To get ready for the NFL season, I decided to do some quick thoughts on every team. No fancy graphics or analysis this time, just got old fashioned thoughts and updates where we stand heading into start of a new year in a few days.
We’ve covered the other conference AFC North , AFC East, AFC South and AFC West.
Now it’s time to cover the NFC, which I think overall is the stronger conference, and where I think the eventual Super Bowl champion will come from, but first we have to get through the dregs of the group.
Starting with the never that good but always somewhat entertaining division the NFC South.
Let’s get into it.
[ This project was started before the regular season kicked off, and I was not able to get through all eight divisions before the start of Week One. Unfortunately, I am just a man with a laptop and other responsibilites so alas, we will do the rest in real time, factoring in the week one results. This is the last division that won’t address what we have seen so far. ]
Atlanta Falcons - O/U 6.5 Wins
Any football team really needs a quarterback. It’s what this all boils down to. Being great isn’t necessarily a prerequisite of success, they can be merely functional, and a team can win. It helps if you have a franchise guy, but even just competent play can get you by. A lot teams win games on their QB not losing games more so than winning them.
The worst place to be is without a plan at QB. It makes people in this profession do weird things.
Back in March of 2024, after luring Kirk Cousins from the Minnesota Vikings with a four year, $180m ($100m of it guaranteed) contract, it looked like the Falcons were going to be set at the position in the near term.
They had really exciting young players, like running back Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and Drake London at wideout. Cousins veteran prescience and experience would help Atlanta rule a division constantly up for grabs without a bonafide yearly contender. It made sense.
Then former GM Terry Fontenot took a gamble, and drafted quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (who had just led Washington to the national championship game) in the first round at #8 overall. The Falcons opted to draft a quarterback of the future, before they needed to, instead of immediate help at the time, to bolster the team around Cousins and the skill players they already had.
Honestly, there is logic in the move. Sometimes, the best time to draft a QB is when you don’t need one. The Rams did it this year with Ty Simpson. Aaron Rodgers (behind Brett Favre) and Patrick Mahomes (behind Alex Smith) will always be the mold for “draft a QB when you have a starter and let him develop into a franchise guy” roadmap. It even happened to Rodgers in a role reversal with Jordan Love in Green Bay.
The logic is there, but it’s a massive gamble. You better be right, or risk not only your job but the franchise path for the next half a decade at least.
Given Penix’s injury history in college (two ACL tears, two shoulder injuries) it was an even bigger risk. The kind that regimes don’t survive, and lo and behold, there is new football leadership in Atlanta.
This is an extended background into the Falcons situation because 1) it really does weigh on everything about this team in 2026 and 2) I don’t have much to say about this team otherwise.
The Falcons signed Tua for pennies, after Miami decided to pay him $90 not to play for them. Tua is slated to start the season for the Falcons, but he has his own long list of health issues and cannot be expected to play a full season at this point. Penix was average in his starts before injury last year, but the fact he couldn’t wrestle the job away from Tagovailoa doesn’t project well for his job security moving forward.
The Falcons probably have the most depressing QB situation in the league outside of Cleveland, and that is what is going to hold them back this year. New Coach (speaking of Cleveland) Kevin Stefanski is a proven offensive coach that should help players like Robinson, London, and Pitts produce, but with a suspect offensive line and lack of a perimeter threat outside of London, this offense lacks depth across positions.
The defense isn’t much better, with no notable pass rush pressure, and really only Jesse Bates in the secondary as a defensive playmaker.
The Falcons are going to be in prime position to draft one of the signal callers in this year’s draft, and new General Manager Ian Cunningham and President Matt Ryan (yes, that Matt Ryan) are going to want to put their own stamp on the franchise and get out of the mistakes of the other guy. It’s going to be a long year in the ATL.
New Orleans Saints - O/U 7.5 Wins
The Saints, in the second year of the Kellen Moore regime, are hoping they found their QB of the future in the second round last year. Tyler Shough out of Louisville took the Saints by storm to end last year as the Saints won four of their final five games.
Shough wasn’t just a bystander but a major reason why New Orleans was competitive down the stretch. He finished his 9 starts with a 67% completion rate, 13 total touchdowns, and strong advanced metrics especially on third down, giving the Saints hope they found a gem in the 26 year old. Shough being on a rookie contract also gives the Saints the ability to surround him with strong receiving talent like Chris Olave (recently signed to an extension), and rookie wideout Jordan Tyson who (if he can stay healthy, he already is injured from camp and had injury issues in college) gives the Saints offense two very explosive pass catchers.
Outside of Shough and the two exciting receivers, there is not a ton to get excited about on offense. Travis Etienne Jr., signed in free agency, is in to carry the load in the run game while Kamara recovers from a sprained MCL—but the offensive line doesn’t project to be too impressive.
