Field Notes: The Edmonton Oilers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Drew Allar
Bad Times in Edmonton, Pens Get Eliminated, and Gambling on Upside
Hello family, friends, casual acquaintances, random internet bypassers - spring has fully sprung, and we are in what I consider to be the second-best period of the year for a sports fan (September - November is unquestionably the best). Spring gives us the NBA and NHL playoffs, baseball in full swing, and the NFL offseason’s biggest moment the annual draft. The weather is improving, vibes are high (or low depending on the current status of your team), and there’s plenty to talk about.
Let’s get into some topics, working backwards chronologically, that have been on my mind the last few weeks.
Connor McDavid, is Straight Up Not Having a Good Time
Aside from the Florida Panthers, no team in the NHL has had more success over the last three years than the Edmonton Oilers. After a decade as one of the worst teams through the mid-2000s to the 2010s, the Oilers were rewarded by the draft lottery gods for the fourth time in 2015 when generational prospect Connor McDavid was available. “Generational” is a term that gets used far too often with prospects, but in McDavid’s case, he has lived up to the billing.
He is without a doubt the current best player in the league and will almost certainly win a fourth MVP trophy this year. Edmonton also had the fortune of finding another home-grown superstar to be McDavid’s running mate, and incredibly Leon Draisaitl has also become a superstar.
The hardest thing to do in sports is draft and develop a legitimate superstar franchise player, capable of carrying your team to a championship(s). The Penguins did it with Malkin and Crosby, the Blackhawks dynasty with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, and Edmonton, despite years of futility, found themselves with McDavid and Draisaitl. The dynamic duo has almost single-handedly brought the Oilers a championship - coming within one shot in Game 7 two years ago (after being down 3-0), and getting back to the final round last year before losing in six games to the Panthers yet again.
Look at the breakdown in the teams results with McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice versus when they are not, per Adam Gretz recent post on McDavid.
McDavid signed a two-year extension right before the start of the season, below market value to commit to Edmonton. However, a two-year term clearly sent a message to management and ownership that at nearing thirty and having achieved every individual accolade possible, McDavid will not give Edmonton unlimited chances to keep trying and failing to build a true championship contending team around him and Draisaitl. The team chose to employ disgraced former Blackhawks’ general manager Stan Bowman, whose moves to improve the team this year consist of a whole lot of nothing (hyperlink) and trading volatile goaltender Stuart Skinner for *checks notes* extremely volatile, injury-prone goaltender Tristan Jarry. Jarry also has another two years on his contract at $5.5m per year, while Skinner is an unrestricted free agent after the year. Bowman also included defenseman Brett Kulak and a second-round draft pick to get Pittsburgh to give them Jarry - who clearly had worn out his welcome in the Steel City and whose contract had become a massive burden on the Penguins.
Unsurprisingly, Edmonton’s lack of depth around their two superstars, their volatile goaltending, and the fact they have played more games than any team besides Florida (whose injuries and fatigue resulted in them not even making the playoffs this year) caught up to them, and they were quickly eliminated in the first round against the young, upstart Anaheim Ducks.
Immediately after being eliminated, McDavid had some revealing words about his team.
We were an average team all year. Um, you know, um an average team with high expectations. You're going to be disappointed.
Emotion can get the best of a competitor, especially right after a defeat that ends their season. Surely, with a day or two to let the emotions subside, McDavid and Draisaitl would be a little more optimistic.
Nope.
Yes, I am concerned because we're not trending in the right direction. We've taken big steps backwards, and we got to get a grip of this and head back in the right direction.
McDavid and Draisaitl, in extremely honest and candid fashion that is rare for professional hockey players, essentially said they are not happy with things. Draisaitl is signed long term, but McDavid’s contract expires in two years, and if both are unhappy, could ask out sooner than later. Edmonton would not allow either to go into the the final years of a contract and risk losing them for nothing via free agency (ala Mitch Marner in Toronto). Some difficult conversations need to be had. Edmonton, after continually going all-in to try and surround their superstars with immediate help, have almost no high-end draft capital to work with.
They do not have a first round pick until 2028. It is going to be difficult to swing any sort of big time trade for an immediate difference maker, without any high end draft picks. Their salary cap situation is less than optimal, especially with multiple free agents and a less than ideal free agent pool to go after with said money.
McDavid will be 30 the next time the Oilers play a playoff game. Leon is already 30. The alarms should be ringing off the hook in Edmonton, and you have to seriously wonder if the team needs to either accept it has mismanaged the primes of its superstars, and make some miracle moves, or try to get what would certainly be the biggest haul of a return ever and start this whole process again (for the third time).
