefs offense can still keep up with the elite teams in the NFL. The defense once again figures to be solid, and they used the #6 overall pick on CB Mansoor Delane tasked with replacing Trent McDuffie. Can Chris Jones still be the interior disrupter at 32? Long time defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has proven his ability to develop a cohesive unit better than the some of its parts, but I am not sure if the offense takes a step back if this group is good enough to make up the difference, especially given the other teams in this division. Is it over for Kansas City? Time comes for all great teams. But one has to feel Mahomes, Kelce, and Andy Reid have a few more good shots left in them before its all said and done.
Denver Broncos - O/U 9.5 Wins
The Broncos finished last year atop the AFC in the regular season, and had a snowstorm not engulfed Denver in the second half could have been representing the conference in the Super Bowl. Had Bo Nix not broken his ankle on the final play of the divisional round, its fair to wonder if Denver would have handled the Patriots fairly easily. The Broncos once again should be one of the conferences better teams, but I do feel like it will be hard to replicate the results from last year, mostly due to a tougher schedule and how may one-score wins they had last year. Their early schedule has the Rams, 49ers, Charges and defending Super Bowl champion rams. Bo Nix is healthy, but if Denver is going to consistently compete for the AFC crown Sean Payton will need him to become more than a game manager that relies on an elite defense. The acquisition of Jaylen Waddle should help with that, giving the third year QB a legitimate outside weapon along with Cam Sutton. Denver’s defense really should be the strength of their team again, as Vance Joseph’s group was one of the best last year. The key to Broncos defensive strength last year was stopping the run, as they proved to be one of the best of league, and were top five in points allowed. If the group can continue to generate sacks at an impressive rate, and generate slightly more turnovers than they did last year, this group can challenge the Texans as the best in the AFC. Pat Surtain may be the best corner in the NFL. It still feels like before we can consider the Broncos a true contender, Bo Nix needs to become a reason why Denver wins games and not just why they didn’t lose them. Broncos defense is too good to have them out of the playoffs, but I think some defensive regression and a tougher schedule bump them down to a wild card team instead of toward the top of the conference.
Los Angeles Charges - O/U 9.5 Wins
This feels out of consensus, and maybe the NFL media circuit is getting to me, but I feel like the Chargers are poised for a breakout year. We have been saying this about Justin Herbert for years, but with the hiring of Mike McDaniel, and smart drafting the last few years, Herbert is poised for a massive year. Herbert was sacked and pressured more than anyone in the league last year, which has attributed to his injuries the last few years. The offensive line is poised for improvement, mainly attributable to both tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater being healthy after missing most of last year. They beefed up the interior of the offensive line in FA, and combined with McDaniel’s quick passing motion game should help keep pressure off Herbert and allow him to take advantage of his arm strength and processing speed. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson provide explosive targets in the passing game, while second year back Omarian Hampton is one of the more exciting young running backs in the league. I really this offense on paper, and despite his tenure in Miami McDaniel is a proven strong offensive coach, and I think he will get the most out of Herbert and allow Harbaugh and Co to focus on the defense. The loss of coordinator Jesse Minter to the head coaching job in Baltimore is tough, but the Chargers defense has enough talent particularly at edge in Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu to make up for it. Derwin James leads the secondary, but the chargers lack a true shutdown corner back which might present some problems against the better teams, although Donte Jackson (arrived via free agency) should help. If there’s one area of concern on defense its the linebacking core here, which leaves a lot to be desired. The Chargers have had back to back 11 win seasons, yet haven’t won a playoff game. Herbert has felt on the cusp of excellence for his entire career, but the hiring of McDaniel could catapult him into the MVP conversation. I think LAC wins the West, and is a serious contender in the AFC if the offensive line can protect Herbert.