The defense is where things really start to get ugly for the Saints.
Cam Jordan and a deep defensive line should help, but overall a lack of playmakers at linebacker and in the secondary is not ideal in the modern NFL. The Saints scream to me as a team that is in desperate need of building up the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year, and I am lukewarm on the Shough/December hype, which seem mostly driven by playing teams with bad/backup QBs.
Carolina Panthers - O/U 7.5 Wins
The Panthers are on the right trajectory.
Carolina has gone from 2-15, 5-12, and 8-9 over the last three years, and backed into an NFC South division title last year.
The fact that the Panthers gave the Rams, a legitimate Super Bowl contender, all they could handle in the Wild Card round, was one of the more surprising developments around the league last year.
But as always, it comes down to the quarterback position and I am not sure how much I trust Bryce Young as a franchise quarterback. Physical bias aside (Young is 5’10. The list of successful sub 6-foot quarterbacks is non-existent), Young’s stats last year show more development as a game manager than a guy you took #1 overall after winning a Heisman at Alabama. With his fifth year option exercised, and Andy Dalton gone, this is the prove it year for Young, not only as the Panther’s franchise leader but more likely his career in the NFL.
The Panthers are doing all they can to help him, and last year’s first round pick Tetairoa McMillan (who won Offensive Rookie of the Year) is a legitimate star at receiver—the biggest threat they’ve had offensively since Steve Smith Jr. days. They drafted an offensive tackle in the first round, and invested heavily in the defense in the offseason (Carolina was one of the worst sack generating defenses in the league last year). However, the Panthers offense doesn’t reek of difference makers outside of McMillan, and losing Rico Dowdle to free agency won’t help.
Making matters worse, both starting tackles are dealing with season ending injuries (not ideal), forcing Rasheed Walker and aforementioned rookie Monroe Freeling into starting roles. The defense should be slightly better, but there is a lack of star power and depth on that side to truly shift the tide.
There is a world where Young shows another leap, McMillan keeps ascending, the Panthers have some depth players we aren’t talking about that ascend to stardom, and they win a weak division again—I just don’t see that being this world, especially with the schedule of playing the AFC and NFC North throughout the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - O/U 8.5 Wins
I really should have just named this series, “talking about every team’s quarterback situation”, because it feels like that’s all it really ever boils down to. It’s the nature of the league and sport. It’s why these guys get paid the most, and have their own Netflix show.
Had I written this section a week ago, it would have revolved around the uncertainty regarding Baker Mayfield’s contract situation—which ended before the season with a three-year, $165m extension. What’s ironic is, I actually was more optimistic about Tampa with the Mayfield contract drama, which is not something that is wholly logical, but rather about Baker’s superhuman ability to turn any slight or perceived disrespect into cataclysmic fire of motivation that seemingly lifts him to outperformance every step of his career.
Being counted out and disrespected by his own management and ownership?
I could only assume Mayfield would have taken out this aggression on every opponent the Bucs faced and put up elite numbers to show his own organization how badly they messed up.
Alas, the QB got his contract and the Bucs now can focus on the season and the next few years without worrying about a rotating door of QBs. I just would have been really excited to see the natural endpoint of Baker’s revenge ethos.
I guess it’s time to talk about the actual team?
Tampa is the most solid team in this division, but right below the threshold of an actual contender especially in the NFC. Tristan Wirfs is one of the best tackles in the league, and the anchor of their offensive line. One defense, Antoine Winfield Jr. is one of the best turnover creators in the league at the safety position. Defensive tackle Vita Vea received an extension, locking down the anchor of their d-line through 2027. Todd Bowles has shown the ability to get more out of less on the defensive side of the ball, but last year the unit struggled especially down the stretch where Tampa’s division lead collapsed from under them.
Emeka Egbuka, last year’s first round pick, put up a solid rookie season, but with the loss of Mike Evans the Bucs will rely on Chris Godwin (coming off consecutive years missing multiple games with injuries) to be the second perimeter threat. Kenneth Gainwell, signed in FA, proved to be a difference maker for the Steelers last year, but I am not sure he’s a bellwether back.
Ultimately when going through this division, Tampa has the least amount of questions on the offensive and defensive lines—the latter being bolstered with first round pick Rueben Bain out of Miami. With an experienced skill position group (if lacking high end star power), and signing Alex Anzalone in free agency gives their linebacking core a huge boost and also adds areas to like with this team.
No one in this division is a true contender, but I have the least amount of concern about the Bucs and every position group screams “solid to okay”, with the D-line having the chance to be scary if Bain becomes a guy.