McDavid also needs to consider if he’s willing to waste another two years, while he is still elite, metaphorically skating into a brick wall while the people in charge of running the team make unforced error after unforced error.
It will be fascinating to watch it play out. He should probably give his team Canada Captain and Director of Player Personnel a call, who also happen to have a plethora of draft capital and salary cap space. Just a thought.
The Pittsburgh Penguins eliminated by the Philadelphia Flyers
After a completely unexpected, entertaining, and overall great regular season, the Penguins were eliminated by cross-state rivals in the first round of the playoffs in Game 6, losing 1-0 in overtime. After completely no-showing games 1-3, the Penguins mounted a respectable effort to get back into the series, but left themselves no margin for error for the rest of the way.
Despite failing to win a playoff series once again (they have failed to advance past the first round since 2018) - this season was unquestionably a success for the black and gold. The only contention the Penguins we’re expected to compete for in the preseason was the lottery for top prospect Gavin McKenna. There we’re questions about Crosby’s future in Pittsburgh, and the team responded by finishing second in the metropolitan division, bringing in young talent such as Ben Kindel, and having their “Big 3” future Hall of Famers provide a proper send-off.
TBD whether it truly is the end of the era - Malkin is an unrestricted free agent and curiously has not been offered a contract after a very good season. Letang has two more years on his contract and played well in the back half of the Flyers series, but whose on-ice play has trended in the wrong direction more dramatically than his counterparts. If this is the end, a great season and a spirited almost comeback against their biggest rivals is a better send off than tanking for the top pick would have been. Even with a new Malkin contract, the Penguins have the most cap space of any team, and plenty of draft picks.
I suspect General Manager Kyle Dubas will make a big move this summer, and the Penguins will be back in the playoffs again next year.
Drew Allar is a Pittsburgh Steeler
The most interesting, for better or worse, development for myself personally over the last few weeks is that Steelers selected Quarterback Drew Allar out of Penn State with one of their third round picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. There was no world in which the Steelers didn’t draft a quarterback this year in one of the middle rounds. After first overall pick Fernando Mendoza, this was a less than desirable quarterback draft, with pretty much every prospect after Mendoza coming with serious question marks or red flags.
When the Steelers hired Mike McCarthy this offseason, after the surprising departure of Mike Tomlin, the decision makers pretty much said it was because of his history of working with Quarterbacks. Whether Aaron Rodgers decides he is not ready to become a full-time conspiracy theorist ayahuasca salesmen, or last year’s sixth round pick Will Howard takes the reins - it made sense to add another developmental quarterback. I have always subscribed to the belief that especially with quarterbacks, given how impactful they are to the success of your team in the long and short term, you really need to just keep rolling the dice until you hit on one.
In that vein, I actually think the Allar pick is the right one to make. This is not “high floor/low ceiling/safe starter” pick, it is long tail outcomes either way. Either he ends up being really really good, or really really bad. There is no in-between. Allar has all the physical tools you would come up with if asked to design an ideal quarterback. He is everything traditional “football men” have preached about the position for years.
The reason the Steelers were able to select him, and why he was available in the third round, was because throughout his four years at Penn State, Allar failed to put it all together, and take the step from highly touted prospect to elite performer. He never lived up to the billing as the #1 quarterback recruit in the nation, never was able to use those dreamlike physical traits in a way that resulted in wins to get Penn State over the top against the Michigans, Oregons, and Ohio State’s. He continually struggled with accuracy, consistency, and footwork. That is not typically what you look for when drafting a quarterback in the NFL. However, if McCarthy and staff can fix those things, which most draft experts say is fixable - then the upside is worth the swing. If you are going to roll the dice on a quarterback with flaws, the upside needs to be worth it.
You cannot coach a rocket arm, you cannot develop a guy into having a 6’5 frame. In this sense, the pick is the right move. I am not convinced a Carson Beck or Garrett Nussmeier would have been any safer a pick than Allar, and at least he has higher potential to be a difference maker at the game’s most important position, given his physical skillset. Allar should have the luxury of sitting and developing behind the scenes this year, whether Rodgers comes back or not. At this point, I am skeptical it is all going to come together in the NFL as someone who watched every single one of his college snaps.
However, I will admit, it will take me exactly one good throw in a meaningless pre-season game to get irrationally optimistic and believe they have found their next franchise quarterback after wandering in mediocrity after Ben Roethlisberger retired.
I am ready to get hurt again.