To get ready for the NFL season, I decided to do some quick thoughts on every team. No fancy graphics or analysis this time, just got old fashioned thoughts and updates where we stand heading into start of a new year in a few days.
We started with the AFC North, and now we work our way to division with the defending conference champs, a true Super Bowl contender, and two rebuilds.
Miami Dolphins - O/U 4.5 Wins
“Tanking” in the NFL really isn’t a thing, but don’t tell that to Miami, who after firing Mike McDaniel and paying Tua Tagovailoa a record $99.2m not to play quarterback for them anymore, are entering year one of what looks like a prolonged rebuild. Despite signing Malik Willis (who looked promising for Green Bay in relief of Jordan Love after a rough start to his career in Tennessee), the Dolphins turned around and traded their best wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos for a first, third and fourth round pick. Miami’s wide receiving core is now made up of Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and rookie Caleb Douglas—not exactly a core set up to optimize your young quarterback. The defense is made up of mostly young players in their first three years across the board with developmental upside, but this looks like a group lacking in star power and veteran leadership. Tough situation for first-time head coach Jeff Hafley to walk into. Miami will be one of the teams circling the best non-QB prospects in this years draft (unless Willis is a disaster which is not out of the realm of possibility). The Dolphins are in accumulate draft capital mode, and take your lumps until Tua’s dead cap hit is off the books.
New York Jets - O/U 5.5 Wins
Picking on the New York Jets, the equivalent of drop kicking a toddler on the school playground and feeling good about yourself, is lazy and at this point quite cruel.
So I’m not going to do it. It’s going to be another brutal fall for Jets’ fans, but it might be slightly better. Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall are legitimate offensive weapons, they seemingly have stalwarts at tackle in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, and exciting tight end prospects in Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq. Will McDonald and rookie David Bailey give them a pair of exciting edge rushers.
The secondary and linebacking core, and just overall talent level needs some help, but I like the Minkah Fitzpatrick acquisition, even if he is more of a high-floor type player then difference maker at this point. At quarterback you have the nostalgia reunion tour of Geno Smith after his stints in Seattle in Oakland (can it be a reunion tour if the first time was an absolute disaster but you’re running it back because the alternative was worse? Like if you and your high school girlfriend broke up but got back together after college when you both were still living at home at 23?). Aaron Glenn completely overhauled his entire staff, never a great sign only one year into a regime, and is probably the odds on favorite first coach fired. But idk, I don’t hate this team? I think I like this team to win more than five games if they get competent quarterback play, and the defense is able to create slightly more turnovers (something they literally couldn’t do last year, they didn’t have a single interception). Am I talking myself into the Jets? Time to move on.
New England Patriots - O/U 10.5 Wins
The Patriots shocked the collective football world (besides us ball knowers) last year orchestrating one of the most impressive single season turn arounds, going 14-3 and representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Drake Maye had a true breakout year, finishing second in MVP voting, and the team went out and got Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown to bolster the offensive passing game. We know, despite his off-field judgement, Mike Vrabel will have a solid defensive unit, but the lack of true pressure generators and linebacker depth makes one question if this unit can hold up against a much tougher schedule this year. Will contract extension tension with cornerback Christian Gonzalez drag into the season? He is a player the Pats can ill-afford to not have on the field at 100%. The Patriots will continue to be on an upward trend as an organization but I have a hard time believing they will be able to repeat last year’s success. You could argue they were a CJ Stroud performance away from losing in the divisional round, and certainly if Bo Nix is healthy (and Denver does not get his with a snow tundra at halftime)—the AFC championship game looks very different. Will Campbell and the offensive line were also exposed in the Super Bowl pretty jarringly, but mainly believe Maye and Cambell’s health was the bigger factor there. Despite maybe having a slightly more solid roster top to bottom then Buffalo, my more controversial take for this year is I think the Pats take a step back and miss the playoffs this year, despite the offseason acquisitions on offense.
Buffalo Bills - O/U 10.5 Wins
After failing to make it out of the divisional round in 2025, the Bills fired Sean McDermott and promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to Head Coach (his first head coaching job in football). New coordinators across the board. They traded for deep threat DJ Moore. Signed Bradley Chubb, C.J. Gardner-Johnson to boost the defense. Important stuff. None of it matters. All that matters is Josh Allen. The Bills will go as Josh Allen goes. He is probably the best player in the NFL, and a true unicorn that has broken scouts’ brains. He has done everything on an individual level. But at some point, to put my own spin on one of our most famous scholars Ric Flair the nature boy, if you’re gonna be the guy—you gotta be the guy. Allen was very erratic in the Wild Card round last year against the Jags, and essentially lost the game for the Bills in the Divisional match up with soul crushing turnovers.
The regular season doesn’t matter. He needs those Josh Allen moments in December and January.
After coming agonizingly close, the Bills have seemingly struggled to finally take that leap, and Josh has struggled when the lights are brightest. To truly go down as one of the greats, he at least has to get to the Super Bowl.
I think this is the year the Bills do it, for no other reason than I think Josh finally has his run where the guy we watch all regular season does it in the playoffs. I think his relationship with Brady gives him complete comfort and control on the offense, and the defense is good enough to keep thme in any game. But if Josh has another playoff stinker, you seriously have to start to wonder if he is going to be this generation’s Dan Marino, and if we’ve entered the “post-franchise QB” era in the NFL.